Showing posts with label Hickory Regional Leadership. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hickory Regional Leadership. Show all posts

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Hickory, NC News & Views | September 28, 2025 | Hickory Hound

 

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 Executive Summary and Key Points

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 🧠Opening Reflection:

A year can pass in the blink of an eye, or it can stretch into a slow march of days that feel unending. For those who lived through Hurricane Helene last September, the last twelve months have carried both sensations. My personal experience started in the early morning hours when the storm arrived . I have been in the middle of Hurricanes and this wasn’t like that. The wind gusted, but it didn’t roar. The storm came from the Gulf of Mexico, so much of the wind energy had dissipated, but the rain became a steady deluge that went on for hours.

Hickory was by no means ground zero of Helene’s destruction. I have seen what others went through. 20 miles west  and further from here in Burke, McDowell, Rutherford counties and along the Eastern Continental divide ridge line. That is where the storm stalled out and the rain came down the slope. These things have happened before around here. Back over a hundred years ago there was a little town called Mortimer up near Wilson’s Creek in Caldwell county that got washed out twice in around a 20 year span.

As the morning of September 27 moved along, I eventually lost my access to the internet and there were issues with cell service. The electricity blipped off a few times and once for a couple of hours. There were some limbs down and the neighbor had to cut one up that was blocking his driveway, but other than some water seeping into the basement there was no major damage.

My boss called and said they were going to open, but there was no rush to get to work. We were going to have some customers, because the club where I was working is in a closed community and some of the people there don’t know much about cooking or don’t have a desire to cook – modern convenience culture and all.

As I have stated on here before, I drove to work and took a path where I knew there would be no flooding and if the road was blocked it would be dealt with in short order. I didn’t see any trees down or power down. It just looked like one of those rainy Autumn days you always see. I only saw a tree down a couple of blocks from work and it had been mostly dealt with.

At work, there were only three of us working in the kitchen as opposed to the normal seven or eight. Many people take adverse weather conditions as an opportunity for a day off – I don’t. We worked our shift and did a bit of business, but we were never swamped, and at 9pm we were out of there.

I headed home, heading back the way I have thousands of times before, and I struck a humongous tree at 40mph, and was very lucky that wasn’t the end. Not to get back into this rabbit hole, because there is a book’s worth of material here, but I was less than an inch away from not being here. Like a friend said, “That was iffy.” When the rescue squad checked my blood pressure about 15 (or so) minutes later and it was 240/140. I called my sister and she was there in a hurry, I went to the hospital and got my head glued. That would be another part of the book.

 

The sun rose the next day and I caught a ride to work. I would never drive that little red car again. I didn’t really know what was going on in the world or about the aftermath of Helene. Over the next few days I discovered just how lucky I was. After Helene, the area to the west of here wasn’t the same. Any low lying areas from Morganton, Marion, Chimney Rock, and west of Asheville were flooded. Roads were buckled, rivers had changed course, homes lay open like broken boxes. The power of Helene hadn’t come from the wind. It was the aftermath of the water it wrung out over the tops of the Appalachian mountains that had nowhere to go but down the slopes to run through the valleys. We saw people’s videos of houses falling off the sides of the mountains and the valleys became rivers of debris.

Some people thought the shock would fade once the electricity was restored, once school buses rolled again, once the National Guard packed up and left. But as the months went by, the aftershocks revealed themselves to be heavier than the storm itself: families pushed into cramped motel rooms when trailers ran short; businesses shuttered after insurance stalled; children dealt with schools that were having to be renovated because of damage. Much of the visible damage has been cleared now, but the invisible wreckage still lingers on.

What people remember most may not be the floodwaters but the waiting. Waiting in lines for bottled water. Waiting for FEMA inspectors who came late or not at all. Waiting for claims adjusters to return phone calls. Waiting for the first check that might bridge a mortgage payment or cover a truck repair. And then waiting again when the money didn’t stretch as far as promised. In the stories told around kitchen tables, the storm often appears as a backdrop. The main character has been the wait.

Yet against the fatigue there were flashes of strength. Community churches opened their doors when shelters filled. Volunteer crews cleared roads before counties sent in equipment. Neighbors ran extension cords across yards to power a fridge, or cooked meals for families living without. These moments were never broadcast in Washington or Raleigh press releases, but they formed the foundation of recovery. In the quiet corners of these communities, people did for each other what systems failed at.

Scars remain. A year later, you can drive through parts of the affected areas and see houses with tarps over damaged roofs. You can walk into shops where “Help Wanted” signs hang, not because business is booming, but because the staff left town after losing homes that were condemned or apartments they could no longer afford. You can hear in ordinary conversations a fatigue that doesn’t fade: the sense that rebuilding has been something endured, not supported.

Anniversaries invite two instincts: remembrance and assessment. We remember the losses and the trials, but we also measure what has been learned, what has changed, and what has been ignored. Hurricane Helene was a natural disaster; the year that followed was a civic one. The storm revealed the strength of neighborliness and the limits of bureaucracy. It showed the cracks in housing, healthcare, and infrastructure. And it left behind a question that still echoes: if this happens again—and it will—will we be any more ready?

That is what this week’s News and Views must consider. Not only the night Helene struck, but the 365 days that followed, and the lives reshaped by both the storm and the system. This reflection is not about re-living fear, but about recognizing the burdens still carried by families and the lessons still waiting to be claimed. A year has passed, but the test of memory is whether it becomes preparation.

 Hurricane Helene Data References & Citations 

 

 

 

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📤This Week:

 

Monday - (Substack) -  The Foothills Corridor - Chapter 15&16: Healthcare & Renewable Energy - In a region grappling with economic displacement and demographic shifts, healthcare is emerging not just as a necessity. The rise of renewable energy infrastructure in the region marks one of the most understated but high-potential pivots in the local economy.

