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Monday, July 26, 2010
What this graphic shows is the median duration of unemployment of the nationally unemployed from July 1967 to June 2010. Prior to the beginning of this depression, the longest duration of unemployment, since the inception of these statistics, was 12.3 months in May 1983.
The recession of the early 1980's had an effect on unemployment where median unemployment duration lasted over 9 months from September 1982 to November 1983 with a peak of 12.3 months in May 1983. The recession of the early 1990s had an effect where median duration of unemployment lasted 9 months in 9 of 10 months from February 1994 to November 1994 with a peak of 11.5 months in June 2003. The recession of the early 2000s had an effect where the median duration of unemployment lasted 9 months in 37 of 40 months from May 2002 to August 2005 with a peak of 11.5 months in June 2003.
If we look at the data from this statistical data set, what we see is a systemic meltdown of our current job market attributable to occupational displacement, which I believe relates to the destruction of the manufacturing capacity of the United States. The effects of this meltdown show that the median duration of unemployment has been over 9 months for every month from June 2008 to present (and over 10 months from August 2008 to present with the exception of 1 month). The latest data reaches a peak of 25.5 months in the June 2010 and appears to be continuing to climb.
This is the reason why current Unemployment as reported in most press outlets is useless. If the median duration of unemployment is over 110 weeks (approximately 25.5 months), then most of the people associated with these unemployment benefits have exhausted their unemployment, because median means that there are as many people over 25.5 months being unemployed as under and the maximum duration of unemployment benefits, including emergency benefits, is 79 months in most states (How many weeks do I get?).
Do you understand this? It means that any semblance of any media outlet telling you that unemployment rates are falling is complete and utter bunk!
The unemployed are basically out of luck and the government and newspapers are more interested in a song and dance routine than squaring up to the facts. So if these media outlets are going to keep up this charade, then it is time to find relevant sources of information. I'm not here to play charades. I am here to enlighten you to the truth of what is going on around us. I am facing it and I hope that you will join me, if you haven't already.