Showing posts with label Monday Mashup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Monday Mashup. Show all posts

Monday, May 11, 2026

Monday Mashup: Economic Realities of Americans Ages 18–35 in the Mid-2020s

Why Young Adults Are Working More but Owning Less

The central fact of our current economy for people under thirty-five is that getting a job has become much easier than building any actual wealth. If you look at the mid-2020s, the job market for folks in their twenties and early thirties looks much healthier than it did right after the Great Recession. In 2010, unemployment for people between the ages of twenty and twenty-four was up at 15.5%, but by 2019, that number had dropped back down to 6.7%. You might think a better job market leads directly to a more stable bank account, but that isn't the reality for most young adults. While more people are working, they are still struggling to buy houses, their emergency savings are running thin, and they are carrying the heaviest concentration of student debt in the country. To put it simply, the jobs picture is looking up, but the asset picture—the things people actually own—is lagging behind.

Income has improved in real terms, which means that when you adjust for inflation, many young workers are technically making more than their parents did at the same age. For full-time workers between the ages of twenty-five and thirty-four, real pay was higher in 2024 than it was in 2000, 2010, or 2019. Even the youngest workers saw gains because the labor shortage after the pandemic forced low-wage markets to pay more. However, finding a job isn't the same thing as finding a career. By late 2025, over 42% of recent college graduates were underemployed, which means they were working in jobs that didn't actually require the degree they spent years earning.


This disconnect between working and building a life shows up most clearly when people try to start their own households. In 2022, the median net worth for families under thirty-five rose to $39,000, which is better than the $13,000 they held after the housing crash, but it's still very low compared to older families. In 2024, only 47% of adults under the age of thirty said they could cover a $400 emergency with cash, a sharp drop from 58% just three years earlier. Because they lack this cash buffer, many young adults are staying in the parental home longer; in 2024, 57% of people between eighteen and twenty-four were still living with their parents.

Young adults are responding to these pressures by changing how they live and work. They are taking on more gig work and side jobs to make ends meet, with 31% of gig workers reporting they would struggle to pay their bills without that extra income. They are also delaying marriage and children because they don't yet have the financial leverage to change their circumstances. The real bottleneck in the economy is no longer a lack of jobs, but a lack of portable security—things like affordable housing and benefits that move with you from one job to the next.

Before we look closer at the specific numbers, we need to understand how we actually define and measure this group of people.

Real weekly earnings trend for full-time workers

Age group

2000

2010

2019

2024

Direction

16–24, real median weekly earnings in 2024 dollars

$658

$621

$713

$744

Down in the Great Recession, then above prior peaks

25–34, real median weekly earnings in 2024 dollars

$1,002

$981

$1,038

$1,049

Flat-to-soft through 2010s, then modestly above prior highs

Notes and sources: Nominal weekly earnings come from BLS annual earnings table 41 for full-time wage and salary workers; CPI-U annual averages come from BLS CPI historical tables; real values are calculated by deflating nominal earnings into 2024 dollars. 



Wealth, Debt, and Housing

Now, if you want to understand how this actually looks on a paycheck, you have to look at the ladder people are trying to climb. There is a very clear line between how much you make and how old you are. In the first part of 2026, a worker between twenty and twenty-four years old was bringing home a median of $810 a week. By the time they hit twenty-five to thirty-four, that number climbed to $1,140. For the folks between thirty-five and forty-four, it rose again to $1,384. This tells us that while pay does go up as you get older, young adults are starting from a much lower floor. Even when their pay improves, they are still trying to bridge a wide gap to catch up with the people who have been in the workforce for a decade or two.

