May 2, 2011 - Hal Row's First Talk - Mayor & Hickory Hound - Microlending

Microlending has become a focus of many people living in our area since 2008. It is an issue that Harry Hipps ran on during his campaign for Hickory City Council in 2009. It is his baby in relation to the Hickory area. Microlending was first established in Third World Emerging nations, such as India, as a way to facilitate entrepreneurship amongst the poor. Harry first addressed this issue, because we have seen the lack of a credit function in this community and in many ways this relates to the grass roots business development we have seen in these emerging nations.

This issue was also was carried forward by the initial Small Business Task Force and research was executed to establish its legitimacy as a viable economic/financial function in relation to small business start ups. When this issue was brought forward at the City Council retreat of December 2009, our City Manager Mick Berry stated that it was illegal and would not let the presenter even address the issue to the City Council. Our City Council and Mayor's subservience to City Manager Berry stifled the ability to even broach the topic and this was done without question (not a peep). First of all, I have no clue where the City Manager is getting his information, but Microlending functions have been established in Charlotte, NC and San Francisco, CA and various other communities in this nation, which proves that the premise of his information is 100% false.

The most egregious issue is that the Microfinancing wasn't even allowed to be addressed to the Council and therefore no dialogue was allowed to take place related to this Microlending function. That is where I have a BIG problem with Hickory's governance. Most of the time they will listen, in this case they didn't even go that far, but 99% of the time that is all they are going to do. They have made up their minds about processes before they have even been initially discussed. Once again No Communicado - No Comprende!!! That is not open mindedness and that is not leadership. What human is going to truly support that kind of leadership? Other than gullible sheeple.

You have seen me espouse this issue many times before related to the duplicity on the issues that face the community. The Mayor in this presentation talks about needing to know a little more. He had the opportunity in December 2009 to hear a lot more about MicroLending/Microcapital/Microfinancing, but he chose to allow the City Manager to take charge and not allow the issue to be addressed. How sad that a couple of years have wasted away. This issue, by the way, had been discussed a lot by the Task Force that Mayor Wright personally created earlier that year.

I have been told personally that a Microlending function would be very helpful to Innovators who have had contact with the Manufacturing Solutions Center. Dan St. Louis, the head of the center, said that sometimes these people might only need a few hundred or a few thousand dollars. These people are usually working full time jobs and have families. In this economy, their personal budgets are stretched and they don't have money laying around to help with their side venture, so it is put on hold. So our economy is put on hold by the shortsightedness of a leadership looking to protect some theoretical interest that may not even exist.

What do I mean? Well, I have three friends that are in the Multimedia business. Alan Jackson does marketing research at The Jackson Group, Houston Harris does website development at Pixelspace, and Pat Appleson has his own multimedia studio called Pat Appleson Studios. In some areas, all of their businesses overlap and they can all do one another's core business model tasks. They don't cry about competition, because they know that their businesses can feed off of one another. I have never heard one of these guys crying about competition and worrying about someone eating their lunch. What they talk about is the need to get this local Hickory economy rolling again. What they are talking about is the slow velocity of business in our local community. What they are talking about is the lack of turnover of business activity.

In my opinion, the Mayor is only looking at ways to split up the existing pie and make sure that the CLUB is protected. That is what runs Hickory is a Club and you need to fit into that Club and its mentality to move forward in this community. They are always saying that we need to bring our ideas to them and they are looking for the "Right" investment. Well, with the stodgy, risk averse mentality of a lot of the Old School boys that I have had the privilege to know, they are going to constantly harp on why something won't work and if its a good idea they might find a way to steal it from you. That is the dilemma we face in this community.

The Banks in this community have pulled back on their lending and that is understandable. We have seen one local bank that lost their A-double-you know whats playing the Credit derivatives game on Wall Street and they are merging with a bank that settled a huge fine for participating in a Ponzi Scheme. I can assure you, that bank isn't going to be making any bold lending moves. They will be lucky to survive. I haven't seen these so called investors that the Mayor speaks of stepping up to the plate.

That is the reason why we need alternative sources of capital, and microlending is a good start. All anyone wants is the City to be supportive of this process. No one is looking for a handout. No local government official can give you a valid reason not to try this. We have got to do something. We have got to try some things. The Mayor was throwing around a $20 million figure. Well, if you've got $20 million, then I'll call your bluff and I won't even raise the stakes. Put $1 million into a Microlending trust. Draw up contracts to get the money back and eventually you can decide after ten years whether you want to leave that money in there for the public good or take it out and use it for something else for the public good. But, make no mistake, that is not the government's money. Any money the City of Hickory has is not the government's money. That is the people's money and it is a lot more valid to use it for this purpose than to put up another awning or facade Downtown. These little renovations will give some person a job for a day or two; this Microlending function can change the economic environment around here and create jobs that will last a lifetime.

