Wall Street Journal: U.S. Economy Likely to Perform Poorly Over Next Decade

Wall Street Journal Article - U.S. Economy Likely to Perform Poorly Over Next Decade - By Luca Di Leo - January 3, 2010
This article points to the fact that the past decade 1999-2009 saw the worst growth (1.9% GDP) since the 1930s. And, "The economic recovery seen from the second half of 2009 has been driven by a government stimulus that will be fading in 2010." Also, "the large debt accumulated to counter the crisis will be a major headache for the U.S. economy."

That 1937 Feeling - By PAUL KRUGMAN - Published: January 3, 2010
As with all of Krugman's pontifications, his hopeful soliloquies eventually get around to reality. "During the good years of the last decade, such as they were, growth was driven by a housing boom and a consumer spending surge. Neither is coming back."

Obama already told you what was going to happen - Obama: Too much debt could fuel double-dip recession - By Caren Bohan - Reuters - November 18, 2009
Who ran up the debt?????

And before Mr. Obama there was Mr. Shell - 20 months of Recession (December 2007 to Present) - The Hickory Hound - James Thomas Shell - July 24, 2009

Believe it or not, we have been lucky so far. We made it through the hurricane season unscathed and we haven't had any game changing International incidents, but it does seem that Foreign relations aren't on a positive track. In other words, our good fortune in the Critical Events category will not last forever. And as I said on July 24...

I believe a double dip recession is inevitable, because you cannot have a real, sustainable economic recovery without a significant improvement in the job picture. We have real problems with our country's ability to grow jobs. The other issue is that of inflation. With as much money as we have seen put in the system, as soon as any signs of economic recovery come along, you are going to see a rise in commodity prices. That starts the cycle over again.

Until we find something to produce and the government gets off of the backs of job creators, it is going to be impossible to have a lasting and worthwhile recovery. Our leaders, in every level of government, are going to have to take some chances along the way, because we have fundamentally changed the economic structure of our nation. We cannot sit around and wait for the picture to improve. We are going to have to take proactive stances and government officials are going to have to find the inner strength needed to rediscover their roots as public servants.

If our government were a company, would you say it was well run? If you had a nest egg for retirement, would you let our current government take care of it? It is time that people start expecting our government to be run like a business. The government has a fiduciary responsibility to look out for everyones interests. Whether the government invests in a project or institutes a program, it is time to set some goals, assess the risks, implement the tasks in an efficient manner, and take care of the shareholders of the United States Treasury; which is supposed to be the Citizens of the United States.

Happy New Year 2010

Last year I asked people to admit that we hadn't lived up to expectations. In any 12 step program, the first step toward solving a problem is admitting that we have one. Well, I believe that we have come to an understanding that we have a problem. The new paradigm from 2009 is that it was a disappointing year, but we are going to work hard to turn things around in 2010 and hope that things will get better. Just smile and hope everything will get better. A good attitude will make everything better.

Like I said last year. Let's not talk about 2010 being our year. Let's make it our year. You want leadership? You want someone to come save the day? I have the answer. I have the solution. Get up from where you are now and go into the bathroom, turn on the cold water, cup your hands underneath the faucet and fill you hands, then bring it up to your face and douse your face with it. Then if you need to slap yourself a couple of times go ahead, because it is time that you wake up and understand that you are who you are looking for.

Don't be afraid to speak your mind and don't be afraid to take sides. We are in a time of change whether we like it or not. No comfort or security is on the way and that is the reality of this era. There is no reason to look for the easy way out, because you are only stalling your destiny. During times of great change it is best to take bold steps and make decisive decisions. During these times, the timid will be squashed.

I hope that you will read the article from last year based on what John Kennedy quoted from Dante's Inferno. It is entitled The Hottest Places in Hell.

I have learned a lot in the past year. Most of the people in this community don't realize the power that they grasp in their own hands. We are taught in school that we are supposed to look to others for leadership. This makes people uncomfortable about taking the lead role in projects or tasks. We are taught that our destiny is in others hands.

It is truly sad to see many of our leaders looking for leaders. If our leaders do not understand their roles and/or the context of leadership, then what does that say for our community's destiny. Government as an entity is supposed to our partner. They are not supposed to hold power over us. The only purpose of government is to help hold our society together as a cohesive unit. Washington is not supposed to be more powerful than Raleigh who in turn is supposed to be more powerful than Catawba County or Hickory. They are supposed to work together in unison to help people in their pursuit of Liberty.