 

Tuesday - 🌐⭐The Dirt Is Moving—But What Are We Really Building? (Part 2)⭐🌐 - Hickory’s Housing Boom and the Risks of Short-Term Growth

 

 Thursday - 🧱  Factions of Self‑Preservation 4: The Invisible Majority -  How Immigrant Labor Keeps Hickory Running—While Remaining Tactically Excluded. Author’s Note:  This installment of Factions of Self-Preservation examines the immigrant side of the equation within the Shrinking Center framework. It reflects the conditions and dynamics faced by this group, but does not necessarily represent my broader personal view on immigrant status or policy.

 

 Friday -  (Substack) - The Foothill Corridor - Chapter 17: Community Education and Youth Retention - In a region where generational talent has long been exported to urban centers, the challenge now is not just to prepare youth for opportunity—but to build opportunity where they already are.

 

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📤Next Week:

Monday - (Substack) -  The Foothills Corridor - Part V - Scaling and Strategy - Chapter 18: The 20-County Challenge - The Foothills Corridor has proven it’s not done. We've seen the collapse, we've tracked the early signals, and we’ve documented the foundations that are starting to hold. But now comes the real test: Can the region move from isolated progress to coordinated momentum?

 

Tuesday - Dear Rachel – Episode 7: When Bodies Break & Systems Don’t Heal - confronts the human cost of chronic illness, economic displacement, and fading community memory. Through the voices of a disabled worker, an executive complicit in outsourcing, and a ghostly reminder of lost industry, the episode reveals how fragile bodies and fractured systems intertwine. It underscores the gap between resilience and support, urging protections for disabled workers, accountability in economic policy, and respect for memory as a guide to rebuilding.

 

 Thursday - 🧱 Factions of Self‑Preservation 5: No Way Up -  How Workforce Misalignment Injures Career Mobility and Economic Renewal

 

 Friday -  (Substack) - The Foothill Corridor - Chapter 19: Governance, Procurement, and Public-Private Coordination - the biggest ideas often stall—not because they’re unworthy, but because the systems needed to support them are fragmented, outdated, or misaligned. Good intentions die in committee. Bold ideas get buried under red tape. Projects fizzle out when public and private actors aren’t rowing in the same direction.

  

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 ⭐ Feature Story ⭐

Hurricane Helene: One Year of Recovery in the Foothills Corridor 

Immediate Aftermath (Sept–Oct 2024)

When Helene made landfall in late September 2024, the federal government issued disaster declarations within 48 hours. FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) teams staged in Asheville and Hickory within the week, but logistics snarled as roads and bridges into mountain valleys were washed out. In Catawba and Burke Counties, Duke Energy reported more than 200,000 outages; full grid restoration took nearly three weeks in some rural hollows. Emergency shelters opened in Hickory, Lenoir, and Morganton, but capacity was thin — local gyms and churches improvised space for families waiting on cots and generators.

 

 

 

First 90 Days (Oct–Dec 2024)

By Thanksgiving, debris cleanup was only halfway to federal benchmarks. FEMA had approved thousands of aid applications, but many households were still waiting for checks. NC Emergency Management coordinated temporary trailer housing in Caldwell and Wilkes Counties, yet demand outstripped supply. Local relief funds — especially church-driven efforts and donations routed through the Red Cross — filled immediate food and clothing gaps. The National Guard played a key role clearing roads and distributing water. Still, by year’s end, the bottleneck of insurance claims and FEMA paperwork left many families in limbo.

 

Six-Month Mark (March 2025)

By spring, the numbers revealed both progress and delay. Roughly half of destroyed or heavily damaged homes in Catawba, Burke, and Caldwell had permits filed for repair, but fewer than a third were completed. Federal and state dollars authorized for infrastructure were slow to hit local budgets; bridges remained closed on secondary roads, forcing long commutes and cutting off farm access. Businesses struggled: some restaurants and small shops in downtown Hickory never reopened, while others limped back with reduced staff. Local hospitals bore ongoing strain, treating both storm injuries and the mental-health fallout of displacement.

 

Twelve Months (Sept 2025)

At the one-year mark, the ledger shows uneven recovery. Thousands of households across the western counties remain displaced — some doubled up with relatives, others still in temporary units. A non-trivial number of jobs were permanently lost, especially in tourism corridors like Chimney Rock and Blowing Rock, where visitor traffic never fully returned. In Catawba County, foreclosure and eviction filings tied to storm damage have risen steadily, reflecting the gap between insurance expectations and payouts. Several major roads and bridges remain under repair, while others were reopened with only temporary fixes.


Successes

  • FEMA’s early arrival, paired with NC Emergency Management, prevented an even deeper humanitarian crisis in the first weeks.

  • Volunteer networks — especially churches, the Salvation Army, and the National Guard — provided food, clothing, and shelter where official systems lagged.

  • Debris cleanup and power grid recovery, though slower than promised, restored basic functions before the winter freeze.

Failures

  • Insurance delays became a defining frustration, with many claims contested or underpaid.

  • FEMA paperwork bottlenecks left families waiting months for checks.

  • Federal infrastructure dollars authorized did not translate into timely rebuilds on local roads.

  • Rural areas — especially low-income neighborhoods in Caldwell and Wilkes — waited longest for housing support and debris removal.

Policy Misalignments

  • Federal housing vouchers clashed with a local housing shortage: paper aid existed, but no units were available.

  • State mandates required counties to meet strict reporting and compliance schedules that overwhelmed thinly staffed local offices.

  • Insurance companies exploited loopholes, classifying water vs. wind damage in ways that reduced payouts.

Metrics

  • Tens of thousands of FEMA assistance applications were filed; approval rates fell below expectations, leaving many in appeal limbo.