But those averages don't hit everyone the same way. There are still deep gaps in the system based on who you are. For instance, women between twenty-five and thirty-four earn about $1,029 a week, while men the same age make $1,223. That means women are making about eighty-four cents for every dollar a man makes. We see a similar split when we look at who is actually able to find a job. In 2024, young Black workers between twenty and twenty-four had an unemployment rate of nearly 12%, while the rate for Black workers just slightly older—twenty-five to thirty-four—was about half that at 6.2%. Asian workers saw a similar drop as they got older, from 9.3% down to 4.1%. The point here is that while the economy is recovering, it isn't erasing the old hierarchies. Some groups still face a much harder time finding stability than others.

The biggest asterisk on all this "good" news is something called underemployment. If you just look at the unemployment rate for recent college graduates, it looks fine at 5.7%. But the real story is that 42.5% of those graduates are underemployed. This means they have a degree, but they are working in jobs that don't actually require one. They found work, but they didn't find the career value they were promised when they took out their student loans. They are essentially overqualified for the jobs they are holding, which makes it harder for them to see a return on their education.

Finally, we have to look at where the jobs are actually coming from. The economy has shifted toward service industries like healthcare, education, and professional services. Between 2019 and 2024, we saw millions of jobs added in those areas, while manufacturing jobs actually dropped slightly and retail stayed flat. Young people are filling these service roles, which keeps the labor market moving, but these specific industries don't always offer a fast track to building wealth or buying a house. It's a market that is functional enough to keep people employed, but it isn't designed to help them build a permanent foundation.



Consumption, Family Formation, and Geography

If the job market is the strongest part of the story, then wealth is definitely the weakest link. Back in 2022, the median net worth for families younger than thirty-five was $39,000. While that is a significant improvement from the $13,000 low we saw after the 2010 financial crisis, it still leaves these younger families far behind older generations when it comes to accumulating assets. This highlights the core problem for young adults today: the labor market can be functional enough to provide a job, but it isn't yet providing a stable balance sheet.

You can see that lack of stability in how much cash people have for an emergency. In 2024, about 66% of adults between eighteen and twenty-nine said they felt they were doing okay financially. However, only 47% of that same group said they could actually cover a $400 emergency using cash or a bank account. That number is actually a step backward from 2021, when 58% of people in that age group had that kind of cash on hand. Even though the high inflation we saw recently has cooled off, many young adults have less short-term security now than they did during the pandemic recovery.

The situation with retirement savings is also concerning. Only about 40% of adults between eighteen and twenty-nine had a tax-preferred retirement account in 2024. The problem here isn't just that the balances are small; it's that a large portion of this generation has not even entered the system yet. Because money needs time to grow, missing out on those contributions in your twenties has a compounding effect that makes it much harder to catch up later in life.

When we look at debt, student loans are the one liability that is clearly tied to being young. About 26% of adults under thirty are carrying debt from their own education. But when you look at the economy as a whole, the biggest debt by far is housing finance. By the end of 2025, total household debt reached $18.8 trillion, and mortgages accounted for more than $13.1 trillion of that. While we can see that delinquency rates—which is just a way of saying people are falling behind on payments—are starting to rise slightly across the board, the official data is much better at tracking student debt by age than it's for things like credit cards or mortgages. We have to be careful not to assume we know exactly how much of that total mortgage debt falls on the eighteen-to-thirty-five group, even though we know they are the ones feeling the pressure.


Balance-sheet and housing indicators

Indicator

Most recent value

Comparison point

What it implies

Median net worth, families under 35

$39,000 in 2022

$13,000 in 2010

Recovery from the post-crisis hole, but still a low asset base

“Doing okay” or “living comfortably,” ages 18–29

66% in 2024

84% for ages 60+ in 2024

Young adults remain less secure than older adults

Could cover $400 with cash/equivalent, ages 18–29

47% in 2024

58% in 2021

Liquid resilience weakened after the pandemic peak

Tax-preferred retirement account, ages 18–29

~40% in 2024

Many young adults aren't yet consistently saving for retirement

Own education debt, under 30

26% in 2024

20% for ages 30–44 in 2024

Student debt remains concentrated in younger adulthood

Homeownership rate, under-35 householder

36.3% in Q4 2024

37.9% in Q4 2025

Some recent improvement, but ownership remains low

Living in parental home, ages 18–24

57% in 2024

Co-residence remains a major adjustment mechanism

Living in parental home, ages 25–34

16% in 2024

Even late-20s/early-30s co-residence remains significant

Notes and sources: Wealth from SCF 2022; financial well-being and retirement-account participation from SHED; emergency-expense coverage from SHED dataviz; student debt from SHED higher-education tables; homeownership from Census HVS; parental co-residence from Census families and living-arrangements releases. 



