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📤This Week:
Monday - (Substack) - The Foothills Corridor - Conclusion: A Blueprint for Rural Reinvention - The
Foothills Corridor has been many things—an industrial engine, a
forgotten backwater, a place people left behind, and a place people
still refuse to leave. What’s emerged through this journey is not a
return-to-glory fantasy or a feel-good economic report. It’s something
harder, truer, and more necessary:
Tuesday - Dear Rachel - Episode 9: Building Amid Collapse - Episode 9 of Dear Rachel dives into the fading backbone of local economies: the people who still build amid decline.
Thursday - ⚙️Structural Schisms 1: The Vanishing Middle - Structural Schisms is a series about how Hickory’s systems function
— not just the people who work within them, but the design, duplication, and
disconnects that shape local results. Hickory’s
middle-income stability has eroded over twenty-five years as the cost of
ordinary living rose faster than household earnings.
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📤Next Week:
(Tuesday): Hickory 101: Class Introduction by the Hickory Hound - is a weekly guide that helps readers learn how to navigate The Hickory Hound and understand the deeper story behind their town. Each lesson connects the dots between money, culture, work, and well-being—showing how Hickory’s systems really function. It’s not civics or news; it’s a clear map of the community’s ecosystem
(Thursday): ⚙️Structural Schisms 2: Evicted by Design - Hickory’s housing problems didn’t happen by accident. They came from
choices — rules and policies that protect what’s already built instead of
helping people build a life here.
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🧠Opening Reflection:
Hickory’s
strength is not only seen in its streets or new projects—it’s also measured by
how its households balance their monthly bills. During October we examined the
four basic costs that shape everyday life here: housing, food, energy, and
health. Each of them has grown from a routine expense into a constant pressure.
The increase is not because residents manage money poorly; it’s because prices
have risen faster than wages. According to United
Way of North Carolina’s ALICE 2025 report, many working families
now earn too much to qualify for assistance but too little to cover all
necessities. In practical terms, “comfort” in Hickory today means being able to
meet monthly bills with only a small margin left over—not having money or time
to spare.
Housing set the
tone for the entire series. Over the past four years, mortgage rates have
roughly doubled from the “cheap money” period before the pandemic, while
available homes have remained limited. According to NC Department of Commerce’s 2024 Catawba County Profile,
the median sale price in Hickory had climbed to about $265,000 by 2024, and
rents averaged approximately $1,180 a month. For many working households, the
monthly mortgage payment for a modest starter home now exceeds the cost of rent
by several hundred dollars. What used to be the natural next step for
middle-income families—buying a first home—has become a financial climb that
demands help from family savings or additional years of work. As a result, more
residents are staying in rentals longer and commuting farther, waiting for the
numbers to make sense again.
Food costs tell
the same story that housing does: the math no longer works for many families.
Grocery prices in the Southeast rose about eight percent in 2024, while average
wages in Catawba County increased by roughly four percent. The result shows up
at the checkout line. According to United
Way of North Carolina’s ALICE 2025 report, about 39 percent of
county households live below the survival threshold—the level where basic
expenses exceed income. That number includes many people who work full time but
still fall short each month. In practical terms, the food basket is now built
around price and volume instead of preference. Families are planning meals to
stretch dollars, not to meet nutrition goals.
Electric power
used to be one of Hickory’s quiet advantages. That is no longer true. According
to Duke Energy Carolinas filings and U.S. Energy Information Administration data,
residential rates have increased about 40 percent over the past twenty-five
years, but the total household bill has risen more than 120 percent. The
difference comes from fuel surcharges, weather extremes, and higher year-round
use. A typical home that once paid around $80 a month now pays closer to $180.
For families with steady incomes, that rise is an inconvenience; for those
living on the edge, it can decide whether groceries or medicine get paid first.
Health costs
complete the picture of how survival has replaced comfort. The Catawba County Community Health Assessment (2023)
reports that 31 percent of adults delay care because of cost, and 14 percent
remain uninsured. The United
Way of North Carolina’s ALICE 2025 study estimates that a family of
four must budget about $735 a month for health care—roughly 13 percent of total
living expenses. That figure does not include dental, vision, or most
prescriptions, which continue to rise faster than wages. For many households,
even those with employer coverage, a medical emergency or one uncovered
procedure can erase savings for the year. The outcome shows up quietly across
the county: postponed appointments, untreated conditions, and growing medical
debt that follows families long after the illness has passed.
