47% (really 42.5%) of Catawba County's Population Works

When I did these numbers originally I compared workforce versus population. I should have compared Employed versus Population.

I have decided to do some more statistical analyzes of our area. These numbers do have some extrapolations, since our last guesstimates on population were presented for January 1, 2007. But, by rounding the numbers I feel that it is safe to say that we are very close to the numbers represented in this analysis.

The last unemployment data presented by the St Louis Federal Reserve was for November 1, 2008. New data should be coming out in the next couple days. The last data was released on January 7, 2009. Looking at the numbers it is safe to say that Catawba County has a population right in the area of 160,000 as of November 1, 2008. This is under the assumption that we are growing at a rounded off rate of 2,400 people per year -- as we have grown over the last several years.

If these numbers are holding true, then that would mean that we have some serious issues when looking at the numbers of total citizens versus those that are actually employed. As of 11/1/2008, Catawba County has 75,307 people in its workforce, the unemployment rate was 9.7%, which means that 7,305 people are out of work. With an estimated population in the county right at 160,000 people, we see that only 47.06% (actually 42.5%) of Catawba County's citizens were employed at the beginning of November.

To give those numbers some comparison and perspective, you need to look at the data from the spreadsheet linked below. In January 1990 there were 68,339 people employed in this county. As of November 1, 2008 there were 68,002 people employed in the county, The population in the county on 1/1/1990 was 118,945 people compared to 11/1/2008's 160,000 people. So that means that basically, while the population has grown by more than 40,000 people in the last 19 years, we have lost 337 jobs.

On February 1, 2001 Catawba County hit its Zenith as far as Workforce Population is concerned. There were 82,245 people in the workforce at that time, since then we have seen our workforce fall by almost 7,000 people. As of 11/1/2008, there were 75,307 people available in our workforce. Our maximum number of employed people was achieved on 6/1/2000 at 78,540 people, since that time we have shed more than 10,000 jobs to where today we stand today at 68,002 people employed.

The most devastating angle in the new research that I have started shows that less than 50% of Catawba County's populace is now employed. The numbers show that only a tick over 47% (revised to 42.5%)of our total population is currently officially employed. We went below the 50% mark after December 2006 (actually December 2001) and have steadily declined since. Compare this to to July of 1991, when 61.86% (58.58% in June 1990) of our population was officially employed. That means that nearly 16% of our population is not working, as compared to then. We had 38,500 people fewer living in this county then.

What do these numbers show? Well, one interpretation is pretty much self explanatory. We have seen our traditional manufacturing job base devastated without question. But, I also believe we have seen a perfect storm of circumstances that are leading us down a path that honestly could send us into third world status. We must reinvent this community to survive and there are right ways and wrong ways to go about doing so.

Why has our population increased by over 40,000 people, yet there are no jobs to show for it? That shouldn't make sense, but I believe it is partially due to the fact that we have been slowly turning our community into a retirement village. The perfect storm of this county's native population aging, along with an influx of retirees from elsewhere is contributing to a community where more people don't work than do. It is up to you to decide whether this is sustainable or not. I contend that it is not and we must try everything we can to get our demographic model back in kilter.

I love older people. My grandmothers are 94 and 86 respectively. I do everything I can for them. But I also see the inherent costs in aging. Can our county's health care system sustain the aged if they become a predominant demographic element in this community. What will it mean for the standard of living of the younger generations, if we are expected to gear our working careers towards fixed income economics? I really think that these questions deserve to be answered. What do you think?

Catawba County Population Working vs Not Working

Newsletter about the City Council meeting of February 3, 2009

This newsletter is about the Hickory City Council meeting that I attended this past week. City council meetings are held on the first and third Tuesdays of each Month in the Council Chambers of the Julian Whitener building.

At the bottom right of this page under main information links is a Hickory's Local Government link. If you click on that link, it takes you to our city’s website, at the bottom of the page you will see the future dates for meetings scheduled for this year.

At the top of the page, if you click on the “Documents” link, you will find historic Agenda and Minutes links. Agendas show what is on the docket for the meeting of that date. The Minutes is an actual summary of the proceedings of the meeting of that date.

Here is a summary of the agenda of the 2/3/2009 meeting. There were a couple of important items that were discussed at this meeting and the details are listed further below.

Invocation by Rev. Pat Pearce, Retired from First Baptist Church

Several Boy Scout groups attended tonights meeting from the Church of God, St. Aloyisius, St. Lukes, Church of Ascension. The Hound is happy to see this kind of participation and believes that the city is served well when youth are brought into the fold at a young age. The future of our city may well have been in attendance tonight. I only wish that we would see this along with other civic organizations more often. Maybe the city should promote this idea?

