.... To be sure, parts of the U.S. are recovering. Experts expect the economy to grow an average of 3% in the second half of this year. Thirty metropolitan areas will have reached their pre-recession peaks by the end of 2011. More than half of the nation’s 363 metropolitan areas are expected to return to their employment peaks by 2014 or before. Others are not so lucky.
The IHS report lists 37 metropolitan areas which are not expected to return to peak employment until after 2021. These areas are facing a “Lost Decade.” Some may never fully recover, although it’s probably useless to try to predict what may happen a decade or more from today....
.... Some cities are forced to address problems beyond manufacturing, yet in the end they face the same results. Atlantic City’s gaming industry has lost its previous strength due to increasing competition from neighboring states such as Pennsylvania which have legalized gaming in recent years. Hickory, North Carolina, was once a major center for furniture production. Many jobs there have since been sent overseas, causing textile mills to close down and workers to be laid-off.
The ten American cities discussed in this article were chosen for the large sizes of their workforces and the fact that they are not expected to have recoveries to their pre-recession employment rates until after 2021. They have lost the industries which once made them prosperous and they will probably never get them back....
4. Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
- Change in employment 2001-2011: -13.6%
- Population: 365,497
- Unemployment: 11.7%
- Poverty level: 14.4%
- Median income: $40,181
Unemployment in Hickory, NC, soared from 2% to 16% during the recession, according to USA Today. The jobless rate has since decreased to 11.7%, although this is still significantly higher than the national average of 9.1%. The area’s economy is largely based on the production of furniture and fiber optics. Both industries have seen mass layoffs in recent years. According to an article in the Washington Post, “the region has lost more of its jobs to international competition than just about anywhere else in the nation.”
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- A study prepared for the U.S. Conference of Mayors' annual meeting had a bleak prediction for the unemployment outlook in the Hickory metro area.
It said unemployment levels won't reach pre-recession levels for another decade.
The HIS Global Insight research firm put the hickory metro area near the bottom in the road for recovery nationwide.
"Honestly, it's hard to predict that far out," said Ronnie Grantham, manager of the Employment Security Commission office in Catawba County. "We are actually starting to see some positive things economy-wise around here."...
... As things improve, whenever that is, say officials, they don't expect major growth in the manufacturing sector.
That was the hardest hit by the recession with thousands of jobs lost and people heading back to school to learn new trades.
"Our growth right now has been in the service sector, call centers and things like that," said Grantham.
Some manufacturers are hiring but not in large amounts. Grantham said local economic officials are working to lure new businesses in but admits it is a slow process...
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Report: Local employment to recover by 2014 - Charlotte Observer - Kirsten Valle Pittman & Barbara Barrett - June 21, 2011 - Still, the study predicts the Charlotte region's employment rate will recover by mid-2014.
The Charlotte region will return to its pre-recession employment peak by mid-2014, years before beleaguered metros such as Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas, a new report found. But the area still faces a slow climb toward recovery, trailing cities from Raleigh to Dallas to Pittsburgh, according to the study from the IHS Global Insight research firm, prepared for the U.S. Conference of Mayors' annual meeting and released Monday....
Some places, such as Austin, Texas, and Burlington, Vt., have already recovered, and others are expected to rebound several quarters before Charlotte. The report said more than half of the country's metro areas will return to their pre-recession employment peaks by the end of 2014. Despite its struggles, Charlotte is performing better than some areas: Stockton, Calif., for instance, posted one of the highest jobless rates in April, 17.3percent.
Forty-eight metro areas, including Detroit, North Carolina's Hickory region and others pummeled by manufacturing and real estate losses, aren't forecast to reach their pre-recession employment peaks this decade, the report found.
The Charlotte area fared better in other measures of economic health, too, the study found. The area's jobless rate has fallen faster than other metro areas over the past year. And the economy continues to grow: The region's economic output totaled $117.3billion in 2010, up 4percent from the year before and 5percent from 2007, before the recession began, the report found. Metro regions' health is a critical component of the broader economic recovery, the report said. U.S. metro areas contributed nearly 90percent of the nation's economic output and jobs last year.
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I would like to see a Regional Economic Partnership Entity that is focused on attracting business to our area, but we have to do this with an eye on a relationship with the other major metropolitan areas in our region, especially Charlotte. As, I have stated since the inception of this blog, one of the main attractions of our area is the geographical location of the Hickory area in relation to the other Metros up and down the Eastern Seaboard. It isn't about the natural scenic beauty of the area, because we aren't going to build a tourist contraption or retirees moving here to wind it down. The asset of our location is the fact that it is easy to get to and from our area and we can be a natural hub of transportation for larger metropolitan areas, including Charlotte, Atlanta, Greensboro, Columbia, Raleigh, Knoxville, Nashville, Washington, Pittsburgh, and so on.
We also need to work and adapt towards becoming a cog in the Energy Hub that Charlotte is evolving into with Duke Energy, Piedmont gas, and the innovative partnerships springing up as a result of these new concepts and innovation of energy.
The biggest issue is changing the mindset, energy, and focus of many of the people in this community. There is no energy or excitement. There is no sense of urgency. It is all about cutting back and winding down. You cannot build or maintain an economy like that. We don't have a decade to spare. We can't afford to wind down, especially in the dog-eat-dog economic environment we are in today. I know these are words, but to many of us these words mean something.
The only thing that is constant in life is change and people who attempt to maintain and devote extraordinary energy towards a status quo are wasting energy and time that should be devoted towards adaptation to new realities. What SilenceDoGood has stated in some of his commentary related to this area "having to be dragged kicking and screaming" into new realities is spot on in my opinion. That is what has us behind the 8-ball presently.
We have seen some evolution from business leaders who do understand that there is a need to get moving towards a new economic paradigm for the area, but there are many people in key/vital positions who either don't understand what is going on or they are protecting certain interests or constituencies at the expense of much needed progress. These people want to qualify and lay out parameters for competition in the local area; and in the mean time, while they are arguing over peanuts, National and Global interests have taken a sledgehammer to our economic foundation. What does this show? That our community's leaders weren't asking the proper questions or focusing on what the reality was and is. I don't need to repeat myself. I'll just point to links below of in-depth articles from this blog posted 5 months ago, 17 months ago, 29 months ago, 32 months ago, and the genesis of this blog posted nearly 48 months ago in our local newspaper.If you have never read these, then please do. I do not pretend to be a prophet. I am a thinker and the bottom line is that we need to start thinking about where we are headed, where we want to head, and how we are going to get there.