When all four
costs—housing, food, energy, and health—are added together, the pattern is
clear. The ALICE 2025 report
shows that the median household income in Catawba County, about $61,900, now
falls below the estimated survival budget of $67,860 for a family of four.
Roughly one-fifth of households can still be considered financially
comfortable. About two in five live paycheck to paycheck, covering bills with
little or no margin. The remaining two-fifths are either falling behind each
month or already below water. These numbers are not exaggeration or drama; they
are the public record of private life in Hickory. The question facing the city
is straightforward: will local systems find ways to ease these costs, or will
they continue to expect residents to shoulder more than they can reasonably
afford?
⭐ Feature Story ⭐
The Final Ledger of Comfort
Hickory’s
household economy in 2025 can be described as a single ledger made up of four
unshakable entries: housing, food, energy, and health. Each category was
examined during October, but taken together they reveal a pattern larger than
any one bill. They form the price of remaining part of the working middle (The
Shrinking Center) in Catawba County.
1. The
Four Ledgers as One System
Each of these
expenses—housing, food, energy, and health—comes from a different part of daily
life, but they all draw from the same paycheck. When one cost rises, something
else must give. A higher rent or mortgage payment leaves less money for
groceries, utilities, or medical care. The United
Way of North Carolina’s ALICE 2025 Report shows that about 39 percent of Catawba County households
earn less than what it takes to cover basic living costs. That survival budget
for a family of four is $67,860
a year, while the median
household income is $62,400, according to the same report. That
means the typical household is already operating below the level needed for
financial stability. For many residents, the goal is not to get ahead but
simply to stay even.
Home costs set
the tone for every other part of a household budget. When the monthly payment
rises, there is no easy way to offset it. The North Carolina Department of Commerce’s 2024 Catawba County
Profile lists the median home price in Hickory at about $265,000, and the
average rent at roughly
$1,180 a month. Mortgage rates that were around 3 percent a few
years ago now average between 6 and 7 percent. At those rates, the monthly
payment for a modest home can exceed rent by several hundred dollars.
Inventory has
remained low because demand from retirees and remote workers continues to
outpace what local wages can support. For many working families, homeownership
has turned from a normal next step into a long wait. Housing has become the
gatekeeper of stability: when the cost of owning or renting a home rises, other
household expenses quickly follow.
City planning
records show that Hickory is already exploring zoning updates for smaller lots,
mixed-income developments, and accessory dwelling units. These are practical
moves that can increase supply without major cost to taxpayers. The city cannot
set wage levels, but it can make it easier for builders to produce entry-level
homes. Each additional attainable unit helps a family remain in the community
instead of moving farther out to find something affordable.
Rising food
costs continue to strain household budgets across Catawba County. According to United Way of North Carolina’s ALICE 2025
Report, food expenses have increased by about 50 percent over the past
decade, with most of that growth occurring after 2020. Prices have leveled
somewhat in 2025, but wages have not kept pace. Families now make choices based
on cost rather than nutrition, and those trade-offs carry health consequences.
The Catawba County Community
Health Assessment 2023 reports a continued rise in diabetes and
hypertension, conditions closely tied to diet and limited access to fresh food.
Some parts of
Hickory and the surrounding county remain several miles from a full-service
grocery store. In those neighborhoods, convenience stores and fast-food outlets
fill the gap left by distance and price. What begins as a financial compromise
at the register becomes a public-health cost later.
Food security
is no longer only a matter of charity. It affects workforce reliability,
classroom performance, and medical spending. Local governments can help by
supporting neighborhood markets, school-based meal programs, and transportation
links that make fresh food reachable. Each small improvement in access and
affordability reduces long-term health costs for the community as a whole.
Energy costs
have become a defining part of household economics in Hickory. According to Duke Energy Carolinas filings
and U.S. Energy Information
Administration data, residential electricity rates have increased
about 40 percent since 2000,
while the average household bill has risen from around $80 to about $180 per month. This
jump comes not only from higher base rates but also from additional riders and
fees that recover fuel costs and system upgrades.
Across the
western Piedmont, industrial expansion and new data centers promise jobs but
also increase overall demand for electricity. The costs of meeting that demand
often appear in residential bills long before the new infrastructure is
complete. The Energy
Information Administration reports that the average U.S. household
now spends 10 to 12 percent
of income on utilities, about three times the traditional
affordability standard.