     

  • Less than 60% of infrastructure funds allocated to the region have been spent.

  • Housing permits issued for rebuilds trail demand: completion rates hover near one-third.

  • Eviction filings in Catawba County climbed by double digits, with storm damage a contributing factor.

Tensions

  • Agencies cite the need for compliance rules; locals experience them as red tape.

  • Governments prioritize big bridges and highways; residents wait for basic neighborhood repairs.

  • Political leaders make recovery announcements; displaced families still stare at tarps and trailers.

Hurricane Helene Feature Analysis with Suggested Footnotes / Reference List


This is the spine - Twelve months on, Helene’s record shows both real effort and real gaps. Aid arrived but often stalled; recovery advanced but left many behind. The storm is over — but for thousands in the Foothills, the disaster still frames daily life. 

The Impact of Helene a year later 9/27/2025

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  File:Greek lc alpha.svgMy Own Time Ω

A year after Helene, it is clear who has borne up and who remains burdened. Students displaced by the storm—some 2,500 across western North Carolina—remain classified as homeless under state data. (AP News) Those from low-income families and rural areas have had the fewest options: limited housing, delayed returns to school, and emotional trauma that is still unaddressed. Homeowners with robust insurance coverage found more stability; renters and those underinsured remain most vulnerable.

The divide between the rural mountain communities and more urban centers has only sharpened. While counties closer to Asheville or Hickory have seen more rapid power restoration and infrastructure repair, remote valleys remain isolated, sometimes without reliable clean water for weeks. In Swannanoa, for example, safe drinking water remained unobtainable for over 50 days after water treatment systems failed. (The Guardian) Many rural schools, already underfunded, reopened physically before many students had stable, safe homes. (AP News)

One of the lingering misconceptions is that once aid was pledged, lives were restored. In truth, while over $5.2 billion in federal relief has been allocated so far, estimates place total damages near $60 billion across the region. (AP News) The fact that Governor Stein has requested an additional $13.5 billion just to continue relief efforts underscores how far short initial aid has fallen. (AP News)

Quiet truths that now stand in relief are the strain on small hospitals and clinics. While many health facilities survived the grid failures, the demand for care—especially mental health care—rose sharply. Health care professionals report dealing with both acute injuries from the disaster and the longer-tail emotional toll among displaced and storm-traumatized populations. (WUNC) Volunteer organizations remain crucial. Mutual aid networks, churches, community kitchens stepped in where bureaucratic systems lagged. One story out of Asheville describes queer mutual aid groups delivering supplies into remote areas before FEMA teams arrived. Them

From all this emerge lessons that are unavoidable. Speed matters more than announcements. The delays—in fund disbursement, in insurance adjudication, in infrastructure repair—cripple recovery. Local capacity must be built before disaster, not summoned afterward. Many of the hardest-hit areas were those without strong, local emergency planning or resilient infrastructure in place. Recovery reveals itself not merely in rebuilt roads or patched roofs, but in housing availability, healthcare access, stable jobs, and preservation of dignity.

Trade-offs loom. The region must invest now in resilient infrastructure, even where it seems expensive, or risk paying many times more later—in lives, economic losses, and civic distrust. The cost of temporary housing, emergency water systems, and health clinic catch-ups is high. But the cost of ignoring those needs may be far greater.

One year later, Helene offers more than a story of destruction: it offers a mirror. It shows how systems and people interact under strain, where promise meets procedure, and where everyday lives are shaped by both relief and neglect. The measure of our recovery will not just be how much was rebuilt, but how many of us were left behind. Will we remember Helene’s lessons and be better prepared next time? The work from now on must prove that we will. 

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🌸 Haiku

Rain carved through the hills,
Homes wait longer than the storm—
Neighbors hold the line.


🥠 Fortune Cookie Reading

“Systems may falter, but strength is found in the quiet acts of care. What you prepare today is the shelter you will need tomorrow.” 

Saturday, September 20, 2025

Hickory, NC News & Views | September 21, 2025 | Hickory Hound

 



 

 If this matters…

Comment. Send a letter you'd like me to post. Like the Hickory Hound on my various platforms. Subscribe. Share it on your personal platforms. Share your ideas with me. Tell me where you think I am wrong. If you'd like to comment, but don't want your comments publicized, then they won't be. I am here to engage you.

Get in touch: hickoryhoundfeedback@gmail.com

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 🧠Opening Reflection:

Every week I sit down to write News and Views, and I am reminded that this column has become more than a systematic roundup of journaling. It has its own rhythm now. This rhythm did not come from a plan but from natural evolution — the beating heart of a platform that has matured and continues to grow. Its structure rests on three parts that mirror community prominence: Creation and Introduction, the Body of existence, and the definition that comes through analysis.

News and Views begins with an Opening Reflection — the present moment, the snapshot of where we stand. Reflection is the “what’s up” of the week, the human entry point before the weight of numbers and evidence. It sets the tone, offering a pause to take stock of the ecosystem and its climate.

Reflection is the metaphorical weather — the lived pulse of a moment, the awareness of what one is dealing with. In a game, it is the first time you look at the hand you’ve been dealt. It may be the strain of bills stacked too high, the relief of a job finally found, or the silence after a neighbor moves away. Without Reflection, the column would start cold, straight into charts and arguments. With it, the reader feels grounded: this is what it feels like to be here, now.

A Reflection is a scene. It might begin with something as ordinary as a cracked sidewalk panning up to a shuttered storefront. The sidewalk is not the story, but it captures what people are walking through in the present. From there, the column pivots to the Feature Story, where the record — the audit, the analysis — puts numbers and history behind what Reflection first revealed.

The Feature is the backbone, the record that holds. It is where foundation, beams, and bricks are laid: numbers, policies, facts, causes and consequences. It is written to last, so that a year from now someone can still see how the story unfolded. Without the record, Reflection carries no weight. Without Reflection, the record lacks color. Each gives the other value. Together, they create balance.