You may not agree with the context that I have laid out above, but I hope that you might come to an understanding of my point of view. In my opinion, the opposite point of view is what has gotten us where we are today as a community. We have rendered ourselves powerless by abrogating our authority to a few people -- an oligarchy. The further we go up the chain, the fewer people who have to answer to us. And we have made them unaccountable for the decisions they make.

In my opinion, the more people work together to make decisions, the better the decisions will be, and the more accountable we will all be for our actions. We should not concentrate power in the hands of a few people, who have a vested interest in maintaining the power that they hold over us. That is what has kept us in this Status Quo mentality. These people we have vested power in have their egos at stake and they are more worried about their personal self-esteem than what is best for the people they serve.

I am scared to think of what this is all leading to. As long as people perceive they are in a comfort zone, then they will strive towards the status quo as long as possible; but if a sudden jolt causes discomfort then they will go berserk. Think of 9/11/2001, it brought us all together after the fact, but think of the hours of that day when everything was unfolding. Think of the chaos in New York City. Think about everyone on that bright blue skied morning and how quickly it was brought asunder. What if we had events that led to a protracted period like that. Are you going to look for a leader or are you going to be a leader?

Nothing has ever been the same since those events took place. Our economy has never been the same, our liberties are slowly being extracted, and trust is looked at as the naivete of the innocent. The road back to where we were will not come through the government. It must come through the people. The people must stand up and take charge and empower themselves.

We are now coming back to an election period that will be vitriolic. We must demand that the politicians give us a reason to support them. We should all be tired of voting against the other guy. We need people and causes that we can support. There are certain things that the vast majority of us can support through consensus. It is time that we start working on those issues and leave the divisiveness for another day. If we don't start building toward the future, then we will be sure to be sitting in rubble soon.

I know that this may not have been the positive message that some are seeking heading into the new year. I am sorry. I don't believe in hope. Hope is when you are looking for someone or something else to solve your problems. That is for children.

What I do have is faith. A belief that eventually the good in this world will win out over the bad. That those with good in their heart will take the challenges that lie before us and use them as the building blocks towards a brighter future. But, if we are unwilling to understand the meaning and context of these challenges, then we are not going to build the firm foundation that we desire to build tomorrow upon.

I would like to thank the 18,000 people who have read this blog so far. Whether you agree with me or not, it makes me feel good to know that people have spent time reading and interpreting my thoughts.

Thank You and God Bless You this Year,
James Thomas Shell

The American Corporatocracy

The estimated 29.6 million small businesses in the United States:
* Employ just over half of the country’s private sector workforce
* Hire 40 percent of high tech workers, such as scientists, engineers and computer workers
* Include 52 percent home-based businesses and two percent franchises
* Represent 97.3 percent of all the exporters of goods
* Represent 99.7 percent of all employer firms
* Generate a majority of the innovations that come from United States companies
Source: U.S. Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy, September 2009
Small Business Survival Rates

Small Business Openings & Closings in 2008:
* There were 627,200 new businesses, 595,600 business closures and 43,546 bankruptcies.
* Seven out of 10 new employer firms survive at least two years, and about half survive five years.
* Findings do not differ greatly across industry sectors.
Sources: U.S. Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy, September 2009

Down With Big Business - Paul Ryan, 12.11.09,
How the government is smothering dreams and stifling growth.

The Anti-Corporate GOP?
What happened to the party of business interests? - By Peter Suderman
Newsweek Web Exclusive - Oct 28, 2009

The Hound believes that small business is the backbone of America, yet we have created all of these barriers to entry that are making it harder and harder for small business entrepreneurs to initiate a business and secondarily to survive.

A frequent cause of small business bankruptcies is undercapitalization. There are a lot of great entrepreneurs out there with fabulous, innovative ideas; but we are regulating these people to death. Whether as primary or secondary costs, expressed or hidden, these regulations cost money. Think of all of the great businesses that have been started in a garage, basement, or backyard workshop. Is that even possible today? can you start a business on a shoestring budget?

Corporatism is a big problem in many aspects. A corporation is an institution that is granted a charter recognizing it as a separate legal entity having its own rights, privileges, and liabilities distinct from those of its members. These entities allow individuals to operate in a manner that small businesses cannot. It allows individuals to take more risks in the name of the corporate entity, that they will not be liable for in the event of business failure.

The largest companies can afford the lobbyists, the legal teams, and political contributions that allow them to massage legislation and manipulate the system in their favor. In many cases this has been done at the expense of small business and it has inhibited their ability to compete, grow, and prosper.