Economic Stories of Relevance in Today's World -- May 1, 2011

The financial tipping point of peak debt – Total credit market debt owed increased from $28 trillion in 2001 to over $52 trillion in 2011. Household debt contracting while Fed juices up the banking sector with more debt. - My Budget 360 - Investing Ideas for Preserving Wealth - April 25, 2011 - At the dark heart of our financial dilemma is debt. Too much debt was used to bolster households during the real estate bubble and now too much debt is being used by the government to bail out the financial sector. Is there a tipping point in the amount of debt the American economy can shoulder? I believe there is and looking at the data carefully we begin to see unusual patterns not seen in a generation. The mosaic of tools used for this financial crisis would have worked if the problems we faced were merely issues of confidence. Of course the problems were very real and dealt with more than just perception and instead of confronting the reality of an over leveraged debt addicted machine we have only stepped on the accelerator. Yet this time instead of credit flowing to households for added game rooms or a trip to Hawaii credit is being extended to Wall Street courtesy of the Federal Reserve. Total credit market debt owed jumped from $28 trillion in 2001 to over $52 trillion today. During this time GDP went from $10 trillion to $14 trillion. You do the math where the growth is occurring.

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Home on the bear market range – the United States will face a 10 to 15 year real estate bear market. Hard to believe but we are already 5 years into this economic trend. The failure of Quantitative Easing in Japan. - My Budget 360 - Investing Ideas for Preserving Wealth - April 28, 2011 - - Can Americans cope with a 10 to 15 year bear market in real estate? On this front I have good news, and bad news. The bad news is that we are likely to face at least a 10 year bear market in real estate thanks to a lost decade in household income and the continued erosion of the middle class. Home prices can only reflect the underlying income of households paying the mortgage. Clearly with record foreclosures many cannot accomplish this financial Herculean task. The good news is we are already 5 years into this correction (so either we are half way or one third closer to a bottom). For the United States this is a new experience because we have never seen an annual drop in home prices on a nationwide basis outside of the current crisis. People point to the Federal Reserve as the knight in bailout armor for housing but look how far that has gotten us in the four years since the crisis started. It is safe to say that home prices will face a 10 to 15 year bear market so let us examine the details carefully.

2008 crash deja vu: We’ll relive it, and soon - Commentary: New bubble is hotter, bigger than the last one - Marketwatch - Paul B. Farrell - April 26, 2011 - Yes, another crash is coming, unavoidable, just like 2008. Not because our totally dysfunctional government is collapsing into anarchy, thanks to the 261,000 Super-Rich Lobbyists. Not just because our monetary system is run by the Bernanke Printing Press Company. And not just because a soulless conspiracy of Wall Street CEOs cares nothing for democracy and the public interest, only for their stockholders and their year-end bonuses... Another crash is coming soon because we’re back playing the same speculative games as we did for years prior to the 2008 crash. When we collapse, it will be because America’s leaders never learn the lessons of history. Never.

Losing Faith (In The U.S. Economy) - The Economic Collapse - Are the American people losing faith in the U.S. economy? The statistics that you are about to read might surprise you. Not everyone believes that the U.S. economy is dying (there are still millions out there that will swallow anything that the mainstream media tells them), but the reality is that there is a growing chunk of the population that has completely lost faith in our leaders and in our economic system. A brand new Gallup poll has found that the number of Americans that believe that we are in a "depression" is actually larger than the number of Americans that believe that the economy is "growing". That is absolutely shocking because according to official government figures, the U.S. economy is growing right now and virtually nobody in the mainstream media or the government has used the term "depression" to describe the economic downturn that we went through recently. In fact, according to Gallup a total of 55% of the American people believe that we are either in a recession or a depression right now. This is clear evidence that the American people are losing faith in U.S. government economic statistics and instead they are basing their opinions on what they see in their own communities. Despite the pablum about an "economic recovery" constantly being spewed by Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama, faith in our economic system continues to decline. The truth is that the American people are not stupid. They can see what is happening to the economy.

Backdoor Bailouts: Banks Play Shell Game With Taxpayer Dollars - Truthout - Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) - April 26, 2011 - The Federal Reserve propped up banks with big infusions of cash during the depths of the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Banks that took billions of dollars from the Fed then turned around and loaned money back to the federal government. It was a sweet deal for the bankers. They received interest payments on the government securities that were up to 12 times greater than the Fed's rock bottom rates, according to a Congressional Research Service analysis conducted for Sen. Bernie Sanders... "This report confirms that ultra-low interest loans provided by the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis turned out to be direct corporate welfare to big banks," Sanders said. "Instead of using the Fed loans to reinvest in the economy, some of the largest financial institutions in this country appear to have lent this money back to the federal government at a higher rate of interest by purchasing U.S. government securities."