For households
above the median income, this increase is a budget concern. For families at or
below the ALICE 2025
survival threshold, it forces choices between utilities, groceries, and health
care. Local programs that help weatherize homes or offer direct payment
assistance remain the quickest form of relief. Greater transparency from power
providers on fuel adjustments and service riders would also help families plan
ahead. Every small reduction in monthly energy costs acts as a quiet raise for
those who need it most.
Health care is
the expense that families can delay the least. The Catawba County Community Health Assessment 2023
shows that 31 percent of
adults postpone medical care because of cost, and 14 percent remain uninsured.
The United Way of North
Carolina’s ALICE 2025 Report budgets about $735 a month for a family of four,
or roughly 13 percent of
total living expenses, just for health coverage and basic
out-of-pocket costs. When dental care, prescriptions, and deductibles are
added, many households spend more
than 15 percent of their income on health alone.
Delaying care
quickly becomes expensive. What begins as an untreated condition can lead to
missed work, lost wages, and medical debt that follows a family for years. For
a community that depends on a stable workforce, access to affordable primary
care is not charity—it is infrastructure.
Local options
already exist to reduce the burden. Preventive clinics, mobile screening units,
and clear hospital pricing help residents seek care before small problems
become emergencies. Each visit that prevents an emergency-room trip or a
collection notice saves money for both families and public programs. Health
systems that are easier to reach and understand are also stronger economic
assets, keeping more people healthy, working, and insured.
6. The
Ledger and Its Distribution
When the basic
costs of housing, food, energy, and health are added together, they account for
about 80 percent of what a
median family earns each month. The remaining 20 percent must
cover transportation, taxes, loan payments, child care, and any savings. That
thin margin determines how secure or fragile a household feels.
Based on the Household Comfort Index drawn
from the ALICE 2025
data, Hickory’s households fall into three groups. Around 20 percent are considered comfortable,
meaning they have enough income to meet expenses and build some savings. About 40 percent are tenuous,
meeting bills each month but with little cushion for emergencies. The remaining
40 percent are strained,
regularly falling short of basic costs.
This
distribution is more than a statistic; it shows up in local schools, clinics,
and service agencies that see the same families cycling in and out of
stability. The difference between comfort and crisis can be a single car
repair, utility spike, or medical bill. For many residents, one unexpected
expense now determines whether the budget balances or breaks.
7.
Restoring Margin Inside the Paycheck
The path to
improvement does not require sweeping policy or new slogans. It requires steady
administration. Local governments already manage many of the tools that can
widen or narrow the household margin.
On housing, cities can
permit smaller homes, reduce permitting delays, and update zoning so that more
entry-level construction is possible. Every unit built at a reasonable price
adds stability to the local workforce.
On food, counties and cities
can support local growers, neighborhood markets, and school-based meal
programs. Small supply improvements reduce the cost and distance of access,
especially in neighborhoods that have few full-service grocery options.
On energy, the most direct
relief comes from weatherization programs and billing transparency. Households
need to see exactly how rate riders and fees affect their totals. Investments
in efficiency save residents money and reduce the strain on the grid.
On health, county health
departments can direct more of their grant funding toward preventive care and
urgent-care coverage. Treating small problems early keeps families out of debt
and employers from losing workers to avoidable illness.
Each of these
steps strengthens solvency from the bottom up rather than waiting for federal
or state intervention. The process is incremental but measurable. Expanding the
margin inside the paycheck is the simplest definition of progress.
8. The
Measure of Continuity
Hickory’s
current budget already shows an understanding of these pressures. Line items
for energy assistance,
workforce development,
and zoning reform
are not large, but they are deliberate. Each represents a practical step toward
keeping local households solvent. These measures preserve the city’s social
infrastructure—the people who teach, serve, build, and keep the community running.
A policy bias
toward household solvency is not an act of charity; it is a requirement for
continuity. Growth that ignores the financial limits of its residents is only
surface progress—new buildings on top of budgets that do not balance. Stability
comes from keeping families secure enough to stay.
The reporting
over the past month makes one fact clear: the arithmetic of survival has become
public business. The ledger of Hickory’s comfort is shared by everyone who
lives and works here. Whether the next set of numbers shows improvement or
decline will depend on how seriously the city applies what the data already
tell us.