Finally, there is My Own Time — marked with alpha and omega, the beginning and the end. It is where raw evidence is brought to closure. It is not necessarily the end of the story, but it is the end of this story, this chapter, and when successful it points to what comes next. It may not reflect everyone’s exact experience, but it sparks dialogue about possibilities — and dialogue itself is part of truth.

News and Views now closes with a haiku and a fortune cookie reading. Small gestures, yes, but deliberate ones. The haiku distills the week’s theme; the fortune cookie offers a simple takeaway for the road. Even the heaviest analysis carries more weight when it ends with a human pulse of contemplation.

This structure was not present in the beginning. It evolved because the times demanded it. Communities need immediacy, permanence, and narrative — not one, but all three. That is what News and Views has become: a pattern of reflection, record, and meaning. Week by week, it has become the architecture we are building together.

The structure of News and Views is a civic blueprint — reflection, record, and meaning in balance. We study our reality to understand it. This is about comprehension. And if we can learn not only to read within that framework but to live inside it, then we stop drifting week to week and start building toward a future where we can adapt, progress, and succeed. That is why this column matters.

Executive Summary of this weeks News and Views 


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📤This Week:

 

Monday - (Substack) -  The Foothills Corridor - Chapter 12 & 13 New Age Infrastructure and What's Workinga different kind of infrastructure is reshaping the foundation of the region. There’s a growing list of efforts that are quietly, steadily changing the game. These projects work not because they’re perfect, but because they’re rooted, responsive, and replicable.

 

Tuesday - Dear Rachel – Episode 6: The Pandemic Aftermath - explores the generational scars of COVID-19 through three archetypes: the Masked Babies, Kids in a Mess, and the Interrupted Generation. From speech delays to learning loss to stalled careers, these voices reveal how the pandemic reshaped the Shrinking Center—making stability rarer, milestones harder, and resilience more urgent.

 Thursday - 🧱 Factions of Self-Preservation 3: Aging Without Anchoring -reveals how Hickory’s retiree-driven growth model is quietly distorting the city’s planning priorities, voting patterns, and generational balance. With over 25% of the population now over 60, the system is increasingly shaped by those who benefit from preservation—not preparation. A thought-provoking breakdown of zoning, healthcare, schools, and infrastructure challenges a city stuck in neutral.

 

 Friday -  (Substack) - The Foothills Corridor - Part IV - Weak Signal Strong Potential - Chapter 14: Reimagined Weak signals that—if nurtured, expanded, and connected—could become the spine of a new regional identity. A quiet reimagining of craft beer, tourism, and cultural heritage is taking root across the region, offering a new kind of economic engine: one rooted in experience, narrative, and local pride.

 

  📤Next Week:

 

Monday - (Substack) -  The Foothills Corridor - Chapter 15&16: Healthcare & Renewable Energy

 

Tuesday - 🌐⭐The Dirt Is Moving—But What Are We Really Building? (Part 2)⭐🌐 - Hickory’s Housing Boom and the Risks of Short-Term Growth

 

 Thursday - 🧱  Factions of Self‑Preservation 4: The Invisible Majority -  How Immigrant Labor Keeps Hickory Running—While Remaining Tactically Excluded

 

 Friday -  (Substack) - The Foothill Corridor - Chapter 17: Community Education and Youth Retention

 

 ⭐ Feature Story ⭐

The past 2 years show where we are at today 

 Narrative Timeline of September 21, 2023 to today

Introduction

This report is a structural record covering the two years surrounding September 21, 2024—namely September 21, 2023 to September 21, 2025—and follows the format of the Legacy Compass reports, connecting international developments to United States (U.S.) trends and North Carolina (NC) business, economic, and cultural shifts. Where appropriate, macro movements are paired with concrete, dated indicators (for example, central-bank decisions, market data, and officially announced investments).

For example, U.S. monetary policy and mortgage costs moved together. The Federal Reserve (Fed) held its policy rate at a 22-year high through much of 2023–24 and only began cutting in September 2025, while 30-year mortgage rates climbed to multi-decade highs before easing in late 2025. This illustrates how policy actions ripple directly into households.

Environmental signals are treated in a similar way. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and partners confirmed a global mass coral-bleaching event in April 2024, with heat stress affecting roughly 84 percent of the world’s coral reef area through 2025—evidence of ongoing climate pressure that also manifested locally in storm and flood damage in NC that summer.


 

International Business, Economic News & Culture

After a pandemic-era surge and inflation shock, global goods trade contracted in 2023 before recovering. The World Trade Organization (WTO) estimated merchandise trade volume fell by –1.2 percent in 2023, with growth resuming in 2024–25. That contraction coincided with tighter monetary policy across major economies aimed at bringing inflation down.

In early September 2023, Beijing hosted the China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) (September 2–6) under the theme “Opening-up Leads Development, Cooperation Delivers the Future,” signaling China’s intent to shape global services and standards.

The war in Ukraine moved into its third year with sustained Western support. The Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker documented cumulative military, financial, and humanitarian aid commitments from 2022 through 2024–25, while press tallies in March 2025 put U.S. and European pledges into the hundreds of billions of euros.

Energy flows were visibly re-routed. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and independent analyses showed Russian crude exports shifting heavily toward China and India after the European Union (EU) embargoes, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets expanded capacity and rebalanced following the 2022–23 shock.

Technology policy became a central axis of competition. The EU Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act) entered into force on August 1, 2024, setting a comprehensive regulatory regime, while the U.S. and China advanced AI and semiconductor strategies through investment, export controls, and standards competition.

Climate indicators remained stark. On April 15, 2024, NOAA confirmed the fourth global coral-bleaching event. By September 2025, heat stress had affected approximately 84 percent of global reef area across at least 83 countries and territories.

