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Sunday, March 4, 2012

Economic Stories of Relevance in Today's World -- March 4, 2012

Presenting The Truth Behind America's Fiscal And Employment Picture - Zero Hedge - Tyler Durden - 03/03/2012 - The chart below shows next tax revenues vs debt issuance YTD - go ahead and check: subtract year to date tax refunds from tax withholdings as of March 1 (link) and compare to debt issuance since October 1, 2011 (link).



Remember all that talk of a US employment based 'renaissance'? By definition, that would mean that more tax revenues have to be collected YTD compared to 2011, during which period the unemployment rate was logically far higher - after all it is a declining continuum, or so the BLS would have you believe. Because more people employed, means more taxes collected. Logic 101. Well, wrong.

As the next chart shows, comparing net withholdings, or total taxes withheld net of tax refunds, 2012 is now trending below the same period in 2011, by about $10 billion!



So let's get this straight: America has seen the number of people employed rise by 1.9 million people from January 2011 to January 2012, and its unemployment "decline" by 0.7% in the same period, which means more taxes paid and thus withheld, and yet the tax collections have dropped from a period when unemployment was 9.0%? Right.                Finally, even if in reality the government is somehow goosing (i.e., frontloading) refunds, all it means is that cash available to US consumers is higher than where it should be in reality, as all that has happened is that the variable responsible for 70% of the US economy has obtained more cash earlier than when it should have been disbursed. Which in turn means that the recent Personal Income and Spending data, which was so disappointing it caused Goldman to lower its Q1 GDP tracking forecast (and that is even before the gasoline price shock), is even worse when one factors out the time effect of refund collection - traditionally an economic boost as the cash is spent as quickly as it is received.              So.... what is this about the US economy improving again?




How The Oil Empire Will Strike Back - Inflection Points - Warren Pollock - February 29, 2012

Its Inherently simple,
-The world we rely upon depends on huge inputs of energy via oil
-It takes the force of Sea Empire to control, monopolize, and secure the flow of oil
-Oil through the force of empire collateralizes the reserve currency


The Reserve Currency
-The reserve currency facilitated the outsourcing of meaningful jobs to slave labor
-The reserve currency provides high domestic standards of living via financial jobs

The Cause and Effect
-The US is a large isolated island - Island America
-Island America depends on the force Sea Empire for its prosperity
-The US cannot afford to fund the Sea Empire

To bide time, and in failure, the US financial economy funded Sea Empire through the process of debt slavery
(Continued at Warren's Blog - link provided above)


White House applauds decision to build part of Keystone XL pipeline
- McClatchy Newspapers - Lesley Clark and Renee Schoof - February 27, 2012
- Washington - With President Barack Obama facing fire from Republicans over the rising cost of gasoline, the White House moved quickly Monday to trumpet a Canadian company's decision to build a section of the controversial Keystone XL pipeline from Cushing, Okla., to Houston after Obama blocked a longer path last month....          Obama's decision last month to reject the full 1,661-mile Keystone XL pipeline from Canada's tar sands has become a focal point of Republican efforts to portray him as responsible for the recent spike in gasoline prices, and they fault him for blocking a project they say would create jobs and reduce America's dependence on oil imports from unstable foreign sources.          A recent national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press suggests that Obama's Keystone decision could become a political liability. Though 37 percent of those surveyed said they'd not heard of the pipeline, 66 percent of those who had heard of it said the government should approve it, while just 23 percent opposed it...           TransCanada will be the second pipeline moving oil from Cushing to the Gulf Coast. The other is already built and owned by Enbridge Inc. The two pipelines will reduce the glut of oil in the Midwest "and in doing so will raise the price of oil in Cushing and the Midwest and will lower the price very slightly in the rest of the world," said Severin Borenstein, a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley.           Prices in the Midwest could go up between 10 and 30 cents a gallon, ending the region's cheaper gasoline compared to other areas, he said. If the full pipeline is constructed, the impact on world oil prices would "never really be noticed" because it would be so small, a few cents or less per gallon, that it would be "lost in the noise of other changes."