* In the 1st quarter of 2008, JPMorgan Chase had an average of $1.2 billion in outstanding Fed loans with a 2.1 percent interest rate while it held $2.2 billion in U.S. government securities with an average yield of 4.6 percent.
* In the 4th quarter of 2008, JPMorgan Chase had an average of $10.1 billion in outstanding Fed loans with a 0.6 percent interest rate while it held $10.3 billion in U.S. government securities with an average yield of 1.7 percent.
* In the 1st quarter of 2009, JPMorgan Chase had an average of $29.2 billion in outstanding Fed loans with a 0.3 percent interest rate and held $34.6 billion in U.S. government securities with an average yield of 2.1 percent.
* In the 2nd quarter of 2009, JPMorgan Chase had an average of $7.6 billion in outstanding Fed loans with an interest rate of 0.25 percent interest. Meanwhile, it held $34.6 billion in U.S. government securities with an average yield of 2.3 percent.
* In the 1st quarter of 2008, Citigroup received over $5.2 billion in Fed loans with a 3.3 percent interest rate and held $7.9 billion in U.S. Treasury Securities with an average yield of 4.4 percent.
* In the 4th quarter of 2008, Citigroup received $15.8 billion in Fed loans through the Fed's Primary Dealer Credit Facility with a 1.2 percent interest rate; $11.6 billion in Term Auction Facility loans with a 1.1 percent interest rate; and $4.9 billion in Commercial Paper Funding Facility loans with a 2.7 percent interest rate. It simultaneously held $24 billion in U.S. government securities with an average yield of 3.1 percent.
* In the 1st quarter of 2009, Citigroup received over $12.1 billion in Fed loans with an interest rate of 0.5 percent while holding $14.3 billion in U.S. government securities with an average yield of 3.9 percent.
* In the 2nd quarter of 2009, Citigroup received over $23 billion in Fed loans with an interest rate of 0.5 percent while holding $24.3 billion in U.S. government securities with an average yield of 2.3 percent.
* In the 3rd quarter of 2009, Bank of America had an average of $2.9 billion in outstanding Fed loans with an interest rate of 0.25 percent while purchasing $23.5 billion in Treasury Securities with an average yield of 3.2 percent.

President John F.Kennedy, The Federal Reserve And Executive Order 11110 - Before It's News - April 24, 2011 - On June 4, 1963, a little known attempt was made to strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the government at interest. On that day President John F. Kennedy signed Executive Order No. 11110 that returned to the U.S. government the power to issue currency, without going through the Federal Reserve. Mr. Kennedy’s order gave the Treasury the power “to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury.” This meant that for every ounce of silver in the U.S. Treasury’s vault, the government could introduce new money into circulation. In all, Kennedy brought nearly $4.3 billion in U.S. notes into circulation. The ramifications of this bill are enormous.

With the stroke of a pen, Mr. Kennedy was on his way to putting the Federal Reserve Bank of New York out of business. If enough of these silver certificats were to come into circulation they would have eliminated the demand for Federal Reserve notes. This is because the silver certificates are backed by silver and the Federal Reserve notes are not backed by anything. Executive Order 11110 could have prevented the national debt from reaching its current level, because it would have given the gevernment the ability to repay its debt without going to the Federal Reserve and being charged interest in order to create the new money. Executive Order 11110 gave the U.S. the ability to create its own money backed by silver.

After Mr. Kennedy was assassinated just five months later, no more silver certificates were issued. The Final Call has learned that the Executive Order was never repealed by any U.S. President through an Executive Order and is still valid. Why then has no president utilized it? Virtually all of the nearly $6 trillion in debt has been created since 1963, and if a U.S. president had utilized Executive Order 11110 the debt would be nowhere near the current level. Perhaps the assassination of JFK was a warning to future presidents who would think to eliminate the U.S. debt by eliminating the Federal Reserve’s control over the creation of money. Mr. Kennedy challenged the government of money by challenging the two most successful vehicles that have ever been used to drive up debt – war and the creation of money by a privately-owned central bank. His efforts to have all troops out of Vietnam by 1965 and Executive Order 11110 would have severely cut into the profits and control of the New York banking establishment. As America’s debt reaches unbearable levels and a conflict emerges in Bosnia that will further increase America’s debt, one is force to ask, will President Clinton have the courage to consider utilizing Executive Order 11110 and, ifso, is he willing to pay the ultimate price for doing so?

Gerald Celente on Jeff Rense - April 29, 2011
Gerald Celente Empire America is unraveling in front of us , ...The Business of America is War and The Business of China is Business , look at the difference look at the balance sheet , what we are seeing now it is not only the military industrial complex , it is the military intelligence complex , it's the same game , The CIA has now its own fleet of aircraft called drones and they have their mercenaries around the world doing their thing ?!?!

