Hound Notes: Jim Rickards is another Investor-Economist that I listen to. I first discovered him listening to King World News, six years ago when this downward cycle began. He has his finger on the pulse. He's a very educated and studious man.
I hold Mr. Rickards in the same regard as the late Bob Chapman. Mr. Chapman passed away a couple of years ago from cancer. You can go back and listen to Bob Chapman presentations, on various radio shows, on Youtube. The guy was prescient. Mr. Rickards is also prescient.
Our government has been great and kicking the can down the road, but they have bought us time to nowhere. If we had dealt with these issues back in 2008-09, then we could be growing again. No one can predict when the panic will begin, but people with common sense can see that it is coming.
Here is a montage of Mr. Rickards from three shows over the past week. The common themes are that the Dollars value is based on confidence and the Federal Reserve has taken that confidence for granted. When the Fed finally destroys that confidence, then it will lead to a panic as the Dollar collapses. We have been in a Depression since 2007 and it is structural. You can't solve structural economic issues with monetary policy.
Competitive devaluation of currency does not help exports. It creates inflation. The Fed can never taper. Last September was the last chance. If they tapered, they will taper into weakness causing a recession. This is what happens when you manipulate markets. Lower unemployment will not mean Fed will taper. Unemployment is going down for the wrong reasons. Workforce is shrinking. GDP is the sum of Labor Force participation and productivity.
Inflation isn't bad because of the lack of velocity of the money supply. We are in a Depression. Need structural changes and a change in confidence. Stansberry defines the jobs of today and structural changes. Rickards says we shouldn't lament the loss of the old jobs. We need to move on economically and create the new jobs. Bad debt hasn't been written off. We have copied what Japan did back in the early 1990s and they have never gotten out of their malaise -- 25 years later.
Allies are leaving the dollar, not just China and Russia. World Reserve Currency has collapsed three times in the past 100 years. After the system collapses, what comes next. Fed has has 15 policies since 2009. They don't know what they are doing. There will be a collapse of confidence. You can have growth in a Depression , but what we are seeing is a growth negative compared to trend. Historical trend is 3.5%. What we have seen is 1% to 2%. Look at the lack of Unemployment. Look at the EBT system -- modern day soup lines. You can put a panic on top of this and this is what he sees coming.
About five minutes into the film, Dorothy sings the song after failing to get her aunt and uncle to listen to her relate an unpleasant incident involving her dog, Toto, and the town spinster, Miss Gulch. Dorothy's Aunt Em tells her to "find yourself a place where you won't get into any trouble." This prompts Dorothy to walk off by herself, musing to Toto, "'Some place where there isn't any trouble.' Do you suppose there is such a place, Toto? There must be. It's not a place you can get to by a boat, or a train. It's far, far away. Behind the moon, beyond the rain..." at which point she begins singing.
(Wikipedia) - Pomplamoose is an American musical duo which feature Californianmulti-instrumentalists, real life couple Jack Conte and Nataly Dawn. The duo formed in the summer of 2008[4][5] and sold approximately 100,000 songs online in 2009.[6] They are known for their diverse music style which the band themselves refuses to put a label towards.[7]
Hound Notes: Last week I relayed an article about 6 behaviors that push people away. Below are the links to two more articles of advice related to behavior. These articles are intended to help you make positive adjustments to the ruts of bad behavior that we all are vulnerable to.
The first article describes what people do that makes them likable. This article defines 14 characteristics/habits of likable people. These would be people that we would define as charismatic and if you practice these habits, then you can become more likable.
The second article describes "10 Ways You’re Making Your Life Harder Than It Has To Be". This article centers around how people make life harder on themselves by thinking the world revolves around them. You get in your own way (preventing success) by personalizing everything in your life. The author describes himself as a social media consultant who through the creation of his website looked to establish himself as a "thought leader." He eventually decided to just start writing what he felt like writing; now characterized as a "Fleeting Thought Leader."
In reading the first article, you will take notice of some bad habits that you might be practicing that can turn people off. You also will have some 'a-ha' moments that will help you put a finger on what some others have done that turns you off and makes you not like them.
Like I said in the previous article, there is an epidemic of bad behavior amongst today's professional workforce. This translates into behavior associated with many of the politicians and other leaders of the current generation. I believe that the mindset of many of our leaders today is having a deleterious effect and is a reason for the bad behavior of the workforce (and the public) in general; It rolls downhill folks.
I am providing the bullet points to both articles.
The first set is what the author Richard Feloni conveys based upon Napoleon Hill's book "Think and Grow Rich"and his essay "Develop A Pleasing Personality," published in his forthcoming collection "The Science of Success." Please, if interested, go read both articles at these gentlemen's sites.