Housing prices fell in December, continue to hurt economic recovery - The Washington Post - Michael A. Fletcher - February 28, 2012 -The nation’s home prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2002, according to a private report, casting a troubling shadow over what has otherwise been a brightening economic recovery.                      Although analysts have been nervously eyeing rising oil prices and Europe’s struggling economy, Tuesday’s S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values report offered a sobering reminder that the still-shaky housing market remains one of the most potent threats to a robust recovery.              In December, the index fell 4 percent from a year earlier, after decreasing 3.9 percent in November. The decline was reported one day after another measure showed an encouraging increase in the number of people signing contracts to buy previously owned homes.                    The continued trouble in the housing market has proved to be among the most vexing problems in the economic downturn. Even as the stock market has reached a four-year high, the unemployment rate has declined sharply and consumer confidence has perked up, housing remains problematic, putting a damper on economic growth...               Overall, prices fell in 19 of the 20 cities in December compared with the same month in 2010. Only Detroit posted a year-over-year increase. Prices in Atlanta, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa dropped to their lowest points since the housing crisis began.                        At a national conference of home builders earlier this month in Florida, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that housing could either fuel a strong economic resurgence or slow it to a crawl. “The economic recovery has been disappointing in part because U.S. housing markets remain out of balance,” he said. “For these reasons, and because the troubled housing market depresses construction activity and employment, we need to continue to develop and implement policies that will help the housing sector get back on its feet.”



Goldman Sachs Executive Said to Be Focus of U.S. Insider Probe - Bloomberg - Patricia Hurtado - March 1, 2012 - A U.S. investigation of possible insider-trading by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) employees expanded to include a managing director whose name emerged at the trial of convicted hedge fund manager Raj Rajaratnam, a person with knowledge of the probe said....                  David Loeb, who works on Asia equity sales in New York and focuses on Taiwan, is a subject in the criminal investigation, said the person, who declined to be identified because the matter isn’t public. Loeb is the second Goldman Sachs employee said to be under federal scrutiny. Last month, Henry King, an analyst covering Taiwan, was identified as under investigation by the FBI, a person familiar with the case said.                   Goldman Sachs said in a Feb. 28 regulatory filing that “from time to time, the firm and its employees are the subject of or otherwise involved in regulatory investigations relating to insider trading, the potential misuse of material nonpublic information and the effectiveness of the firm’s insider trading controls and information barriers.”....                In October, the U.S. charged Rajaratnam’s friend Rajat Gupta, a former Goldman Sachs and Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) director, with insider trading. The government said he leaked nonpublic information to Rajaratnam. Gupta, who has denied wrongdoing, is scheduled for trial in May.                        Prosecutors didn’t disclose which stocks the second unidentified tipper, whom Rakoff called “Mr. X,” had allegedly disclosed to Rajaratnam.  Gupta’s lawyer, Gary Naftalis, declined to comment. Naftalis has argued that he should be permitted to use such information about other Goldman Sachs leaks in his defense of Gupta.                    As part of a related suit filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission against Gupta, Gupta’s lawyers sought to question Loeb under oath as well as Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein and other Goldman executives including Chief Financial Officer David Viniar, Cohn and John Bryan.                   In November, Rakoff ruled that Blankfein may be questioned before Gupta’s criminal trial begins. He said depositions of other Goldman Sachs officers must be conducted after the trial.
           






Ron Paul To Ben Bernanke: "People Lose Trust In The Government Because You Lie To Them About Inflation" 
- Anytime Ron Paul sits across from Ben Bernanke you know sparks will fly. Sure enough, they did: starting 3 mins 50 seconds into the clip below, Ron Paul, guns blazing, asks the Chairman if he does his own shopping, if he is aware of what true inflation is, and if he knows that Americans don't trust the government because they are being lied to about inflation. And it only gets better, once Paul starts brandishing a silver coin. The punchline: "The Fed will self-destruct anyway when the money is gone" - amen. And ironically letting the Fed keep on doing what it is doing will achieve that in the fastest possible way. In fact, letting the system cannibalize itself with no further hindrances may be the best option currently available - just go to town.



Your Rotten Monetary Policy Is Destroying This Country
- Lew Rockwell.com - February 29, 2012 - Before the United States House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services, Hearing on 'Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy,'



SBSS 17. Warren Buffett Paradigm Puppet - Don't Tread on me.com - February 29, 2012 
This is a direct assault on the paradigm’s “Golden Boy” Warren Buffet and one of my most powerful videos I have ever done In the on going silver educational series the Silver Bullet and the Silver Shield, we explore Warren Buffett’s purchase of 130 million ounces of silver and its mysterious link to Barclay’s SLV. Beyond that, it is a stunning attack on how this once great individual investor has degenerated into a irrelevant hack that now moonlights as a paradigm puppet.  Please share this video with your favorite blogs and social media sites.



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