I tell people there are three things you should not do says Gerald Celente of The Trends Research Institute : Sign a petition , Send a letter to your congressman or call your senator , grow up !!!!

Good and Bad -- We're in this thing together!!!

I wrote this article 26 months ago on February 23, 2009. It is even more relevant today because of the time factor. I know that my message has reached some and others are still in denial or LaLa Land or whatever. Time for preparation is drawing to a close. At the time, Gold was selling right at $1,000 an ounce and silver was $14.50. Tonight Gold is selling at $1,532.30 and Silver is selling at $48.49. 26 months ago the Gold to Silver ratio was right at 69x, today it sits at 31.6x. What other investment has offered the sort of returns precious metals have over the last 2 years? There are some commodities that have risen dramatically, but not 234% like Silver.

I am not giving you investment advice. I am giving you preparatory advice related to self-preservation. Fools will think that the growth of commodities means that there is a recovery under way, because they just look at aggregate, end justifies the means, numbers. Common sense will show you that the replacement costs of goods is not returning a profit. This means that there is not a recovery. It does mean that their is inflation.

People just don't understand the role of money in an economy. Money is a store of value that creates liquidity (a flow) in the exchange of goods and services. Money, in and of itself, holds no value. It is the economy (the marketplace) that it represents that creates money's value. Our economy is deplorable, because we have not taken care of it. We allowed Bankers and Politicians to take care of it and they have taken care of the economy to the extent that it suits their own purpose. This holds true at every level of our governance. The dollar is supposed to be a store of value for the public trust of the United States of America.

When our nation was strong and our people were strong, then our economy was strong and thus the Dollar represented the prestigious stature of this nation. We built respect based upon our values that were represented by the Revolutionary War, World War I, and World War II. That is what earned us the right to have our nation's store of value become the World's Reserve Currency, because people trusted the United States to be a nation of its word to go along with its strength, power, perseverance, and most of all its benevolence; but all of that has changed now.

We have been stripped of our stature by the Confidence Men who sold us the bill of goods that we could have everything we wanted and not work for it. We can have trinkets up front and never pay for them or pay for them on our own time. We can expect to retire at a decent age and not worry about how to save for it. Someone else can pay for our healthcare and other social needs. They promised that they were going to take care of everything and we didn't need to worry about the details or pay attention; Just Trust Them. And in the end who is to blame for the economic debacle laid before our feet? It isn't the Confidence Men that sold us lies that we never should have believed. They just sold us what we wanted to buy. We were the fools who bought it all and stood by and watched our birthright and legacy be pillaged and plundered in short order. How shameful to have wasted what took generations of sacrifice and perseverance to build. The Bills are coming due and the Confidence Men won't be the people paying them. It will be you and I.

We can right this wrong eventually, but not if we never recognize and rectify the wrong. Oh yes, there will be pain, but it will only be worse the longer that we fail to act. Most people still don't even recognize the financial trouble and instability that we are in. Have you bought gas or been to the grocery store. What do you think is going on?

I wish that I didn't know what was going on, because it is depressing. But, I believe there is a reason why I am here and I am doing this. I hope that I am reaching a few people who can help make a difference and soon we can turn the tide. I need help. I need your help. You can help. Read below to see what I wrote over two years ago and see if it doesn't make sense and if it does, then please speak up and spread the word, because we are in this together, whether you like it or not. And may God's Peace be with you!!!

8 Suggestions for the Road Ahead -- Self Preservation

I do not propose to be some sort of expert on survival, but we can all see that these are not normal times and it is time to prepare for the worst of times and pray that we never reach that destination. I have compiled some information about personal finance and personal responsibility. You can move as close to these targets as possible or you may ignore the advice. I only give you this advice, because my soul moves me to. In the end you are responsible for your own countenance.

1) Get out of short term debt - You should be in no more short term debt (credit cards) than what you can pay off immediately. I believe that 5% of your take home pay would be about the Maximum amount of debt you should be carrying in this recession. If you get laid off, then you can easily pay that off.

As inflation rises, the adjustable interest rates on short term debt will also rise. You could very well see 20%+ interest rates on credit cards (if not way higher than that). How would you ever pay these debts off, if that were to happen?

2) Keep cash on hand and tuck it away somewhere that no one can find it. I am not saying that banks will go bust like they were in the 1930s, but on March 5, 1933 Franklin Roosevelt (the day after being sworn into office) called a 4-day bank holiday. The banks were closed and people could not withdraw cash from their accounts. Some people say that this same scenario nearly played out last September. What would you do if the bank was closed for a week or two? Remember the gas shortage last September and how everyone panicked?