14 Habits Of Exceptionally Likable People - Business Insider - Richard Feloni - May 22, 2014 - Here are Hill's 14 habits of people who are so likable that others go out of their way to help them:
1. They develop a positive mental attitude and let it be seen and felt by others.
2. They always speak in a carefully disciplined, friendly tone.
3. They pay close attention to someone speaking to them.
4. They are able to maintain their composure in all circumstances.
5. They are patient.
6. They keep an open mind.
7. They smile when speaking with others.
8. They know that not all their thoughts need to be expressed.
9. They don't procrastinate.
10. They engage in at least one good deed a day.
11. They find a lesson in failure rather than brood over it.
12. They act as if the person they are speaking to is the most important person in the world.
13. They praise others in a genuine way without being excessive.
14. They have someone they trust point out their flaws.
The second set of bullet points:
10 Roadblocks to Happiness - Tim Hoch -June 18, 2014 1. You ascribe intent. - You assign bad intent to innocuous actions. You take it as a personal affront, a slap in the face. Happy people do not do this. They don’t take things personally. They don’t ascribe intent to the unintentional actions of others.
2. You’re the star of your own movie. - You are the star of your own movie. You wrote the script. You know how you want it to unfold. You even know how you want it to end. Unfortunately you forgot to give your script to anyone else. Lose your script. Let someone else star once in awhile. Welcome new characters. Embrace plot twists.
3. You fast forward to apocalypse. - I have a bad habit of fast forwarding everything to its worst possible outcome and being pleasantly surprised when the result is marginally better than utter disaster or jail time. Negativity only breeds more negativity. It is a happiness riptide. It will carry you away from shore and if you don’t swim away from it, will pull you under.
4. You have unrealistic and/or uncommunicated expectations. - Among their many shortcomings of your family and friends is the harsh reality that they cannot read your mind or anticipate your whims. Unmet expectations will be at the root of most of your unhappiness in life. Minimize your expectations, maximize your joy.
5. You are waiting for a sign. -I have a friend who won’t make a decision without receiving a “sign.” I’m not disavowing that fate or a higher power plays a role in our lives. I’m just saying that it is better to help shape fate than be governed by it.
6. You don’t take risks. - Two words: Live boldly. Every single time you are offered a choice that involves greater risk, take it. You will lose on many of them but when you add them up at the end of your life you’ll be glad you did.
7. You constantly compare your life to others. - A few years ago I was invited to a nice party at a big warehouse downtown. I was enjoying the smooth jazz, box wine and crustless sandwiches. What more could a guy want? Later in the evening I noticed a steady parade of well-heeled people slide past and disappear into another room. I peeked and saw a large party with beautiful revelers dancing and carrying on like Bacchus. Suddenly my gig wasn’t as fun as it had been all because it didn’t appear to measure up to the party next door- a party I didn’t even know existed until just moments before... Always remember what Teddy Roosevelt said: “Comparison is the thief of joy.”
8. You let other people steal from you. - The one possession you have that is more important than money is time. But you don’t do anything to protect it. Treat your time like Fort Knox. Guard it closely and give it only to those who deserve and respect it.
9. You can’t/won’t let go. - Sometimes you have to work at happiness. Some hurdles are too difficult to clear by simply adjusting your point of view or adopting a positive mindset. Do you need to forgive someone? Do you need to turn your back on a failed relationship? Do you need to come to terms with the death of a loved one? Life is full of loss. But, in a sense, real happiness would not be possible without it. It helps us appreciate and savor the things that really matter. It helps us grow. It can help us help others grow. Closure is a word for people who have never really suffered. There’s no such thing. Just try to “manage” your loss. Put it in perspective. You will always have some regret and doubt about your loss. You may always second guess yourself. If only you had said this, or tried that. You’re not alone. Find someone who understands and talk to that person. Reach out for support. If all else fails, try #10 below.
10. You don’t give back. - One way to deal with loss is to immerse yourself in doing good. Volunteer. Get involved in life. It doesn’t even have to be a big, structured thing. Say a kind word. Encourage someone. Pay a visit to someone who is alone. Get away from your self-absorption.
When it comes down to it, there are two types of people in this world. There are givers and there are takers. Givers are happy. Takers are miserable. What are you?
By 2045 'The Top Species Will No Longer Be Humans,' And That Could Be A Problem - Business Insider - Dylan Love - July 5, 2014 - "Today there's no legislation regarding how much intelligence a machine can have, how interconnected it can be. If that continues, look at the exponential trend. We will reach the singularity in the timeframe most experts predict. From that point on you're going to see that the top species will no longer be humans, but machines." These are the words of Louis Del Monte, physicist, entrepreneur, and author of "The Artificial Intelligence Revolution." Del Monte spoke to us over the phone about his thoughts surrounding artificial intelligence and the singularity, an indeterminate point in the future when machine intelligence will outmatch not only your own intelligence, but the world's combined human intelligence too. The average estimate for when this will happen is 2040, though Del Monte says it might be as late as 2045. Either way, it's a timeframe of within three decades.