By 2024–25, institutional groupings also shifted. The BRICS bloc—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa—expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2024; Indonesia joined as a full member in January 2025. This reflected a broader trend toward multipolar economic coordination.

 

 

International Trend Outlook: September 2025 → September 2026

High-End Odds (most likely outcomes)

  1. Global trade stabilizes with modest growth
    After the contraction of 2023 and recovery into 2024–25, the World Trade Organization (WTO) baseline suggests a continued but modest expansion through 2026, barring major shocks. Trade in services will likely grow faster than goods, with China’s initiatives like the China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) continuing to assert influence in shaping standards.

  2. Continued war of attrition in Ukraine
    The war is unlikely to resolve quickly. Western support (military, financial, humanitarian) remains consistent, but fatigue will grow on both sides. Russia’s pivot to Asian markets for energy and materials is locked in, and sanctions structures appear durable through 2026.

  3. Energy markets remain fragmented
    The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects steady demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG), with Asian buyers driving growth. Russian oil flows will remain directed toward China and India. Europe will sustain diversification efforts away from Russian hydrocarbons, embedding a multipolar energy order.

  4. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and semiconductor rivalry escalates
    With the European Union (EU) Artificial Intelligence Act in force, regulatory divergence between EU, U.S., and China will widen. Export controls and industrial subsidies will keep semiconductors and AI infrastructure at the center of global competition.


Mid-Range Odds (plausible but less certain)

  1. Climate stress drives visible economic impacts
    The April 2024–September 2025 coral bleaching was a major marker. Into 2026, another warm year could generate new reef loss, agricultural disruptions, and more severe weather. These events will reinforce climate adaptation as both a diplomatic and economic issue, though unevenly prioritized across regions.

  2. BRICS+ solidifies as an institutional counterweight
    The expansion to Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Indonesia will likely bring visible projects—currency swaps, development banks, or trade mechanisms. However, internal divisions could temper its actual effectiveness, leaving it more a signal bloc than a unified one.


Low-End Odds (possible but less probable)

  1. Sudden de-escalation or settlement in Ukraine
    A negotiated freeze or ceasefire is conceivable, especially if domestic pressures mount in Europe or the U.S. during election cycles. But structural factors (territorial disputes, NATO posture, Russian strategy) make this less probable within the next year.

  2. Sharp downturn in global trade
    A financial shock, protectionist spiral, or severe escalation in conflict (for example, Taiwan Strait tensions) could derail WTO forecasts. Odds are low but the tail risk is present.

  3. Breakthrough climate cooperation
    While climate disruption will intensify, a major breakthrough—such as binding global carbon trade systems or coordinated reef protection agreements—is unlikely by 2026. The odds favor incremental steps rather than sweeping consensus.


📌 Overall Trend Direction:
The most probable trajectory is a year of slow growth, persistent geopolitical strain, and widening technological-economic blocs, with climate pressure sharpening but without global institutional breakthroughs. The risk profile remains skewed toward conflict persistence and climate disruption rather than resolution or coordination.


 

United States Business, Economic News & Culture

U.S. inflation cooled from its 2022 peaks, but policy rates stayed high through 2023–24 before the Fed cut the target range to 4.00–4.25 percent on September 17, 2025. Mortgage costs moved with that regime: the 30-year fixed rate climbed to multi-decade highs in 2023–24 before easing into late 2025. Meanwhile, home prices measured by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Index reached new nominal highs in 2025.

Industrial policy translated into specific awards. The Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) Program advanced major subsidies in 2024—for example, Intel up to $7.865 billion, plus large packages for Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), and Micron—anchoring semiconductor capacity onshore.

At the same time, the AI and cloud build-out led to record or near-record capital expenditures by hyperscalers and surging electricity demand from data centers. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) estimated U.S. data centers consumed about 4.4 percent of total electricity in 2023 and could reach 6.7–12 percent by 2028; the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected computing could become the largest commercial end use by 2050. Market measures mirrored the boom—NVIDIA reached a $3 trillion market capitalization in June 2024 and later $4 trillion in July 2025 amid AI demand.

Health-system strain is well documented. Chartis reports showed hundreds of rural hospitals financially vulnerable or closed/converted since 2010, and the American Hospital Association (AHA) and Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) tracked persistent workforce shortages. In NC specifically, children’s hospital funding and Medicaid allocations remained active policy fights into September 2025.

 

United States Trend Outlook: September 2025 → September 2026

High-End Odds (most likely outcomes)

  1. Gradual easing of monetary policy, but credit stays tight
    The Federal Reserve (Fed) began cutting its policy rate in September 2025, but further reductions will be cautious. Mortgage rates will ease somewhat, yet affordability will remain strained. Credit conditions for households and small businesses will stay restrictive well into 2026.

  2. Persistent housing affordability crisis
    The Case-Shiller U.S. National Index shows home prices at record highs in 2025. Even if interest rates soften, limited housing supply and demographic demand will keep affordability out of reach for many buyers. Rental costs will continue to climb in metro regions, sustaining pressure on lower- and middle-income households.

  3. Industrial policy continues to channel investment
    The Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) Program and related subsidies will keep semiconductor, battery, and clean-tech projects in motion through 2026. These capital commitments are multi-year, ensuring momentum regardless of political volatility.

  4. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data center expansion accelerates
    Hyperscaler capital expenditures will remain historically high. The Department of Energy (DOE) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) project rising electricity demand from AI infrastructure, which will start to strain local grids. High-profile announcements of new data centers are highly likely in the next year.


Mid-Range Odds (plausible but less certain)

  1. Healthcare system strain intensifies
    Rural hospital closures and workforce shortages documented by Chartis, the American Hospital Association (AHA), and the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) will persist. Policy battles over Medicaid funding, telehealth expansion, and workforce incentives will sharpen through 2026.