3) Put some of your money in precious metals. Most of us can't afford $1,000 an ounce gold, but we can afford $14.50 an ounce Silver or even cheaper Copper. These metals will hold there value during inflationary times. In 1980, during the last inflationary period in the U.S., the price of gold spiked to $850 an ounce in 1980 (an equivalent of $2,178.05 in today's dollars). The same year Silver spiked to $48.70 (an equivalent of $124.79 in today's dollars). U.S. Inflation Calculator Link

I am not saying that we will see those levels in the coming year, but unless our government gets its spending under control, I believe we will burst through those levels by the end of Obama's first term. At the end of the year 2000, the Dow Jones Industrial average was trading at 39.5 times the price of Gold and 2,345 times the price of silver. Today the DJIA is 7.17 times the price of Gold and 494 times the price of Silver. This has all been brought about by the tanking of the U.S. Dollar. Until our government starts reigning in the ridiculous spending and comes back towards fiscal sanity, it is time to get out of our currency and into something real.

4) Be Thrifty and quit wasting your money - Don't throw things away unless they have no value. Eat at home, use coupons, share meals with your friends and neighbors, look for cheap entertainment, turn that heat down, use the fan (instead of the AC), and consolidate you trips when driving. This is not the time to throw money around. It is time to spend wisely.

A good investment would be to buy dry and canned goods in bulk. Remember the price increases last year during the fuel run up? Buy these goods and store them for the rainy day. If that day never comes, then you can use them; but if a truly inflationary period does hit, then you will have bought yourself some valuable time.

5) Grow a garden. The only thing that this will cost is the money for a few tools, the cost of some seeds, and some labor. You will be handsomely rewarded. You'll have something to eat to get through the summer months and you can can, freeze, or dry this stuff to get through the winter. This will help you get outdoors and get some exercise. You can be basic or elaborate. That is up to you. The deal is that this will save you money, when your budget gets tight, and that is money that may be needed elsewhere. You can also barter these vegetables for other food or maybe to get something else. Growing a garden creates value.

6) Secure your house. Crime is naturally going to increase. You need to get deadbolt locks for the doors and hide your valuables in safe, secure places. Don't flaunt what you have. You need to be humble and thrifty. Be aware.

7) Get to know your neighbors and look out for one another's well-being. This goes hand-in-hand with number 6 and maybe even number 5. One thing that we have lost in the age of gluttony is that sense of community. Neighborhood Watch will be very important if times get tougher and we will need to look out for the elderly, who will become very vulnerable as their fixed incomes are attacked by inflationary dollars.

8) Pay attention to what the Government is doing - It is time that people figure out that the condition our economy is in today is a direct reflection on the economic choices that have been made by our leaders and the bureaucracy over the last 40 years. No one expects perfection, but we also should not expect utter incompetence and/or corruption either. It is time for accountability.

Economic Recovery? Here's a Second Opinion

The Following is a summarization of the U.S. Economy from Bob Chapman's newsletter The International Forecaster from April 23, 2011. You can subscribe to the International Forecaster at www.intforecaster.com. The newsletter is always interesting and usually runs about 40 pages. It is released on Wednesdays and Saturdays every week. The reason why I am releasing this portion of the letter is because it conveys much of the message I have been exposing to this audience over the last 2 1/2 years plus. In my opinion this analysis is dead on and Mr. Chapman has a deeper knowledge and experience than I have and he shows exactly what I have felt and tried to convey to you. I hope you will take time out to read this important message:

Economic recovery does not seem to be taking effect in spite of more massive expenditures by Congress and the Fed. The IMF says financial stability has improved, but then again their vision is almost always clouded. US tax revenues are not increasing in a meaningful way, manufacturing struggles to expand and Wall Street flourishes in a cascade of mega salaries and bonuses. In another six months the US will be three years into what the government, the media and Wall Street call a deep recession. We call it an inflationary depression, which has existed for 26 months. After eight years of increasing money and credit, and the creation of a real estate bubble, the Fed has been fighting off asset destruction with ever more money and credit accompanied by debt deflation. Part of the Fed’s policy has been zero interest rates, which has helped Wall Street and banking and to a limited extent real estate, but has destroyed the purchasing power of retirees and has driven funds into speculation, which in many cases has ended in ever more losses and less buying power.

The policy left conservative investors no place to turn to other than to join Wall Street and bankers in speculation, something they were not prepared for nor could they compete with. Borrowers have had a field day with virtually free money for which the result has been higher inflation and really major unemployment. You might call this the true Keynesian corporatist fascist model. This has left us with ongoing malinvestment, ridiculous illusions, which have led to the de-capitalizing of the US economy. In that process these interest free loans have given the big hitters the opportunity to enhance their fortunes at the expense of everyone else.

