Normalcy Bias - Are you prepared for unexpected events?

The Normalcy Bias - (Wikipedia) - refers to an extreme mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of the government to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred that it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.

Possible causes - The normalcy bias may be caused in part by the way the brain processes new data. Research suggests that even when the brain is calm, it takes 8–10 seconds to process new information. Stress slows the process, and when the brain cannot find an acceptable response to a situation, it fixates on a single solution that may or may not be correct. An evolutionary reason for this response could be that paralysis gives an animal a better chance of surviving an attack; predators are less likely to eat prey that isn't struggling.

Effects - The normalcy bias often results in unnecessary deaths in disaster situations. The lack of preparation for disasters often leads to inadequate shelter, supplies, and evacuation plans. Even when all these things are in place, individuals with a normalcy bias often refuse to leave their homes. Studies have shown that more than 70% of people check with others before deciding to evacuate.

The normalcy bias also causes people to drastically underestimate the effects of the disaster. Therefore, they think that everything will be all right, while information from the radio, television, or neighbors gives them reason to believe there is a risk. This creates a cognitive dissonance that they then must work to eliminate. Some manage to eliminate it by refusing to believe new warnings coming in and refusing to evacuate (maintaining the normalcy bias), while others eliminate the dissonance by escaping the danger. The possibility that some may refuse to evacuate causes significant problems in disaster planning.

Prevention - The negative effects can be combated through the four stages of disaster response:

* preparation, including publicly acknowledging the possibility of disaster and forming contingency plans
* warning, including issuing clear, unambiguous, and frequent warnings and helping the public to understand and believe them
* impact, the stage at which the contingency plans take effect and emergency services, rescue teams, and disaster relief teams work in tandem
* aftermath, or reestablishing equilibrium after the fact by providing supplies and aid to those in need

The Black Swan Theory or "Theory of Black Swan Events" was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

1. The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to their very nature of small probabilities)
3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.

The Ostrich Effect or “Normalcy Bias” Part 1 - The Almighty Dollar - Mark Birmingham

Everyone on the Titanic thought the ship was “unsinkable”. In a matter of a few hours, they watched it sink. One man warned of an attack on Pearl Harbor, but most thought that was “unthinkable”, until December 7, 1941. A few perceptive men warned of dangerous investment leveraging practices, before the stock market crash of 1929. 100,000 Jews left Germany before their 450,000 cultured, intelligent, Jewish countrymen were trapped by Nazi insanity. They thought the Nazi movement would pass without real consequence...

The Ostrich Effect or “Normalcy Bias” Part 2 - The Almighty Dollar - Mark Birmingham

If the Dollar is dethroned as the world’s reserve currency, which now seems inevitable to those willing to look for evidence, gasoline prices will double over night, and a series of events that might include a much deeper global recession. With a large spike in oil prices comes more expensive goods, especially food. This may be what survivalists have been preparing for. It’s the “speeding train” referred to in The Ostrich Effect Part 1. Naturally, we can’t imagine such madness occurring in the most powerful and affluent nation on the planet (a little “normalcy bias” perhaps?). But, when 46 state governments face crippling deficits for 2011, and every graph you dare to look at is shaped like a “hockey stick”, blatantly illustrating the over extension of credit, debt, and commensurate rise in commodity prices, it begs the question “how much more evidence do you need?” We, as a nation, are in the grip of a “normalcy bias“, which is an under-estimation of the effects of factual evidence.

The Hound: Has the government or the mainstream media been preparing for harsh economic realities, such as those seen in the immediate aftermath of the stock market crash of October 29, 1929. Why does our government and media continue to push the notion that things are improving. Does this not harm us? Does this not fit right into this idea of the "Normalcy Bias?"

I think that it is very important that we practice Situational Awareness. Situation Awareness (SA) involves being aware of what is happening around you to understand how information, events, and your own actions will impact your goals and objectives, both now and in the near future. Having complete, accurate and up-to-the-minute SA is essential where technological and situational complexity on the human decision-maker are a concern.

Has our government been giving us the information (honest data) that we need to properly operate our personal lives related to the financial crisis we are in? We are told that they don't want people to panic, but better to agitate people early in the process of preparation, than to have people be hysterical at or close to the point of impact during a critical event. We saw this on 9/11/2001 and when Katrina hit New Orleans. The calmer people are; the better their chance to survive a catastrophic event.

All I am getting at is that it is a good time to get prepared, because the dynamics of the economy don't look good. Be prepared to help yourself and your family in a time of crisis and then you will be able to help others. Be a part of the solution, not the problem!