The first issue that the Newsletter points to is the rise in the area's unemployment rate from 8.5% in October 2008 to 14.9% in April 2009. Subsequently, we have seen the unemployment rate rise further to where it is currently 15.4%.
The next issue that the newsletter delves into is the area's Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI) level. This periodical shows that PCPI rose from $26,101 in in 2004 to $29,084 in 2007 -- the number has risen to $29,385 for the year 2008. Pointed out is that the 9.3% rate of increase over the 4 year span, from 2003 to 2006, did not keep up with the nation's inflation rate of 9.8%. Also shown is the variance in PCPI per county where Caldwell County has the lowest PCPI ($27,240) and Catawba County has the highest ($31,051).
PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA IN CURRENT DOLLARS for the year 2008 (not from the newsletter), puts these numbers in perspective. The State with the highest PCPI is Connecticut ($56,248) and the State with the lowest is Mississippi ($29,569). North Carolina has a PCPI of $34,439 and is ranked #36 out of the 50 States. The average PCPI in the U.S. was $39,751.
Comparing other MSAs in North Carolina, Durham's PCPI is $39,383, Raleigh-Cary, NC is $39,239, Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord is $38,962, Fayetteville is $37,248, Winston-Salem $36,128, Greensboro-High Point, NC is $34,263, Asheville is $33,238, and Wilmington is $33,036. Obviously this shows that we have the lowest Per Capita Personal Income of any of the Large MSAs in the State of North Carolina and it really isn't even close.
The next category that Taylor looked at is one that has been a Pet Peeve with myself, and several other people that I know, for what is going on several years. The Nation as a whole is getting older, but what the stats in this category show is that Hickory is aging dramatically. It is my opinion that this has happened mostly because of the combination of a lack of opportunity for the younger generation and local leadership's insistence on marketing our area towards retirees.
The Population in our Metro for the ages 18 to 44 grew from 130,033 to 130,078 from the year 2000 to 2008. That means we grew by 45 people, in that age bracket, during that time period. During that same time period, the 45 to 64 age bracket population grew from 83,612 to 97,698, which is a 16.8% increase. The 65+ age bracket population increased from 46,056 to 50,559, which is a 9.8% total increase. When the numbers are carried out further what we see is that our overall population increased by 5.67%, which consisted of the 0 to 44 age bracket increasing by a microscopic .38% and the 45+ age bracket increasing by 14.34%.
Can you now see the pulpit that I have been preaching from on this issue? Young people renew and revitalize a community. Look at the number of children being born. The 0 to 4 year old age bracket has decreased by -7.8% and this is a direct result of the emigration of adults of child bearing age from this community. The 5 to 17 age bracket is below the overall average by over 27%, which shows that this trend has been carrying on longer than four years (plus the data lag). This trend most likely goes back to the aftermath of this decade's first recession.
Continuing on with Taylor's data, we are given a comparative chart to other MSAs in North Carolina. What we see is that the areas with the most positive economic outlooks correlate with the growth in the age 18 to 44 age bracket. Wilmington grew 21.5% in this demographic, Raleigh-Cary 17.3%, Charlotte 11%, Jacksonville 8.2%, Greenville 6.8%, Asheville 6.4%. If you look at the Milken Institute rankings, these were the success stories from our state. Only one city, Fayetteville, with a decrease in this Demo had a positive outlook according to Milken and the loss of this Demo (in Fayetteville) may be due to emigration caused by military issues. Hmmm...It's starting to make sense isn't it.
Taylor states that the number of people over age 65 in the Hickory Metro was the third highest percentage in the state at 14%. Only Asheville (17.0%) and Wilmington (14.7%) had a higher percentage of population from that Demo. Raleigh's percentage from that Demo stands at 8.9% and Charlotte is at 10.0% by comparison.
You can ask anyone who knows me. I have hung out with older generations since I was knee high to a grasshopper. I love old people. I believe any wisdom I have is due to the time that I have been around seniors and peppered them with question after question. I don't want to run off or harm the older generations. I believe most of them will be the first to tell you, we cannot afford to market ourselves towards seniors at the expense of the younger population. It's like trying to squeeze out everything from Harvest without saving and sowing anymore seeds.
Taylor makes a lot of projections from the current statistics and trends that show our community continuing to age even more drastically over the next 15 years or so, until the life of the Baby Boomers has run its course. Much of what we are experiencing is due to a natural progression of that trend, but I honestly believe that this community has exacerbated that trend at the expense of economic growth. I think many of our leaders have mistakenly equated successful Marketing and PR towards the older demographic with sound Dynamic Economic policy.
Think about the life tendencies of retirees versus twenty and thirty-somethings. There is a reason why Manhattan advertising agencies market towards the younger demographic. They are the consumers. Why do we want to attempt to buck that trend. Look at what South Florida is experiencing due to their retirement communities. Do we really want to follow them down that dead end path?
I think that there are many elements to this loss of the younger Demographic that have played a role in our current malaise. We have to restore balance to this community and in my opinion the first step towards doing that is to attempt to retain our own young people and attract young outsiders. It will take a lot of hard work expressly geared towards this challenge to change these trends, but I honestly believe that the evidence of communities doing better than we are points us right to this conclusion.
2 comments:
Thanks for the article. I wish more in the area would get behind groups like Hickory Young Professionals. As a part of that group, I know the area has a lot to offer. Though we are not always on the same page with the older generation, younger people do lead to positive economic impacts on a community. However, we need more from our parent's and grandparent's generation. By that I mean, we need more support, not just financially, but also in spreading the word to the entire unifour area. I grew up here, came back from Raleigh(and other areas) and started a business here. I know there is much we can do....we just need more people engaged and involved. People like my parents and grandparents have given so much....now it is time for others to fill those shoes. I'm ready and I know you are....hopefully more will join us.
Excellent... face the truth with the truth. I hope that your Hickory Young Professionals group will continue to grow. We need more leadership in this community and that type of group can lead to exactly that.
None of us can afford to come at the issues we face from strictly our own angle. We have to work in collaboration. I hope that the Boomers will come to the realization that we do need (and want) their help. That bubble moving through the system could be the most destructive force this country has ever seen, if they don't wake up and see the effect that they are having on all of the systems in our country.
It will be the Baby Boomers choice about the legacy they leave behind to this country. I have spoken to many of them who do realize this and yet others seem to be totally uncaring or oblivious to what is happening all around us.
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