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Sunday, April 8, 2012

Economic Stories of Relevance in Today's World -- April 8, 2012

NFP Big Miss: 120K, Expectations 205K, Unemployment 8.2%, "Not In Labor Force" At New All Time High - Zero Hedge - Tyler Durden - April 8, 2012 - March NFP big miss at just 120K. Unemployment rate declines from 8.3% to 8.2%. Futures slide, for at least a few minutes before the NEW QE TM rumor starts spreading. The household survey actually posted a decline in March from 142,065 to 142,034. Considering Birth Death added 90K to the NSA number, the actual number was almost unchanged. And as always, as we predicted when Goldman hiked its NFP forecast yesterday from 175K to 200K saying "if Goldman's recent predictive track record is any indication, tomorrow's NFP will be a disaster", Goldie once again skewers everyone. Finally, Joe LaVorgna's +250,000 forecast was just 100% off... as usual.                        The unemployment rate drops to 8.2% for one simple reason: the number of people not in the labor force is back to all time highs: 87,897,000.






US Needs To Generate 262K Jobs Each Month To Get Back To Breakeven - Zero Hedge - Tyler Durden - 04/06/2012 - This is the latest tally: since the start of the Second Great Depression, the US has lost a total of 5.2 million nonfarm payroll jobs, beginning with 138 million jobs in December 2007, and printing at 132.8 million as of 90 minutes ago. So far so good. The problem, however is that the denominator in the equation is not fixed, and as everyone knows the US labor force, despite the ridiculous BLS data fudging, is growing in line with population, albeit at a slower pace. According to all non-partisan budget forecasters, each month the labor force should be adding 90,000 people. Which in turn means that since December 2007, the labor force has really grown by 4.6 million. Adding these two together leads to a 10 million job deficit. So what has to happen for these 10 million to get promptly put back into jobs, and for America to get back to the ~5% unemployment rate it boasted just as the credit bubble peaked? Nothing too crazy: the country just has to create 262,000 jobs every month for the remainder of Obama's first, and now, by the looks of it, second term too. We are quite confident he can handle it.




Jobs Report: The Beginning of a Disappointing Trend? - Yahoo Finance - Contrary Indicator - Daniel Gross - April 6, 2012 - It's a good thing the stock market isn't open Friday. If it were, the disappointing March employment report, a rare piece of negative economic news this spring, would likely have caused stocks to nosedive. As it was, U.S. stock futures (which were open) slipped, the dollar is falling and Treasury prices are spiking on the report.                The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. economy added only 120,000 payroll jobs in March, a sharp decline from recent jobs growth. The unemployment rate slipped to 8.2 percent from 8.3 percent in February, but that's largely because the workforce declined. In short, this is the type of report that is more typical of an economy beginning to emerge from recession than one that has been growing for nearly three years.               The addition of 120,000 jobs represents the 15th straight month in which jobs were added. Compared with March 2011, there were 1.9 million more payroll jobs in the U.S. in March 2012. But this represents a sharp slowdown from the pace of job creation. In each of the previous three months, the economy had added more than 200,000 positions. As is typical, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised the job creation for previously reported months. The January figure was revised from a gain of 284,000 to a gain of 275,000, while the February figure was revised up from 227,000 jobs created to 240,000. Looking back, BLS discovered an extra 4,000 jobs that it hadn't detected last month — a negligible figure.



World food prices rise further, raising fears of unrest - Reuters - Svetlana Kovalyova and Veronica Brown - April 5, 2012 - Global food prices rose in March for a third straight month with more hikes to come, the UN's food agency said on Thursday, adding to fears of hunger and a new wave of social unrest in poor countries.               Record high prices for staple foods last year were one of the main factors that contributed to the Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as bread riots in other parts of the world.               The cost of food has risen again this year after coming down from a February 2011 record peak.


Higher gas prices could cause wider economic slowdown, economist says - Financial Post (Canada) - Jameson Berkow - April 4, 2012 - Gasoline prices, already near record highs of $1.40 per litre ($5.425/gallon) this week, could rise further if Middle East tensions escalate, further dampening the economic outlook.                   Oil prices are expected to remain relatively steady at about US$100 per barrel for the next year, which Mr. Guatieri said would either stabilize gas prices or even cause them to decline a little. However, he cautioned there was a “not insignificant” risk of the cost jumping another 25% (a 30% cumulative increase from last year) if tensions between the West and Iran continue to escalate.            A disruption in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices back up to their 2008 record highs of US$147 per barrel. Coupled with widespread refinery closures along the U.S. East Coast — more than one-third of refining capacity in the region has gone offline in recent months and Sunoco Inc. has threatened to close its massive Philadelphia facility this summer — and Mr. Guatieri believes Canada’s economic growth could slow to about 1.5% between this year and next, a full percentage point below BMO’s previous 2.5% growth forecast.


'Massive Wealth Destruction' Is About to Hit Investors: Marc Faber - CNBC - Jeff Cox - April 2, 2012 - Runaway government debts have triggered uncontrolled money printing that in turn will lead to inflation that will decimate portfolios, according to the latest forecast from "Dr. Doom" Marc Faber. Investors, particularly those in the "well-to-do" category, could lose about half their total wealth in the next few years as the consequences pile up from global government debt problems, Faber, the author of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, said on CNBC. Efforts to stem the debt problems have seen the Federal Reserve expand its balance sheet to nearly $3 trillion and other central banks implement aggressive liquidity programs as well, which Faber sees producing devastating inflation as well as other consequences.

The $15 Trillion Party - The Economic Collapse Blog

45 Signs That America Will Soon Be A Nation With A Very Tiny Elite And The Rest Of Us Will Be Poor
- The End of the American Dream Blog - April 3, 2012



U.S. Corporate Tax Rate Consequences - Infowars.com - James Hall - April 4, 2012 - Now that Japan lowered its own taxes, the U.S. stands on top with the dubious distinction of having the highest corporate tax rates. Claims that, when you consider all the tax loopholes, subsidies, deductions and tricks, the effective rate is not really the 35% level seem less reassuring. However, if you view any tax policy that focuses upon revenue collection, you miss the entire significance of the dynamics in trade. The slogan “Free Trade” applied in real terms, means capitulation of domestic production and prosperity for the sake of maximum international return on equity. In essence, the global corporatist supersedes the home domicile country for the joy of worldwide plunder. The United States runs away from these hard cold consequences out of some distorted motivation to become a programmed society, connected to Asian computer devices that broadcast the social destructive culture, while destroying the work ethic. Not all countries admire or model their economies accordingly. Reflected in their internal tax policies, there is a sharp contrast to that of the Uncle Sam stamp – No Longer Made in the USA. As the country weakens and the industrial foundations crumble, the excuses multiply. What do other countries understand that evades the mindset of those who cannot grasp the supply and demand equation?





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