These rates and QE2 at least for the moment have been so powerful that deflation is nowhere in sight, except perhaps in job creation. In fact net inflation has moved up to 9-1/2% and we believe this year it will attain 14%, as government eventually admits to 5-1/2%, as we saw three years ago. If you think we are wrong look at producer prices that are up almost 11% over the past six months. Government and mainline economists are not paying attention. Either the higher costs are passed on or the profits will disappear. Just like in years past, over and over again, the excessive expansionism of monetary and fiscal policy will produce excessive inflation, more inflation than the so-called experts are anticipating.

The bailout of financial institutions by American taxpayers, both in the US, UK and Europe, won’t be allowed to happen again. In the next go-around they will go bankrupt. Those in the US and other stock markets with the exception of gold and silver shares, those in bonds, derivatives and hedge funds, will be wiped out as well. Few will be spared.

Inflation - A year from this June inflation should be near 20% and that is where panic will set in. The 10-year T-note should be yielding 5-1/4% to 5-1/2% and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage should be 6-1/2% to 6-3/4%. After that interest rates and inflation will more than double, as they did in the late 1970s.

An example that is easily understood is that due to foreclosure and lack of job creation, rents should increase 10% over the next 1-1/2 years. That is known as Homeowner’s Equivalent Rent, which is 23% of total inflation. We believe that is a conservative figure. We won’t deal with core inflation, because it is just a method of obscuring real inflation. That 10% increase would add 4% to net inflation, which is currently about 9-1/2%, not 1.9%, as your faithless government would have you believe.That would put real inflation at 5-1/2%, not to mention increased prices for fuel and food.

That is why our estimates are 14% to 25% over that time frame. Don’t forget interest rates will be rising as well. This only includes QE and stimulus 1 & 2. If QE3, by that or some other euphemism occurs, which we believe has too, then 50% inflation and hyperinflation is attainable. Readers have to remember that even if oil prices stopped increasing at $120.00, and food prices stayed at 10% higher levels, it would still rob consumers of $300 billion in purchasing power. That would drop consumers as a part of GDP from 71% to 69% easily. That means GDP growth even with the Fed adding $2.5 trillion to the economy, would at best stay even and may reflect as low as a minus 6%.

You have to get the feel of the dynamics of this. Raging inflation, plus perhaps hyperinflation, a falling economy and 30% to 40% unemployment, U6 was 37.6% at the top of the great depression and the birth/death ratio didn’t exist at that time. Presently wages are stagnant, and they have been so for three years. Wages will finally start to rise so you can add rising wages to the inflationary explosion. As this transpires we have the Middle East and North Africa, which are now a frightening further calamity waiting to happen. Any further violence there could take oil to $150.00 or higher. Will there be war with Iran? Perhaps and if that develops oil could  escalate to $200 to $300 a barrel. Such developments would knock the foundation out from under the entire world, except for those fortunately producing oil.

Another factor is the plight of municipalities and states in the US. We have seen a small reduction in employment in these sectors, but the biggest layoffs are yet to come, as well as more than 100 municipal bankruptcies. We will also see debt default by states in relation to their bonds and other debts. Some states, such as Illinois, New York and California could cease functioning. This is not a pretty picture....

The Banks & The Government - Then there are the banks, all of which are close to insolvency already, which are facing massive bond losses, which will put them out of business. These are the loans they made that they should have never made, from funds created out of thin air. Iceland has rejected paying off British and Dutch depositors, who had funds in Icelandic banks, which went bankrupt. The depositors do not have a leg to stand on and the citizens of Iceland are correct in their refusal. It was the Icelandic bankers who screwed the depositors....

We normally do not editorialize regarding silver and gold. As you know we have recommended being long gold and silver shares, coins and bullion since June of 2000. Now that story is getting even better. Not only has gold and silver been a safe haven asset all those years, but is finally again becoming a shelter from inflation. The US, UK and Europe are in serious financial and economic trouble. Over the past 11 years, nine major country’s currencies on average have fallen more than 20% each year versus gold and silver. That is quite an extraordinary return and from our mail our subscribers are quite happy they followed our advice. Our run, including our market shorts, has simply been unbelievable.

Silver prices are on a tear and as we write they have risen to $46.30. In spite of these price levels the mining industry is not increasing production in any meaningful way. About 70% of production comes as a by-product of other types of mining, such as copper. There are no new sizeable projects in the works, and thus it is expected that production could fall 5% annually for the next ten years. The easy finds have already been exploited and new large projects are harder to find. In fact, current mines have only been able to increase production by a paltry 2.5% or so. In 2009 Argentina was the only outstanding exception and that could be a one off occurrence.

As we write gold has broken out to $1,509.30 even as the “Plunge Protection Team” fights viciously to suppress both gold and silver prices. Despite the mantra on Wall Street and in government there is 9-1/2% inflation affecting the US economy and the professionals and the public are finally catching on. In spite of the greatest bull market in gold and silver history, they still do not get it. Less than 1% of Americans own gold and silver related assets.