I certainly don't want to kick big business in the teeth. Businesses that have been around and have a history deserve to enjoy what they have worked hard to build. But, we have seen too many times where big business will step outside of their realm to squash businesses that might compete with them in the future.

Look at how the Big Oil companies lobbied legislative bodies for years to keep alternative energy companies from developing. These companies would not have been directly competing against Big Oil, but they may have competed for energy dollars in the future. Now Big Oil has turned into Big Energy and they are lobbying to get legislation passed that they were against 20 years ago. That is 20 years of wasted time, where entrepreneurial growth lost out to the marriage of Politics and Big Corporations. Folks, that limits the growth of our nation, that keeps our country from developing and transitioning into what it potentially can be.

I am not however saying that we need to protect Mom and Pop to give them a leg up either. We see it all the time on the local level, where Small Business people are peddling influence with their buddies to obtain special favors for their personal business at the expense of others. No, what I am talking about is a fair shake and equal protection under the law for all citizens.

As the citizens of this nation, we need to demand the end of lobbying and influence peddling in our governmental bodies. This is the root cause of the lack of leadership and bad legislation coming from the government. It is wasting money that matriculates through every part of our financial system and is passed on to consumers and the citizenry. We also need to put a stop to the revolving door between government and the private sector. I talked about it in this article Goldman Sachs' Treasury - The Biggest Conflict of Interest Ever from October 2008. Tell me, what has changed?

I personally believe in globalization and foreign trade. And if what was promised would have been delivered, then we would be in a much different situation today. Instead, we saw the vote buying and influence peddling create Least Common Denominator deals that helped the Corporateers and Washingtonians loot the treasury and fleece the American people. We need to have people who will demand fair trade or no trade. We need capital to foster creative endeavors to move forward, but where is the money that was supposed to facilitate that path? It's padding the pockets of the Wall Streeters.

Today, people either think the average government official is a lying scoundrel or is telling acceptable distortions of the truth; and that is all based upon their personal Republican-Democrat ideological paradigm. Hardly anyone feels they are being told the truth straight up. Everything has to be spun. We are at the proverbial fork in the road. We have built a system that lacks credibility and integrity. It is time to get back to basics or meet our demise. Which path will we take?

Heroes of the Future

I follow this gentleman, Warren E. Pollock, on youtube and on his blog, because I enjoy his in-depth philosophical discussions of history and current events, especially economic and finance issues.

The video above is excellent. He talks about the "Future Heroes," the younger generation born between 1982 and 2004.

He talks about a principle called something gained, something earned.
1) Remain true to yourself.
2) Find personal solutions.
3) Responsibility to yourself
4) Responsibility to others
5) Be your own leader - people follow the wrong leader. Relying on yourself keeps you from being lead astray.
6) Look far off in the distance

In being a leader and getting the message out about where humanity stands economically and socially.
1) Have endurance on telling the story
2) No such thing as truth just perception
3) Too few people have woken up
4) 2010 will be a year of "Social Consequences."

The Old World Order and Near Term U.S. politics
1) Be your own leader - We are electing people, because they are not the other guy and we are hoping for change. What we find out is that there is no change or they may be even worse.
2) Social differences don't matter in crises - the context of this era is that the Empire is in decline and our system is collapsing.

Personal Solutions - People of the past were able to scratch out an existence against amazing odds. They were a lot more independent than we are. They were less interdependent than we are.

1984-2005 - Culture wars (Unraveling Era) -
1) Unraveling of Societal direction after World War II - No direction at all
2) Maximum acceptance of individual rights
3) Angry moral arguments based on individual groups
4) Increasingly paralyzed government, public trust failing
5) Public mood changes after 9/11 and Katrina

2005 - ??? - Clash of civilization -
1) Totally paralyzed government
2) Real Estate and Credit bubbles
3) Public increasingly anxious over finances and world affairs
4) The rest is to be determined

Counting on the Hero Generation
1) Worried about trivialities like texting. They don't have much to say. They want money based on old assumptions and expect it to be handed to them.
2) We have to protect them as much as we can even if we have to give up our own perceptions and biases. We need to determine (be participants in) history and effect change. If we are passive, then we will end up being victims of history.
3) It can be very costly to play the "Hero."

Too great a sacrifice for our children - Repeating the history of the WWII generation
1) They will do great things (like the WWII generation was forced to do).
2) They will give their children peace and a higher standard of living (through sacrifice).
3) They could end up in war and pay for it with their lives.
4) Should we not be willing to make the sacrifice and not force it upon them? Drop the hotpoint issues, ideologies, isms, and misconceptions. Starve the beast (big government) and start asking questions. Be our own best leaders and heroes.