Adaptation, Strategies, and Subgroup Disparities

Now, we have to talk about housing separately because it's doing more than anything else to change how people live. If you look at the numbers from late 2024, only about 36% of householders under thirty-five actually owned their home. That is the lowest rate of any age group in the country. This matters because, in the United States, owning a home is the primary way middle-class people build wealth. When you can’t get into a house, you aren't just missing out on a backyard; you are missing out on the equity that helps you save for the future. It forces people to delay everything else—starting a family, moving for a better job, or just having a stable place to call their own.

Because housing and cars are so expensive, they are essentially crowding out everything else a young person might want to buy. In 2024, half of all the money a young household spent went straight into housing and transportation. When you look at the price of things like car insurance, which went up over 17%, and the cost of eating out, which went up 7%, you can see why young adults feel squeezed. They aren't spending money on "extra" things because their paycheck is already spoken for by fixed costs they can't avoid. They are living on the edge because they don't have enough cash left over to build up an emergency fund.














This financial pressure is also why people are waiting longer to have children. The birth rate for women in their early twenties has been dropping for years. Interestingly, since 2016, women in their early thirties are having more children than women in their late twenties. It's a clear shift in the timeline of a person's life. If you look back to 1975, about half of all people between twenty-five and thirty-four had hit the "traditional" marks of adulthood—meaning they had left home, found a job, gotten married, and had kids. Today, less than 25% of people in that same age group have done all four.

Where you live also changes the math entirely. If you live in a big city, the economy usually feels much stronger. About 48% of people in metro areas think their local economy is doing well, compared to only 31% in rural areas. People in cities are also more likely to have that $400 emergency cash on hand. But the catch is that those same cities are where the housing market is the most brutal. Even if you have a better job, the rent is so high that you end up living with roommates or staying with your parents just to make the numbers work.

The housing market isn't the same everywhere, though. In the South, for example, there were more empty rental units available—about 8.7%—compared to the Northeast, where it was only about 4%. That doesn't mean the South is cheap for everyone, but it does mean there is more "slack" in the system there. Every city is a little different, and how much you pay for rent versus how much you can earn is the main thing deciding whether a young person can actually start a life on their own or if they have to keep living with family.



How Young Adults Are Changing Their Lives to Handle the Economy

Young adults aren't just standing by while the economy changes; they are actively changing how they live and work to keep up. We see this happening in four main ways: they are finding more ways to make money, they are living in smaller or shared spaces, they are waiting longer to make big life commitments, and they are carefully choosing which bills to pay first. While these choices look different depending on someone’s education, race, or where they live, the general pattern of making trade-offs is the same across the country.

The first way people are adjusting is through what we call layered income, which is when a person stitches together several different ways to earn money instead of relying on one steady job. In 2024, about 13% of adults earned cash by selling things, and 9% did short-term tasks like driving for a ride-share or doing deliveries. While many people choose this work because it offers flexibility, about 31% of these gig workers say they literally couldn't pay their monthly bills without that extra income. This way of working creates a lot of income volatility, which is a situation where the amount of money you bring home changes from one month to the next. In fact, 41% of gig workers deal with this uncertainty, compared to only 26% of people who have traditional jobs.

The second adjustment is what we call housing compression, which happens when people live with more people than they might prefer just to keep their housing costs down. For many, this means staying in their parents' house much longer than previous generations did. In 2024, 57% of adults between eighteen and twenty-four were living at home, and even 16% of those between twenty-five and thirty-four were still there. If they aren't with their parents, they are often living with roommates or moving further away from their jobs to find cheaper rent, which forces them to spend more time and money on long commutes.