The QE1 and 2 and stimulus 1 and 2 have done their damage. The inflationary results are in the pipeline. QE and stimulus being reflected this year and the results of QE2 and stimulus 2 next year. We believe we’ll see the results of QE3 the following year, 2013, but it will be called something else. A falling dollar and few buyers of US debt has again set the stage for the Fed taking down 80% or more of Treasury and Agency debt. If they do not do that the whole system will collapse. These programs are like booster rockets aiding an underlying positive fundamental condition for gold and silver. The flip side is the debasement and denigration of the US dollar. As an aside even though the European Central Bank has just raised interest rates they and the UK will continue their own versions of QE, because if they don’t their economies will collapse. That will put even more inflation into the world financial system.

As the possibility of QE3, or its equivalent, lurks in the wings the very solvency of America hangs in the balance. Those who have studied financial and economic history know that the course that is being followed is unworkable, and that certainly includes the staff at the Fed and the Treasury Department. In fact, Mr. Bernanke pointed out that in his and Mr. Baskins’ writings in 1988 after the market collapses of 1987.

At the heart of America’s problems are the insolvency of many financial institutions and the failure of either the Fed or the Treasury to have them liquidated. What the banks have in mind is the liquidation of bad debt held in suspension over the next 50 years. Supposedly as conditions and profits increase part of those profits will be used to lower debt. The problem is that these corporations are bankrupt. There access in the creation of inside information allows them to produce illegal outsized profits, such as 90 days of propriety trading without a loss. We were traders for 25 years and know under normal legal circumstances that that is impossible.

Then, of course, there are the giant profits, really theft from other investors, that are used in part to offset previous losses and provide outsized salaries and bonuses to the crooks that run these banks and brokerage firms. These results are aided by the creation of money and credit and zero interest rates. The ability to borrow money created out of thin air at almost no cost. As a result the Fed now has a balance sheet of some $3 trillion loaded with Treasuries, Agencies, toxic waste and if they decide to create more money and credit to keep the government and the economy functioning for another year that figure will become $5.5 to $6 trillion. That is some monetization. There is unfortunately no other way for the Fed to do it, when at best they can only expect 20% to 30% of buyers for Treasuries, as the dollar falls in value. The situation is dire as the US dollar has just fallen 5% versus the Mexican peso, as the Mexican economy grows 4.5% a year, inflation is 3.7% and unemployment is 5%, and they haven’t used stimulus.

What are we missing here? Nothing except the Fed and Treasury, as well as Congress and the President are out of their minds as were their predecessors. How bad is it when the largest bond fund in the world, PIMCO, not only sells all its US Treasuries and Agencies, because they see no value and then they proceed to short them? It’s certainly a sad day for the solvency of America. Who can blame PIMCO when government is projecting $1.6 trillion deficits as far as the eye can see. In addition, all the funds paid by Americans for Social Security and Medicare have been squandered by government. Now there is no way to pay the promised benefits. That is $100 trillion that has been stolen, or should we say misappropriated. It is so bad that the US government credit rating may soon be lowered. It was just 1-1/2 years ago we picked August 2011 as the possible time for a downgrading of that AAA credit rating.

The number of states in serious financial trouble has now risen to 40 and unfortunately that number is still climbing.

We wonder what the American public is going to think when the Fed bails JP Morgan Chase and HSBC out of their naked silver short for $100 billion or more? This is called corporate welfare in a corporatist fascist society. They gamble and lose and you get to pay the bill. They get to keep the profits as our retirees starve as their SS is frozen or reduced. Then when they get ill a government panel tells them that their treatment will be too expensive, so they’ll have to die on their own. This is what bankers and Wall Street and their organizations have planned for the elderly. They are considered useless eaters now that their contributions to society have ended. That is what you have allowed America to become – a country run by terrorist, criminal syndicate.

The dollar no longer has stability because few believe that the government possesses more than 8,000 tons of gold. It is called a collapsing fiat currency. The result of profligate fiscal  management and monetary madness. The result is in the process of becoming raging inflation that will become hyperinflation. As we write gold and silver have established new highs at $1,505.70 and silver at $46.69 respectively with no top in sight. This is a reflection of dollar and all currency debasement. Do not forget for the past 11 years, nine major currencies on average have fallen more than 20% annually versus gold and silver. As you can see this is not only a dollar policy, but also a policy being pursued by many nations called corporate, fascist, Keynesianism. The result is rising inflation worldwide that is a reflection of rising commodity prices, which are a result of a flight to quality. The same manifestation has been visited on gold and silver as well. Yes, inflation makes gold and silver rise, and that is important, but the real propelling force is the flight to the only real money in the world and those are gold and silver.