The Hound agrees with what Warren states above. We are setting the current younger generation up for failure. They are going to be forced to pick up the pieces of bad policies that they did not conceive.

Look at all of the third rails that politicians have chosen not to deal with, because they have chosen their career paths over leadership. I don't think the people of today can fathom the mindset of our forefathers, who conceived an idea of public servitude over aristocracy. What do we have today, other than an elected aristocracy, who in many cases feel like they do not have to represent the will of the public.

Look at the healthcare system. Everyone other than insurance companies, lawyers, and pharmaceutical companies are looking to lose on this deal, as it stands. Yet, the older generations only seem to be looking at the effects on medicare. What about the effects on 20 and 30-somethings, who don't go to the doctor much, but are expected to foot the bill for older generations. Is that fair?

Look at Social Security, the world's grandest Ponzi Scheme. Who amongst us feels that future generations are going to receive benefits commensurate with what they are expected to put into the system. There seems to be a pattern here. We have built our social and economic foundation around the model of a used car lot. Go ahead and take it home today and we'll worry about the details tomorrow.

The Current Economic Realities we as a country face are the greatest since its inception. It is ridiculous that no one cares about the ramifications of what has been done. When you start talking about the numbers people get this blank stare and then they intellectually shut down. To me that is where I start questioning my thoughts on an issue. If I don't understand the issue, then I start digging into it until I can resolve it somehow, otherwise I am unsettled. People you must wake up. You have been sold a bill of goods.

The debt that this country faces is not fair to future generations, who will not reap the benefits. This has become a matter of national security. We owe these foreign nations all of this money and one day they are going to come to collect. The future generations will have to be brave to maneuver through this elaborate mess left behind by decades of mismanagement and gluttony. They will be forced to make courageous decisions in foreign relations, while not having a position of strength to fall back on.

So it is time that we start getting our country back on the right track. I think much of what we are going through is what Dr. Elizabeth Kubler-Ross labeled the five stages of grief - denial. anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. I think our country has entered the anger stage and by the end of 2010, we will have met that phase full-on. In the next year and a half it will start sinking in and we will realize that elections aren't a quick-fix and no matter what we do, there will be a tough road ahead and by the Spring of 2011 we will enter into the bargaining phase.

I have been two steps ahead of the public on this. I am in the depression phase when it comes to our economy. I don't think people will wake up until its too late. People do not understand or care about economics and finance. That is what has allowed them to be fleeced. Look at all of the athletes who have been fleeced. It is the exact same thing.

If you do care, please spread the word, please speak up. All we can do is try to affect one person or a couple people at a time. If you want to take the first step towards what Warren Pollock is addressing, then it is time to step forward and speak up about what is happening with our economy and it is important that you lead by example in taking care of your own personal finances. Get out of Debt. We can't change things over night, but we have to start somewhere.

Merry Christmas 2009

Let me tell you about how I am blessed. We had our annual extended family get together for Christmas Eve. My sister Angie made potato soup and spinach dip. I made Sub Sandwiches with Roast Beef, Salami, Turkey, Pepperoni. Provolone, Parmesan, Olive Oil, Vinegar, Italian Spices, on Toasted Cobblestone sub rolls. Then others brought stuffed cheesy mini potatoes, stuffed mushrooms, I made fresh salsa with my tomatoes from summer, we had nacho cheese dip, a Rotel & sausage cheese dip, banana bread, pound cake, and a stuffed raspberry pastry.

Tomorrow, I will be roasting a Standing Rib Roast, baking cheese souffle mashed potatoes, sauteing asparagus, my mother is bring the shrimp cocktail, fresh salad, homemade bleu cheese dressing, and my sister is bringing something else and we are having cheesecake for dessert.

You know, I might not have much, but at least I get to eat some of the best food in the world. My family doesn't care about the eating part, we love good food... Perfect Food... and that goes for both sides of the family. That is truly something I get to be thankful for. That I have gotten to savor excellent food for the greatest majority of my life. In that manner, I can truly say that I am blessed. And anyone who knows and has been touched by my family will admit to that.

That is one thing that I can truly be thankful that God has provided me in this life -- Great Food. And it is always nice to have family and friends at my house on Christmas Eve. It would be nice if every day could have a touch of Christmas.

Have a Merry Christmas and we'll see you soon,
James Thomas Shell