The third way they are adapting is by delaying major life decisions until they feel more financially secure. People are waiting longer to have children, and fewer young adults are hitting all the traditional "milestones" of adulthood—like having a job, a home, a spouse, and kids—at the same time. In 1975, almost half of people in their late twenties and early thirties had reached all those goals, but by 2024, that number had dropped to less than 25%. This isn't just a shift in what people want; it's a logical response to having low savings, high debt, and very little chance of buying a home.

These struggles don't hit every group of people the same way, and the differences are very clear in the data:

  • Education: About 87% of adults with a bachelor's degree say they are doing okay financially, but that number drops to just 47% for those who didn't finish high school.

  • Gender: In early 2026, women between twenty-five and thirty-four were still earning only 84% of what men the same age were earning.

  • Race and Ethnicity: In 2024, 82% of Asian adults and 77% of White adults reported they were doing okay financially, while only 65% of Black adults and 63% of Hispanic adults could say the same.

  • Unemployment: Black workers in their twenties still face higher unemployment rates than the average for all young adults.

Understanding these adaptations helps us see how people are trying to build a foundation on shaky ground. Now that we've looked at how they are responding to the economy, we need to look at the "Scope and Caveats" to understand exactly where this data comes from and what the limits of our information are.



Policy and Market Implications

When you look at all this evidence, the conclusion for the people making the rules is pretty clear: simply saying we need “more jobs” is no longer the right diagnosis. Most young adults are already working. The real problem is that the job market is healthy enough to give them a paycheck, but it isn’t yet strong enough to give them a path to owning a home, a career that matches their skills, or a steady financial life. The hurdles have shifted. Now, the main things standing in their way are high housing costs and the fact that their security—things like health insurance and retirement—is usually tied to one specific employer.

This creates a situation where a young person might be afraid to move for a better career because they can’t risk losing their safety net. To fix that, we need to build more houses in the places where the jobs actually are, and we need to create “portable security.” That’s just a way of saying benefits that follow the worker wherever they go. We also need better pipelines from schools to actual careers and tools that help people manage their money when their income goes up and down from month to month.

For the people running businesses or banks, the lesson is just as practical. If you are an employer who wants to hire these younger workers, you are going to have a massive advantage if you can offer them a predictable schedule and a clear way to move up in the company. If you are in the financial world, you’ll find that people are looking for products that help them bridge the gap between paychecks—things like simple savings accounts or help managing student loans. But you have to remember that many of these folks are in a fragile spot. They don't have the room in their budget for products that are too expensive or too complicated to understand. At the end of the day, the housing market—more than just wages—is going to be the main thing that determines where young people can actually settle down and start building wealth.

To really finish this picture, we need to get more precise with our research. Right now, our information on things like credit card debt and mortgage balances for specific age groups is a bit blurry. We need to be able to break these age groups down to the individual year and factor in how a person's race, education, and location all change their reality. We also need better ways to measure how many people are living with roommates or in other shared arrangements. Getting those details right is the only way to move from a general understanding of the problem to a real solution.



Monday, April 20, 2026

The Monday Mashup: The Shrinking Center: A Portrait of a Country That Forgot Itself

   I published this article on Medium last year:

4 min read

“The Caretaker” — Four generations under one roof. Mom and grandson wrapping up the evening in the kitchen. Daughter is working the evening shift at the diner. Great grandma’s is bedridden in the living room.

The story of the American middle class is no longer one of upward mobility. It is one of erosion. Not explosive collapse — just the quiet subtraction of security, one pay stub and one broken promise at a time. For those of us living in mainstream America — away from the coasts and the concrete canyons — the story isn’t theoretical. It’s personal. It’s visible in the struggling small business owner, the people working part-time and temp jobs, the church congregations with mostly empty pews, and in all of us with the make-it-happen ethos that now patch together what a full-time income used to cover.