Consent Agenda:
A. Call for Special Meeting – Council-Staff Planning Meeting to be Held at the Catholic Conference Center on 2/24/ 2009 and 2/25/2009 at 3pm

B. Call for Public Hearing – Voluntary Contiguous Annexation of the Property of amp Creek Home Builders Located at 1938 Wallace Dairy Road and Two Vacant Tracts to the East (Authorize Public Hearing for 2/17/2009)

C. Approve Future Annexation Agreement From Roman & Victoria Procop for Property Located in Hickory Woods at 2615 36th Avenue Court, NE - requested to be connected to the City of Hickory’s water and sewer system without being annexed into the City limits and agree to be annexed in the future when the City finds it economically feasible.

D. Budget Ordinance Amendment No. 12 - To budget $6,579 of Parks and Recreation Department donations in the Parks and Recreation Special Events and Supplies line items - Donations are for the annual Easter Egg Hunt and for Track and Field supplies. To budget an $18,265 donation to the Patrick Beaver Memorial Library from the Lyerly Foundation Trust to help pay for the second self-check system, library brochures, senior outreach audio visual materials and replacement of dvd/cd security cases.

To transfer a total of $21,000 of Contingency. $18,000 is needed for the purchase and installation of new T-8 lighting throughout the Public Services facility. $3,000 is needed for a 2-year extended roofing warranty package for the main offices and shop areas rooflines at the Public Services facility. Transfer $880 from the Engineering Department to the Stormwater Fund - provides the balance of funds needed to pay Jewell Engineering Consultants ($1,985.71).

E. Grant Project Ordinance Amendment No. 6 - To decrease the Federal revenue-2008 Entitlement Block Grant by $19 and decrease the Community Development housing rehab expenditure line item by $19. The $19 decrease in revenues and expenditures will bring the City’s computer system software back in line with the Housing and Urban Development IDIS grant software.

New Business - Public Hearings:
Resolution and Order for Petition Filed by Attorney Steve Austin on Behalf of Timothy D. and Teresa P. Lail to Close a Portion of Riverside Drive Extension That Intersects With Lakeshore Lane - On 12/4/2008, a representative submitted a petition to close a portion of Riverside Drive Extension that intersects with Lakeshore Lane. This portion of right-of-way is no longer necessary for public use and appears that its closing is not contrary to public interest. It is recommended that the City retain a 25’ easement for any existing water and sewer utilities. Chuck Hansen addressed this issue. He stated that they property is outside of the city limits, but inside of the city's ETJ (Extended Territorial Jurisdiction). Unanimously Approved

New Business - Departmental Reports: Assistant to the City Manager Mike Bennett addressed the council in 5 specific areas and some comments on each.

1) Economic Growth and Transportation - Operation No Vacancy is an initiative set up to encourage entities to use vacant buildings. 2 Brownfield Grants that have been awarded to the city are under the review of a advisory group that is looking at 8 priority sites including the old Piedmont Wagon Building. Mr. Bennett addressed development at Fairgrove Business Park. He also addressed the redeveloped website. As far as transportation he addressed McDonald Parkway and 13th ave SE. He also addressed the issues involving the Clement Blvd project.

2) Natural Environment and Quality of Life - Striving to protect the quality and environment of Lake Hickory through the NorthEast Wastewater and Sewer project along with the Cripple Creek project. Code Enforcement fully moved to the Police Department and the staff has received full training on policies and procedures.

3) Operational Excellence - continue to reengineer service delivery, such as with radio meter readers to check water usage. Will cut down on labor hours. The city is also using compressed natural gas vehicles for some transportation needs, such as with the meter readers.

4) Vision and Leadership - 22 member Catawba River Coalition based on the interbasin water transfer and application issue.

5)Communication and Marketing - The new interactive website has received good reviews and cut down on phone calls to the city. City uses website, along with City Snippets, and Communication releases to broaden its communication with the Public. Working on an update of the city services guide. Over 3,000 hits to the new website, which constitutes over 30% more usage of the Hickory.gov website.

Council Questions: Ms. Hoyle asked about the decreased calls and Mr. Bennett said he believed that it could possibly be due to the Frequently Asked Questions section of the website. Mrs. Fox asked about colored brochures that have been released that discuss successes of the Hickory development. The Mayor asked about burying of lines. Chuck Hanson addressed what lines were feasible to bury and which were not. (Paraphrasing) He said the Embarq lines are feasible, but the Duke power lines are not at this time.

The Hound Knew that this was going to be a mundane meeting going in, but it still had some interesting points in this presentation. I believe that this interactive website will be vital to Hickory's development moving forward into the city's future.

We have to get this city moving towards a younger demographic. That doesn't mean that we are going to set the codgers out to graze in the pastures, but we cannot afford to let them hold us back. The future is ours and we will either grab ahold of it or we will see the risk averse older generation run over us and run this community into the ground. They could make it impossible to modernize this city, if we aren't more aggressive about demanding modernization.

Look at this website and all that it can do to make government more accessible, streamlined, efficient, and cost effective. Times change and we must embrace it. We cannot yield to those who are afraid of that change. We cannot run this city by the least common denominator. We must lift people up, not pull people down.