  2. Labor market cools without collapsing
    Employment remains strong in 2025, but higher borrowing costs and corporate consolidation will slow hiring in interest-sensitive sectors (construction, retail, logistics). Wage growth will soften while inflation expectations remain anchored.

  3. 2026 election-year gridlock deepens policy uncertainty
    Partisan divisions will prevent comprehensive fiscal or social policy reforms. Industrial strategy will advance mainly through executive and agency action, while Congress remains stalemated.


Low-End Odds (possible but less probable)

  1. Sharp economic downturn
    A recession is not the base case, but a credit crunch, financial market shock, or geopolitical escalation could trigger a downturn in 2026. Current odds are moderate-to-low, with resilience built on fiscal spending and tech investment.

  2. Breakthrough in healthcare reform
    Sweeping action—such as a major bipartisan agreement on hospital support, drug pricing, or universal insurance—is unlikely. Incremental state-level reforms are far more probable.

  3. Housing affordability relief
    Large-scale construction booms or policy reforms that materially improve affordability within a year are improbable. Structural shortages and permitting bottlenecks make quick relief unlikely.


📌 Overall Trend Direction:
The U.S. outlook to September 2026 is defined by measured monetary easing, stubborn housing stress, and robust industrial/AI investment. Healthcare pressures and election-year gridlock will frame domestic debates. Risks tilt more toward stagnation than collapse—slow progress on core challenges rather than breakthroughs.


 

North Carolina Business, Economic News & Culture

NC consolidated its position as a magnet for advanced industry with several flagship announcements.

In May 2025, Roche/Genentech announced more than $700 million for a 700,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Holly Springs to produce next-generation metabolic medicines. The project broke ground in August 2025.

On June 4, 2025, Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced $10 billion in Richmond County for AI and cloud data-center infrastructure. State and local officials called it one of the largest investments in NC history, with about 500 high-skill jobs projected.

In June–July 2025, Jabil confirmed approximately $500 million in Rowan County to support cloud and AI data-center customers, with 1,181 jobs projected by 2030.

Environmental impacts within the period were also significant. Tropical Storm Chantal (July 2025) produced severe flooding in central NC, with Orange County estimating roughly $56 million in damages. Subsequent Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) assistance was approved.

North Carolina Trend Outlook: September 2025 → September 2026

High-End Odds (most likely outcomes)

  1. Advanced industry projects move into construction phase
    Roche/Genentech’s $700 million Holly Springs facility and Amazon Web Services’ (AWS) $10 billion Richmond County data centers are multi-year undertakings. Through 2026, ground-breaking, site prep, and early buildout will dominate. Jabil’s $500 million Rowan County expansion will also advance. These projects lock in momentum regardless of broader economic conditions.

  2. Strong labor demand in tech and biotech clusters, unevenly distributed
    Research Triangle, Charlotte, and Triad metros will absorb most of the high-skill jobs tied to data centers and pharmaceuticals. Rural counties will see less benefit beyond construction work, reinforcing long-standing geographic divides in NC’s growth story.

  3. Housing affordability remains acute in metro regions
    Raleigh, Durham, and Charlotte face supply constraints as population growth continues. With mortgage rates still elevated by historic standards, affordability pressures will remain one of the state’s most visible challenges into 2026.

  4. Environmental stress recurs
    Following Tropical Storm Chantal in July 2025, NC will remain vulnerable to flooding and storm damage in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Climate-linked events are highly probable and will expose gaps in local infrastructure resilience.


Mid-Range Odds (plausible but less certain)

  1. Healthcare pressures deepen in rural counties
    Hospital closures and staffing shortages will persist. State debates over Medicaid funding and children’s hospitals will continue into 2026, with outcomes shaped by political cycles.

  2. Education and workforce pipelines face strain
    As high-tech industries expand, gaps in training and skilled labor pipelines will become more evident. Community colleges and state universities may struggle to meet demand without new funding streams.

  3. Transportation and infrastructure bottlenecks sharpen
    Data center and industrial load growth will put stress on electricity supply. Highways around Charlotte, Raleigh, and I-85/40 corridors will see congestion worsen, fueling calls for expanded transit and road investment.


Low-End Odds (possible but less probable)

  1. Breakthrough in regional equity
    A policy shift that redistributes growth toward rural NC is unlikely within a year. Most investment announcements will continue to cluster in urban and suburban zones.

  2. Major climate adaptation funding surge
    Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) aid will follow storms, but a wholesale funding surge for flood control, resilient housing, or major environmental engineering projects is improbable within this timeframe.

  3. Political consensus on structural reforms
    Long-debated issues such as school system consolidation, infrastructure finance reform, or comprehensive housing policy will remain contentious and unlikely to be resolved before 2026 elections.


📌 Overall Trend Direction:
NC’s outlook to September 2026 is one of large-scale industrial buildout and metro-driven growth, tempered by rural healthcare stress, uneven job distribution, and recurring climate risk. The state will post impressive investment numbers, but the benefits will remain uneven, leaving structural divides unresolved.

 


 

 Foothills Corridor Business, Economic News & Culture

Spanning 20 counties west of Interstate 85, north of U.S. 74, south of U.S. 421, and east of the Blue Ridge Parkway, the Foothills Corridor represents a transitional zone between North Carolina’s high-growth metros and its rural mountain periphery. Between September 2023 and September 2025, its trajectory reflected both statewide industrial momentum and the sharpest edges of environmental disruption.

Major advanced-industry investments defined the statewide narrative but largely bypassed the Corridor. While Roche/Genentech, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Jabil announcements caught headlines, within the Corridor Microsoft’s multi-phase data-center buildout in Catawba County stood as a rare anchor project. Smaller expansions in food processing, furniture component manufacturing, and logistics appeared in Burke, Alexander, and Rutherford, but none approached the scale of metro-area awards.