Economic Stories of Relevance in Today's World -- April 24, 2011

Poll shows Americans oppose entitlement cuts to deal with debt problem - The Washington Post - By Jon Cohen and Dan Balz, Wednesday, April 20, 2011 - The survey finds that Americans prefer to keep Medicare just the way it is. Most also oppose cuts in Medicaid and the defense budget. More than half say they are against small, across-the-board tax increases combined with modest reductions in Medicare and Social Security benefits. Only President Obama’s call to raise tax rates on the wealthiest Americans enjoys solid support.

The Magnetar Trade: How One Hedge Fund Helped Keep the Bubble Going - ProPublica - Jesse Eisinger and Jake Bernstein - April 9, 2010 - In late 2005, the booming U.S. housing market seemed to be slowing. The Federal Reserve had begun raising interest rates. Subprime mortgage company shares were falling. Investors began to balk at buying complex mortgage securities. The housing bubble, which had propelled a historic growth in home prices, seemed poised to deflate. And if it had, the great financial crisis of 2008, which produced the Great Recession of 2008-09, might have come sooner and been less severe.

And This is How the Republic Will End… - TheNoisyRoom.Net - Terresa Monroe - Apr 20th, 2011- Hamilton - We see that 7 out of the 10 tax avoiders were big contributors to Obama: 1 is leaving the U.S. (the global elites are undoubtedly happy the de-industrialization of America is moving right along), 1 sells its assets (more de-industrialization) and 1 has a Board Director that receives a co-chair appointment by Obama. Looks pretty cozy, but Obama’s comrades are the ones who are calling these companies out.

BRICS poised to pick up the pieces from the rubble of America’s collapsed empire - Strategic Culture Foundation - Wayne Madsen -  4/18/2011 - The American empire is faltering from within and abroad. In an attempt to preserve its empire, the United States has adopted an aggressive military posture, starting a war in Libya and continuing its military occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq. Washington’s military planners are stepping up drone attacks in Pakistan and using NATO forces to extend America’s hegemony over resource-rich Africa, not only in Libya but also in Cote d’Ivoire. U.S. Special Operations forces are engaged in military adventures from Colombia and Honduras to Yemen and the Philippines... With the collapse of America’s imperial global empire, there will be a new “multi-polar” world order.The term “multi-polar” and “economic independence” was on the lips of every BRICS leader and their advisers in Sanya. And Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Wu Hailong said in Sanya that many other countries have signaled an interest in joining BRICS. Nations around the world want to get as far away from the sinking United States lest they get pulled down by the drowning empire.

Pick your poison: A look at Dem, Repub budget plans - Both offer more borrowing, skyrocketing debt, not cuts - WorldnetDaily - Posted: April 23, 2011 - While the White House claims its budget plan will cut $4.2 trillion in spending and the Republicans claim a $5.8 trillion reduction, neither proposal cuts anything from the national debt – in fact, both plans increase it from $14.3 trillion to at least $23 trillion by 2021, some 10 years from now.

A Morally Untenable Corporate System - Truthout - Jim Hightower - April 20, 2011 - Now, after the collapse, what has changed? Nothing. One survey of nine of the big banks we taxpayers bailed out shows that two-thirds of their failed board members are still there, and once again, they are shoveling inexplicably huge bonuses at the same old CEOs, who have returned to playing the same old casino games that caused the crash.... A system that enriches executive elites while crushing the middle class is worse than an embarrassment -- it's morally untenable.

An "Oh Please!" Moment: Is S&P Running Interference for the Right to Help Crush Social Security and Medicare? - Truthout - Dave Lindorff , This Can't Be Happening - April 20, 2011 - The problem will come when the dollar starts to seriously erode against other currencies because too much of the currency has been put into circulation. When that happens, there may be a shift away from the dollar as the world’s “reserve currency.” Looking further, one could then imagine the US being unable to issue debt to foreign investors, because they would no longer want to be left holding dollars, and the US would have to either drastically reduce its debt, or borrow in foreign-denominated debt--say Yen or Euros or Renminbi.

That future may come, but what S&P is talking about--a risk of default on current US debt--is simply absurd, and does raise questions about behind-the-scenes pressure from some nefarious actors on the right anxious to do away with Medicare and Social Security before today’s Baby Boomer population becomes the biggest retirement and Medicare-entitled voting bloc--both numerically and proportionally --in the nation’s history.

Oil lifted by weak dollar in volatile trade - Reuters - Robert Gibbons - April 21, 2011 - Investors bought oil as a hedge against a tumbling dollar as the dollar index .DXY hit its lowest since 2008 against a basket of currencies and had its all-time low in sight... Disappointing reports on factory activity and U.S. initial jobless claims cast doubt on the pace of U.S. economic recovery and energy demand growth, limiting oil's gains.