Is China Manipulating its Currency for Export Advantage?

Reuters 1/23/2009 (Blue Text are Links)
"The Chinese government has never used so-called currency manipulation to gain benefits in its international trade," AFP reported the Chinese Commerce Ministry as saying in a faxed statement.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary designate Timothy Geithner said in a written response to questions from a U.S. Senate panel that "President Obama -- backed by the conclusions of a broad range of economists -- believes China is manipulating its currency."

U.S. Treasury officials and members of Congress have long criticized China for keeping its currency, the yuan, undervalued, saying this undermines U.S. trade competitiveness by making Chinese goods artificially cheap.

Wall Street Journal 1/23/2009
Should Mr. Geithner win Senate confirmation, as the committee recommended, his choice of language will likely draw attention to Treasury's next report on international currency practices, due in April. U.S. trade law requires the report to identify any country that manipulates its exchange rate for purposes of gaining an advantage in international

"You don't want to be the bull in the China shop when it comes to currencies right now," said Frank Vargo, a vice president of the National Association of Manufacturers, which has long lobbied against China's yuan policy. "But...we all know the Chinese currency is deliberately undervalued." A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington couldn't be reached for comment on Thursday afternoon.

TIME Magazine 1/23/2009
Trade hawks in Congress, pushed by union allies and some manufacturing lobbies in Washington, have long pined for this. But the Bush Administration resisted, preferring to fold the currency issue into the broader biannual "strategic economic dialogue" (SED) started by former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. That less confrontational setting was more likely to produce results on the currency issue than any forum that smacked of the U.S. putting Beijing on trial for "manipulation," the Bushies believed. In fact, over the past two years, the RMB did rise nearly 20% against the dollar.

Geithner's rhetoric before the Senate raises the question: Is the less confrontational approach now history? The short answer: in tone, perhaps. But in substance, not a whole lot is likely to change.

Discussion on Wikipedia: (Value of the renminbi - Chinese Currency)
For most of its early history, the RMB was pegged to the U.S. dollar at 2.46 yuan per USD (note: during the 1970s, it was appreciated until it reached 1.50 yuan per USD in 1980). When China's economy gradually opened during the 1980s, the RMB was devalued in order to reflect its true market price and to improve the competitiveness of Chinese export. Thus, the official RMB/USD exchange rate declined from 1.50 yuan in 1980 to 8.62 yuan by 1994 (lowest ever on the record). Improving current account balance during the latter half of the 1990s enabled the Chinese government to maintain a peg of 8.27 yuan per USD from 1997 to 2005. On 21 July 2005, the peg was finally lifted, which saw an immediate one-off RMB revaluation to 8.11 per USD.^[18] The exchange rate against the Euro stood at 10.07060 yuan per Euro. The RMB is now moved to a managed floating exchange rate based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of foreign currencies.

On 10 April 2008, it traded at 6.9920 yuan per U.S. dollar, which is the first time in more than a decade that a dollar bought less than seven yuan,^[20] and at 11.03630 yuan per euro.

On 15 October 2008, the renminbi traded at 6.83170 yuan per U.S. dollar, which is a 21.8% increase and the highest rate since the removal of the peg. On the other hand, it traded at 9.19740 yuan per euro^[21] , which corresponds roughly to the rate at the time of the lifting of the peg against the US-Dollar.

Purchasing power parity - Scholarly studies suggest that the yuan is undervalued on the basis of purchasing power parity analysis.

• The World Bank estimated that, by purchasing power parity, one United States dollar was equivalent to approximately ¥1.9 in 2004.^[22]

• The International Monetary Fund estimated that, by purchasing power parity, one United States dollar was equivalent to approximately ¥3.462 in 2006, ¥3.547 in 2007, and had been expected to be equivalent to ¥3.694 in 2008.^[23]

Capitalization and Redistribution of Assets Project -- the C.R.A.P. plan

President Obama's plan does nothing to stimulate the economy. It is only going to get us further mired in a debt that will take a long time to crawl out of.

What this city, county, and the rest of the metro are going to have to understand is that no one is coming to our rescue. We will succeed or fail on our own and that is a good thing. We have been disenfranchised by Washington and Raleigh. It is us against the World and frankly I like it that way.

MSNBC shows no C.R.A.P. money targeted to the Hickory Metro Area

C.R.A.P. plan discussed "at a Glance" by the Detroit Free Press

President Obama pushes C.R.A.P. and another Tax Cheat

Easy Money discussed by the Wall Street Journal

Here is what Glenn Beck has to say about President Obama's C.R.A.P. proposal.

Catawba County Unemployment Rate hits 10.7%

I think we could see 15%+ in the Unifour area. Unemployment has nearly doubled in the last 14 months. I hope that I am wrong. Here is a link to all of the unemployment numbers for local counties.