When I did these numbers originally I compared workforce versus population. I should have compared Employed versus Population.
I have decided to do some more statistical analyzes of our area. These numbers do have some extrapolations, since our last guesstimates on population were presented for January 1, 2007. But, by rounding the numbers I feel that it is safe to say that we are very close to the numbers represented in this analysis.
The last unemployment data presented by the St Louis Federal Reserve was for November 1, 2008. New data should be coming out in the next couple days. The last data was released on January 7, 2009. Looking at the numbers it is safe to say that Catawba County has a population right in the area of 160,000 as of November 1, 2008. This is under the assumption that we are growing at a rounded off rate of 2,400 people per year -- as we have grown over the last several years.
If these numbers are holding true, then that would mean that we have some serious issues when looking at the numbers of total citizens versus those that are actually employed. As of 11/1/2008, Catawba County has 75,307 people in its workforce, the unemployment rate was 9.7%, which means that 7,305 people are out of work. With an estimated population in the county right at 160,000 people, we see that only 47.06% (actually 42.5%) of Catawba County's citizens were employed at the beginning of November.
To give those numbers some comparison and perspective, you need to look at the data from the spreadsheet linked below. In January 1990 there were 68,339 people employed in this county. As of November 1, 2008 there were 68,002 people employed in the county, The population in the county on 1/1/1990 was 118,945 people compared to 11/1/2008's 160,000 people. So that means that basically, while the population has grown by more than 40,000 people in the last 19 years, we have lost 337 jobs.
On February 1, 2001 Catawba County hit its Zenith as far as Workforce Population is concerned. There were 82,245 people in the workforce at that time, since then we have seen our workforce fall by almost 7,000 people. As of 11/1/2008, there were 75,307 people available in our workforce. Our maximum number of employed people was achieved on 6/1/2000 at 78,540 people, since that time we have shed more than 10,000 jobs to where today we stand today at 68,002 people employed.
The most devastating angle in the new research that I have started shows that less than 50% of Catawba County's populace is now employed. The numbers show that only a tick over 47% (revised to 42.5%)of our total population is currently officially employed. We went below the 50% mark after December 2006 (actually December 2001) and have steadily declined since. Compare this to to July of 1991, when 61.86% (58.58% in June 1990) of our population was officially employed. That means that nearly 16% of our population is not working, as compared to then. We had 38,500 people fewer living in this county then.
What do these numbers show? Well, one interpretation is pretty much self explanatory. We have seen our traditional manufacturing job base devastated without question. But, I also believe we have seen a perfect storm of circumstances that are leading us down a path that honestly could send us into third world status. We must reinvent this community to survive and there are right ways and wrong ways to go about doing so.
Why has our population increased by over 40,000 people, yet there are no jobs to show for it? That shouldn't make sense, but I believe it is partially due to the fact that we have been slowly turning our community into a retirement village. The perfect storm of this county's native population aging, along with an influx of retirees from elsewhere is contributing to a community where more people don't work than do. It is up to you to decide whether this is sustainable or not. I contend that it is not and we must try everything we can to get our demographic model back in kilter.
I love older people. My grandmothers are 94 and 86 respectively. I do everything I can for them. But I also see the inherent costs in aging. Can our county's health care system sustain the aged if they become a predominant demographic element in this community. What will it mean for the standard of living of the younger generations, if we are expected to gear our working careers towards fixed income economics? I really think that these questions deserve to be answered. What do you think?
Catawba County Population Working vs Not Working