17 Facts That Prove That The Quality Of Jobs In America Is Going Down The Drain - The End of The American Dream - Michael Snyder - June 30th, 2014 - Do you wish that you had a better job? If so, you are not alone. In fact, there are millions upon millions of Americans that get up every day and go to a job that they wish that they could afford to quit. Unfortunately, most Americans end up just desperately holding on to the jobs that they have because just about any job is valuable in this economic environment. Over the past decade, the long-term trends that are destroying jobs in America have accelerated. We have seen countless numbers of jobs shipped overseas, we have seen countless numbers of jobs replaced by technology, we have seen countless numbers of jobs taken by immigrants and we have seen countless numbers of jobs lost to the overall decline of the once great U.S. economy. Unfortunately, even though we can all see this happening, our “leaders” have failed to come up with any solutions. And since there are so many of us that are desperate for jobs these days, employers know that they don’t have to pay as much. The balance of supply and demand in the employment marketplace has radically shifted in their favor. So less workers are getting health insurance these days, less workers are getting retirement plans and once you adjust for inflation our paychecks have been getting smaller for years. Needless to say, all of this is absolutely eviscerating the middle class. The following are 17 facts that prove that the quality of jobs in America is going down the drain…
40% of unemployed workers are millennials - New research reveals the growing problem of youth unemployment - Wall Street Journal Market Watch - Quentin Fottrell - July 5, 2014 - The jobs market is improving, according to government data released Thursday, but millennials are still left out in the cold. They’re suffering more than any other age group, new research finds. Some 40% of unemployed workers are millennials, according to an analysis of U.S. Census data by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce released to MarketWatch, greater than Generation X (37%) and baby boomers (23%). That equates to 4.6 million unemployed millennials — 2 million long-term — 4.2 million unemployed Xers and 2.5 million jobless baby boomers.
New report: Low wage jobs continue to hold North Carolina families back
- See more at: http://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/2014/06/09/new-report-low-wage-jobs-continue-to-hold-north-carolina-families-back/#sthash.YUB2r5iz.dpuf
Student loan forgiveness may be coming in the future - CNBC - Sharon Epperson - July 6, 2014 - For many members of the class of 2014 who borrowed money to attend college, the clock is ticking on what is likely to be their biggest expense after graduation. They'll have to start paying back their federal student loans in November or December—as the six-month grace period that lenders give new grads comes to an end. But depending on their income—or lack of income, if they're still looking for work—some borrowers may be eligible for much lower payments than they'd anticipated... The Consumer Financial Protection bureau estimates that one out of four American workers may be eligible for income-driven repayment or loan-forgiveness programs, but many graduates still are not aware of their options. The "Pay As You Earn" plan introduced by the Obama Administration caps a federal student loan borrower's payments at 10 percent of their income, and the balance will be forgiven after 20 years of on-time payments. Borrowers who opt for careers in the nonprofit or public sector could have loans forgiven in 10 years. However, this payment plan is only available to borrowers whose loans were disbursed on or after Oct. 1, 2007. Borrowers with older loans may be eligible for an income-based repayment plan, which caps monthly payments at 15 percent of your income. Payments change as your income changes, but may be forgiven after 25 years. Or they may qualify for income-contingent repayment plans, where payments are calculated each year based on your adjusted gross income, family size and the total amount of your federal loans.
Illegal immigrants already being released to neighborhood near you - Fox News - Watchdog.org - Tori Richards - July 1, 2014 - Tens of thousands of immigrants who illegally crossed the Mexico border into Texas are in the process of being released into communities throughout the nation rather than being indefinitely detained or immediately deported, a congressman told Watchdog.org. The releases have already started and the Border Patrol did not disclose how many. At least 60,000 Central Americans have entered the country illegally this year, though some news reports say the figure is as high as 170,000. An effort is under way to place children in foster homes or with relatives already living in the U.S., said Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Texas. The adults are being given a “notice to appear,” something like to a traffic ticket that requires they show up for a deportation hearing. Following that notice, they are simply being released. Those who return for the hearing will face a federal immigration judge to determine their fate...
One
in five North Carolina families earn too little to afford life’s
essentials and move up the economic ladder. A North Carolina family of
two adults and two children must earn $52,275 annually to afford
housing, food, child care, health care, transportation, taxes and other
necessities, based on the Budget & Tax Center’s Living Income Standard (LIS) for 2014.
More than a third of two-adult, two-children families in North
Carolina earn less than that, and more than three-fourths of families
with one adult and two children fall below the standard, which varies by
family size.
People in families with incomes below the LIS are more likely to be
women (59 percent), working age (56 percent), and have a high school
degree or less (63 percent). Moreover, white North Carolinians are less
likely to live under the LIS than North Carolinians of color. Nine
percent of the total white population lives below the LIS while 23
percent of the total Latino population does and 14 percent of the
African-American population does.
- See more at:
http://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/2014/06/09/new-report-low-wage-jobs-continue-to-hold-north-carolina-families-back/#sthash.YUB2r5iz.dpuf
The Chart that Foretells the Future of Humanity - Warren Pollock - June 30, 2014 - A single chart provides insight into the future and it also governs the very basis of all my analysis and thinking. In this presentation I share with you this universal chart, show you what to look for, and what to ignore and discount as something unimportant.
How to Fold A Fitted Sheet - Most of us have, at one time or another, given up frustrated after the terrible ordeal of trying to fold a fitted sheet! LOL! Jill Cooper from http://www.livingonadime.com shows you a step by step method to make this process easier in How to Fold A Fitted Sheet. BTW, If you're offended by the "one of the biggest challenges" joke in the beginning, you obviously need to lighten up... :-)