This is what I call the Shrinking Center — not a demographic, but a condition; not a symptom, but a systemic unraveling. It’s what happens when hard work stops being enough, when loyalty to traditional values goes unrewarded, and when generations raised to believe in dignity-through-effort now find themselves floating in a system that no longer recognizes their worth.

A Changed Landscape, Not by Accident

The America we believed in — where trades led to pensions, where teachers earned respect, where a single income could raise a family — has not been misplaced. It has been overwritten. Businesses no longer invest in employees. They invest in yield. Money is no longer a tool of production; it is an end in itself — disconnected from labor, from land, from people.

Globalization, financialization, and cultural drift didn’t just reshape cities; they undercut the spine of smaller places like Hickory, North Carolina. In their wake, they left behind people still willing to work, still holding the line, but increasingly isolated from the rewards of their labor.

People like the Caretaker — a woman in her fifties who manages a household of three generations, none of whom can survive without her. She is nurse, cook, driver, and emotional ballast. She doesn’t draw a salary, but her absence would mean collapse. Her story is never told in GDP reports.

Then there’s the Modern Worker, a man in his forties with two jobs and no benefits. He drives at night, stocks shelves in the morning, and patches holes in between. He’s not climbing any ladder — he’s holding it upright so his kids might have the chance to.

The Ghost is more metaphor than figure — a once-proud factory foreman whose job disappeared ten years ago. He still lives in town, but no one sees him. He doesn’t volunteer anymore. He doesn’t vote. His silence is a kind of legacy in itself.

These are not hypotheticals. These are portraits from my own community. And they are far from unique.

Media Distraction, Policy Drift

National conversations rarely linger on these lives. The talking heads on television discuss identity. The cities debate abstraction. Meanwhile, the center recedes.

Public discourse continues to orbit around growth statistics, entrepreneurial mythologies, and the technological future. But the people who once built the foundation of this country — who kept its schools open, roads paved, and businesses honest — are being told their time is up. That they are liabilities. That they are obstacles to progress.

But what if they’re not the past — what if they’re the unrecognized present? What if the failure isn’t in them, but in the system that erased their role without replacing it?

The Weight of Persistence

What holds in this shrinking center is not wealth, but ethic. A code of presence. These people still shovel snow for neighbors, still go to funerals, still buy raffle tickets for the local fire department. They still carry themselves with dignity, not because the world rewards it, but because that’s how they were raised.

There is no bailout coming. No cultural pivot. What exists is a new reality — what it means to stand for something when the institutions you trusted have withered. That’s not nostalgia — it’s responsibility.

I do not write this from a desk in D.C. or a café in Brooklyn. I write this from the forgotten foothills of Western North Carolina — from a place that understands restraint, resilience, and the cost of silence. My work, including The Shrinking Center, is not about reliving the past. It is about documenting the pressure applied to those still standing in the middle.

We’re Still Here

The shrinking center hasn’t disappeared. It’s simply not visible to those who stopped looking. But we’re still here. Not waiting to be rescued, not asking to be praised. Just asking to be counted.

The warning is simple: the more we ignore the people and values that have historically held this country together, the more fragile our national story becomes. You cannot sustain a nation by elevating its extremes while neglecting its core.

The middle once held. It still can. But not without recognition, not without respect, and not without the truth.

About the Author
James Thomas Shell is the creator of The Hickory Hound, an independent commentary platform based in the foothills of North Carolina. His work focuses on the economic, cultural, and civic realities of America.— told from the inside, not observed from above. He is the is working on another book with a working title of The Shrinking Centera project documenting the quiet unraveling of working-class life across Flyover America.

Contact: hickoryhoundfeedback@gmail.com

The Hickory Hound — https://thehickoryhound.blogspot.com/

Hickory Hound on Youtube @hickoryhound

Hickory Hound on X @hickoryhound