When I did these numbers originally I compared workforce versus population. I should have compared Employed versus Population.
I have decided to do some more statistical analyzes of our area. These numbers do have some extrapolations, since our last guesstimates on population were presented for January 1, 2007. But, by rounding the numbers I feel that it is safe to say that we are very close to the numbers represented in this analysis.
The last unemployment data presented by the St Louis Federal Reserve was for November 1, 2008. New data should be coming out in the next couple days. The last data was released on January 7, 2009. Looking at the numbers it is safe to say that Catawba County has a population right in the area of 160,000 as of November 1, 2008. This is under the assumption that we are growing at a rounded off rate of 2,400 people per year -- as we have grown over the last several years.
If these numbers are holding true, then that would mean that we have some serious issues when looking at the numbers of total citizens versus those that are actually employed. As of 11/1/2008, Catawba County has 75,307 people in its workforce, the unemployment rate was 9.7%, which means that 7,305 people are out of work. With an estimated population in the county right at 160,000 people, we see that only 47.06% (actually 42.5%) of Catawba County's citizens were employed at the beginning of November.
To give those numbers some comparison and perspective, you need to look at the data from the spreadsheet linked below. In January 1990 there were 68,339 people employed in this county. As of November 1, 2008 there were 68,002 people employed in the county, The population in the county on 1/1/1990 was 118,945 people compared to 11/1/2008's 160,000 people. So that means that basically, while the population has grown by more than 40,000 people in the last 19 years, we have lost 337 jobs.
On February 1, 2001 Catawba County hit its Zenith as far as Workforce Population is concerned. There were 82,245 people in the workforce at that time, since then we have seen our workforce fall by almost 7,000 people. As of 11/1/2008, there were 75,307 people available in our workforce. Our maximum number of employed people was achieved on 6/1/2000 at 78,540 people, since that time we have shed more than 10,000 jobs to where today we stand today at 68,002 people employed.
The most devastating angle in the new research that I have started shows that less than 50% of Catawba County's populace is now employed. The numbers show that only a tick over 47% (revised to 42.5%)of our total population is currently officially employed. We went below the 50% mark after December 2006 (actually December 2001) and have steadily declined since. Compare this to to July of 1991, when 61.86% (58.58% in June 1990) of our population was officially employed. That means that nearly 16% of our population is not working, as compared to then. We had 38,500 people fewer living in this county then.
What do these numbers show? Well, one interpretation is pretty much self explanatory. We have seen our traditional manufacturing job base devastated without question. But, I also believe we have seen a perfect storm of circumstances that are leading us down a path that honestly could send us into third world status. We must reinvent this community to survive and there are right ways and wrong ways to go about doing so.
Why has our population increased by over 40,000 people, yet there are no jobs to show for it? That shouldn't make sense, but I believe it is partially due to the fact that we have been slowly turning our community into a retirement village. The perfect storm of this county's native population aging, along with an influx of retirees from elsewhere is contributing to a community where more people don't work than do. It is up to you to decide whether this is sustainable or not. I contend that it is not and we must try everything we can to get our demographic model back in kilter.
I love older people. My grandmothers are 94 and 86 respectively. I do everything I can for them. But I also see the inherent costs in aging. Can our county's health care system sustain the aged if they become a predominant demographic element in this community. What will it mean for the standard of living of the younger generations, if we are expected to gear our working careers towards fixed income economics? I really think that these questions deserve to be answered. What do you think?
Catawba County Population Working vs Not Working
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Thursday, February 5, 2009
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9 comments:
So James, what are we to do? Do we want to throw old people out of the county? We can't do that. We have to give our young people a reason to want to live here so that when they complete college they want to come back to Hickory.
Yes, we have to create industries that will interest young upwardly mobile people and we need incentives for them to stay or return to this area.
I don't want to kick seniors out, but we don't need to encourage a disproportionate amount of seniors to move here, because it is unhealthy for the vitality, growth, and future of this community. We have to have balance.
Look at the issues that South Florida is facing because of the current Real Estate Crisis. When your community becomes senior-centric, the community suffers. It costs more for the health care of seniors, guess who picks up the tab. When seniors want to sell their house or enter into a reverse mortgage, the property value falls because of the demand side of the equation. Plus Seniors don't spend the money that younger people do, because they are on fixed incomes. Even wealthy seniors pull back, because they are worried about catastrophic health care issues. We will naturally reduce the standard of living in this area, if we push to bring in more seniors.
I can get into more and more reasons why having a senior-centric economy is a bad idea, but my point is that we have to have demographic balance if we are going to have a robust economy.
I have to agree. I love older people and one of my main goals in life is to become an old, old man. But it does not bode well for the standard of living here.
First, the average household income (last statistics I saw was 2006) showed that we had a two income household making $67000 a year. Catawba County recently stated that by 2025 six out of ten people in Catawba Co. will be over 65. The average Social Security check is $1000 per month so you can see that the income for 60% of us is going to drop by almost 2/3s. In addition, health care is rising more than general inflation and taking our diaposable income and the strength of our Federal gov't and the future of the SS system is questionable. If there is a crisis in Social Security where does that leave us? And what does our economy look like when 60% of us are living on this reduced income?
Add to that, look at how we describe our area. We are close to Charlotte, the mountains, the beaches and other larger cities. This is good when you are talking about a wage earning family taking a short get away trip, but if you are talking about fixed income seniors spending disposable dollars out of town and then coming home to a life of austerity that is not a pretty picture.
The bottom line is that we need a vibrant, diverse area and the part we lack is the economic opportunity for educated, upwardly mobile young professionals. We need more than just doctors and nurses looking out for the elderly. We need some of the movers and shakers.
You've got to do something to stop these people from getting old. Do you think we can get a spaceship to deposit some cocoons in the Hickory Y swimming pool?
How about doing something to create jobs that will attract a younger demographic? Is there something wrong with that concept?
I've been here for nearly fifty years and can tell you that the college bound kids have always left the area.There was never much to hold them here. For years and years, the powers-that-be didn't care for other industries to come compete with the low wage textile/furniture base. When it became clear that we must diversify, we were behind the eight ball, so the crunch that hit in late 2001 was all the more devastating. The population is definitely getting older, but as far as retirees moving in--I'd say they generally have a lot more money than the natives.
Yes, but as we say, they are still on fixed incomes, because they have to worry about possible catastrophic health issues.
They also aren't going to spend a predominant amount of their disposable income here in Hickory. They will vacation outside of the area -- Mountains, Beach, Florida -- and come back here, as Harry Hipps says, to lead a life of "Austerity."
This county is also going to bare the brunt of Senior's Health Care Costs. You do realize that local counties are responsible for a good chunk of that cost. As we move closer to Socialized Medicine, that burden will become heavier and heavier without a needed infusion of new money brought in by viable, robust industries based on younger demographic labor.
Please, for education's sake, tell me what costs local counties have to "bear." Last time I checked, Medicaid and Medicare were federal programs.
http://www.catawbacountync.gov/dss/adultmed.asp
Look at the last page of this document that shows that 27% of our county's budget expenditures go to Health and Social Services. A percentage of this goes to medicare and medicaid. http://www.catawbacountync.gov/depts/budget/08-09/RevExpendSummary.pdf
Here is a bunch of data about Catawba County if you are interested. http://www.city-data.com/zips/28601.html
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