Housing and affordability pressures intensified. By 2024, median home prices leapt in Catawba, Lincoln, and Wilkes Counties, fueled by spillover demand from Charlotte and the Triad. Rural counties with stagnant incomes felt the pinch most: rents rose, vacancy rates tightened, and eviction filings increased in Burke, Caldwell, and McDowell.

Environmental stressors took on full force with Hurricane Helene in September 2024, which left deep scars across the western Edge of the Corridor. Vast rainfall triggered floodwaters and landslides that destroyed roads and bridges, knocked out utilities, displaced thousands of households, and disrupted schools. Educational instability hit hard—students classified as homeless numbered in the thousands across rural western counties—and cultural and tourism sites like Chimney Rock saw business losses and closures. The damage spanned infrastructure, power, and water systems, compounding stress on health care and public safety capacities already stretched thin.

Healthcare vulnerabilities persisted. Several hospitals in Burke, Caldwell, Wilkes, and Ashe Counties were flagged as financially vulnerable, echoing national warnings from the American Hospital Association (AHA). North Carolina’s Medicaid expansion in December 2023 helped cover some gaps, but rural clinics faced persistent staffing shortages in nursing, behavioral health, and primary care, making regional hubs more essential yet overburdened.

Civic identity and culture continued to provide anchors. Minor-league baseball via the Hickory Crawdads, the MerleFest in Wilkes, and events in other small venues gave people spaces to gather and remember, even as local governments argued over school district consolidation, land use, and water management decisions vital for long-term resilience.

By September 2025, the Foothills Corridor stood as a region of contrasts: it hosted technology infrastructure and cultural institutions but also bore disproportionate damage from Helene and related climate events; rural hospital distress; widening gaps between counties nearer metros and those more remote. The question lingering into the future is whether local leaders can convert recovery into broader resilience and whether the Corridor can demand more than spillover from the state’s center of gravity.

 

Foothills Corridor Trend Outlook: September 2025 → September 2026

High-End Odds (most likely outcomes)

  1. Housing stress worsens for working families
    Hickory and nearby towns already lack affordable rentals. With prices pushed up by retirees, commuters, and outside investors, affordability will deteriorate further. Eviction risk stays high in older stock across Catawba and Burke. Hurricane Helene’s flood damage removed units from the market in parts of Caldwell, Wilkes, and Burke, tightening supply even more.

  2. Labor market stays polarized
    Hiring holds in health care, warehousing, retail, and services, but wages lag inflation. High-skill roles cluster in Charlotte, the Research Triangle, and GSP; the Corridor remains a labor-export region. Helene recovery work (construction, debris removal, infrastructure repair) gives a short-term bump without durable career ladders.

  3. Healthcare strain intensifies
    Frye Regional and Catawba Valley Medical Center continue battling workforce shortages; rural facilities in Caldwell, Burke, Wilkes remain financially fragile. Post-Helene displacement and damage add demand and cost pressure. Chronic illness (diabetes, addiction, aging) keeps volumes high while capacity stays tight.

  4. Infrastructure gaps become more visible
    Helene exposed weak points in roads, bridges, stormwater, and utilities. U.S.-321 and I-40 congestion worsens with freight and commuting. Broadband divides between metro Hickory and outlying communities (Taylorsville, Valdese, Granite Falls) remain a drag on education and small business.


Mid-Range Odds (plausible but less certain)

  1. Industrial buildout occurs nearby but not in Hickory proper
    Richmond County (AWS), Rowan County (Jabil), and Holly Springs (Roche/Genentech) capture marquee projects. Hickory/Catawba see spin-off construction and supplier activity, but not headline wins—fueling frustration at being bypassed.

  2. Retail and service churn continues
    Legacy shops close; strip-mall turnover persists. National discount chains dominate; independents and mid-range restaurants struggle. Any Helene-related spending pop is temporary.

  3. Cultural sector resilience
    Hickory Crawdads, Hickory Museum of Art, MerleFest, and local festivals hold steady as anchors. Many storm-affected venues and tourism businesses stay fragile; expansion is unlikely without new capital.


Low-End Odds (possible but less probable)

  1. Breakthrough in school system consolidation
    Despite duplicated costs across Hickory, Newton-Conover, and Catawba County systems, governance and politics make near-term consolidation unlikely—even after Helene’s stress test.

  2. Transformative new employer lands in Hickory
    A large tech/pharma/advanced-manufacturing anchor choosing Hickory or Catawba by 2026 is a low-probability outcome given workforce pipeline and infrastructure advantages elsewhere.

  3. Major climate or environmental investment
    Helene underscored flood and landslide risk, but a sweeping resilience package (e.g., major stormwater overhauls, reservoir dredging, hardening bridges) within a year is unlikely; expect piecemeal recovery funds instead.


📌 Overall Trend Direction:
Sluggish growth under pressure. Helene’s damage amplifies housing shortages, healthcare stress, and infrastructure fragility. Cultural anchors persist but remain modest in reach. Big industrial wins continue to cluster eastward, leaving the Foothills Corridor to capture indirect benefits while carrying a heavier load of recovery and resilience work.

 

How this all fits together:

1. International → United States

  • Global inflation + monetary tightening (WTO, IMF, Federal Reserve) → kept U.S. interest rates high through 2025. That shapes housing, credit, and investment decisions across the country.

  • Energy realignment (Russia → Asia, Europe → LNG diversification) → U.S. becomes more central in global energy supply, which stabilizes national energy costs but also fuels debate over grid stress from AI and data centers.

  • Technology rivalry (EU AI Act, U.S./China export controls) → anchors U.S. industrial policy around semiconductors, AI, and critical tech, setting the stage for where money flows.