My Own Time Ω
I’ve lived in
Hickory long enough to remember when steadiness was expected. Most families
weren’t wealthy, but stability was built into everyday life—regular work, a
mortgage that could be paid on one income, and a future that made sense. We
lived in the wide middle between struggle and privilege. We weren’t rich, but
we didn’t worry about the basics. What has changed, especially in the past few
years, is how fragile that middle has become and how quickly stability can turn
into uncertainty.
Writing this
series has forced me to see that change as something lived, not just measured.
Around town, people don’t talk about “getting ahead” anymore—they talk about
making payments. The details differ, but the pattern is the same: a homeowner
putting off repairs, a retiree watching the power bill rise, a young couple who
never eats out and stretches every dollar. The math is tight for nearly
everyone, and that pressure has changed how Hickory sees itself.
I grew up in a
Hickory built on furniture and textiles, where people trusted the next shift
and the value of their own work. That economy demanded endurance, but it
rewarded it. When we lost much of that industrial base, the city had to adapt.
The new economy—technology parks, data centers, and logistics hubs—looks
impressive at groundbreakings and ribbon cuttings, but it hasn’t replaced what
was lost. Too many of the new jobs are service positions that lack the
steadiness of the old trades. The result is more activity, but less security.
When I use the
term Shrinking Center,
I’m not describing a theory. I’m describing the gap between how Hickory used to
work and how it works now—the space between having enough and choosing which
bill to pay first. You can see it in the small decisions people make every day:
renting longer, driving less, delaying medical or dental care. Few families
have much of a rainy-day fund anymore. This is what happens when wages don’t
keep up with costs and people quietly slide down the economic ladder.
The Household Comfort Index
explains what that slide looks like. About one-fifth of households in Hickory
are Comfortable—steady
income, manageable debt, a little room to save. They are the anchors of civic
life, though even they feel rising costs. About two-fifths are Tenuous—working and
paying the bills but with no margin for error. This is Hickory’s true middle
class. A single illness, job change, or car repair can throw them off balance.
The final two-fifths are Strained,
struggling to keep up with rent and utilities, often relying on family or
public assistance. The numbers shift from year to year, but the pattern holds.
I’ve lived much
the same way throughout adulthood—below my means and not taking leaps of faith.
I don’t have a family to provide for, but I still worry about the future,
because after years of living here I’ve learned that you can’t count on much
financially except that the bills come due every month.
I’m not making
up the issues I write about. I know these people. I hear their stories and see
their realities every day because I live a common man’s life. If you haven’t
seen this, then you’re either insulated or oblivious. What separates most
people in these tiers today isn’t effort—it’s timing, health, and luck. That’s
the truth we rarely say out loud: the space between comfort and crisis is
shaped as much by circumstance as by hard work.
Writing about
these changes isn’t about nostalgia. Hickory is still a place built on skill
and problem-solving. People here know how to adjust when misfortune happens,
but adaptation without any cushion turns into exhaustion—first mental, then
physical—and that’s what many families are living through now. The same
resilience that once made Hickory’s industry famous is now wasted on personal
survival. These people, and their fortitude, deserve the same attention and
respect as any new public investment.
Much of what I
write here is therapy. It is an exercise in building a machine powered by faith
and hope. God helped me learn economics and finance, and He has provided me
with the skills and tools to communicate this to the public. A month ago, this
site had more than fifty thousand page views. That isn’t much on a national
scale, but it’s a lot for what many still paint as “a local blog.” It’s the
most attention this website has ever received. When I go through my exercises
with the AI programs to create this material, it shows me that this is not a
blog. This is a Civic Intelligence mission, and what comes out of it is
Intelligence.
Hickory can’t
control global prices or national interest rates, but it can decide how local
systems treat the people who live here. When our community supports smaller
homes, improves food access, or makes utility billing clearer, it isn’t
offering charity—it’s protecting its foundation. The middle may be struggling,
but it’s still here. It remains the yardstick of how the community is
performing.
In the years I
have spent writing on this platform, one lesson shines through: success doesn’t
just happen. You have to work at it. You have to make it happen. Success for a
community relies on wages that keep up with costs, on public policy that treats
households as integral to the well-being of the community, and on leadership
that sees that well-being as part of the community’s infrastructure. The middle
may be struggling now, but it remains the axis on which Hickory’s future
depends.