2. United States → North Carolina

  • Federal industrial policy (CHIPS Program, DOE clean-energy subsidies) → brings multi-billion-dollar commitments into NC: Roche/Genentech, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Jabil.

  • Persistent housing shortage at national scale → mirrors in NC metros: Raleigh, Durham, Charlotte, and by extension inflates costs spilling into secondary markets like Hickory.

  • Healthcare fragility at the U.S. level (AHA/HRSA warnings) → hits NC hardest in rural counties where hospitals teeter on closure, intensifying regional disparities.


3. North Carolina → Hickory / Foothills Corridor

  • Industrial buildout clusters elsewhere → Raleigh, Charlotte, Triad win major employers; Hickory sees spin-off construction jobs but not core anchors. This reinforces the sense of being bypassed in the “Corridor economy.”

  • Housing affordability pressure → Charlotte and Raleigh’s surging demand pushes some buyers outward, raising costs in Hickory. Investors and retirees intensify price competition with local working families.

  • Healthcare strain → mirrors statewide closures: Hickory’s two main hospitals remain, but surrounding counties (Caldwell, Alexander, Burke) risk downgrades. Hickory absorbs patient overflow, further stressing capacity.

  • Infrastructure stress → the U.S. electricity demand spike from AI/data centers echoes locally as Duke Energy prioritizes load for industrial customers. Meanwhile, I-40 and U.S. 321 congestion worsens as logistics traffic rises.


4. Local Feedback Outward

  • Labor export region → Hickory workers commuting to Charlotte/Raleigh feed metro growth, but hollow out local wage growth. This creates tension: Hickory supplies labor, but cannot command the investment.

  • Cultural continuity (Crawdads, arts, festivals) → provides symbolic stability, but without major infusion, it does not scale outward to redefine the region’s identity within NC.

  • Fractured school governance → hampers regional competitiveness compared to consolidated, better-funded metro systems. That weakens Hickory’s bid for advanced employers.


📌 The Gear Effect:

  • The international gear turns → trade recovery, energy realignment, AI regulation.

  • That torque drives the U.S. gear → monetary policy, industrial subsidies, healthcare stress.

  • Which then spins the North Carolina gear → big-city investment, climate exposure, metro housing pressure.

  • And finally, the smallest gear — Hickory and the Foothills Corridor — bears the sharp, grinding edge: housing crunch, being bypassed for new jobs, stressed hospitals, overused roads.

  Source List to the where we are (key references above)


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File:Greek lc alpha.svgMy Own Time Ω

Next week we will look back to the one year anniversary of Hurricane Helene and its impact on the area over the past 12 months. I am sure there will be a ton of stories written and told through the legacy media outlets, but I won't be looking to tell the story through a hit and run lens.

My story of Helene is personal. A story where I went about life that day as normal, attempting to navigate with the steadfastness and stoic resolve necessary to weather a storm. I got up and dealt with the internet going out and eventually the power going out. I went to work and drove down the main roads and the Interstate and only saw one tree down, which had nearly been cleaned up. We worked with a skeleton crew, because most of the people where I worked don't have the crazy kind of commitment and work ethic I do. We worked with a skeleton crew of 3 people in the kitchen instead of the normal 7 to 8. 

I always tell the story of what JR Ewing told Sue Ellen in a scene of Dallas about the breakfast plate. The Hog that provides the Bacon is committed. The Chicken that provides the Eggs is involved. There is something innate in my upbringing that created an underlying essence of commitment to the endeavors I become involved in, so I end up doing things others refuse to do. Most everyone in my family is like that. It is our family culture.

Anyway, I left work at about 10pm and I was ready to get home. I went back my normal route and everything was routine until it wasn't. Driving down a road I had traveled down thousands of times before I hadn't noticed that the electricity was apparently out. The terrain of the road did not allow me to see what lied ahead. There wasn't a proper barrier that would have slowed me down or prohibited access to that area. The undulations in the road didn't allow me to see that the road was blocked by a massive tree. 

I was a few hundred feet away from the tree when I got my foot off the gas and hit the tree at around 40 miles per hour. It was a massive impact and dead stop that was timestamped in microseconds. The horn blared the entire time and I'm like, Oh my God, Oh my God, Oh my God and the door frames were bent as I had to force my way out of the car. The people that lived on the road were running up. They were paying me a vigil, because they thought they were walking up to a death, but I was walking down the road... I will just leave this here for now, but I have thought about this every day over the past year and I don't see that stopping.

I was lucky... so many people weren't. You can make all of these preparations. You can be committed and life can come at you in microseconds. Sometimes you can make a mistake and do something stupid and sometimes you are just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Many of us have seen the scenes. People watching their houses get swept away. Watching the forces of nature display the powers of cause and effect. You can be the reason or the bystander. Either way you have to deal with the consequences of life.

And yet, as hard as that night was, in many ways what came afterward was worse. The storm passed, but the consequences did not. Families of those who died have carried an emptiness no recovery check can fill. Survivors went into winter without shelter, trapped by delays and political gamesmanship. Jobs disappeared, businesses folded, industries pulled back — the kind of losses that don’t make headlines but weaken the fabric of a region. Rural counties bore the brunt, straining under damage and dislocation, while metro centers pressed forward as if nothing had happened.

These are the stories that linger — the unseen tolls of Helene’s first year. They are not just memories of a storm; they are reminders of how a community is tested when the spotlight fades. Next week we will trace them carefully, because what happened after Helene may tell us more about ourselves than what happened during it.

-----------------------------

📝 Haiku:

Storm fades into night,
but silence carries the weight—
the aftershocks live.


🥠 Fortune Cookie Reading:

The true test comes after the storm: when the headlines are gone, commitment must remain.