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Sunday, February 26, 2012

Economic Stories of Relevance in Today's World -- February 26, 2012

Silencing The Critics - paulcraigroberts.org - Paul Craig Roberts - February 20, 2012 -
Whose interests are being served by Washington’s endless and multi-trillion dollar wars? Certainly not the interests of the 50 million americans with no access to health care, nor the 1,500,000 american children who are homeless, living in cars, rundown motel rooms, tent cities, and the storm sewers under Las Vegas, while huge amounts of public funds are used to bail out banks and squandered in wars of hegemony. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suJCvkazrTc               The US has no independent print and TV media. It has presstitutes who are paid for the lies that they tell. The US government in its pursuit of its immoral aims has attained the status of the most corrupt government in human history. Yet Obama speaks as if Washington is the font of human morality.                The US government does not represent americans. It represents a few special interests and a foreign power. US citizens simply don’t count, and certainly Afghans, Iraqis, Libyans, Somalians, Yemenis, and Pakistanis don’t count. Washington regards truth, justice, and mercy as laughable values. Money, power, hegemony are all that count for Washington, the city upon the hill, the light unto nations, the example for the world.


Soaring oil prices will dwarf the Greek drama - Since last week's eurozone "grand summit", the headlines have been positive and, in the official photos anyway, the main players appear to be smiling. As such, the global equity rally goes on. - The Telegraph of London - Liam Halligan - February 25, 2012 - The International Energy Agency (IEA), the energy think-tank funded by oil-importing Western governments, tells us that crude demand is "declining remorselessly throughout the OECD [countries]". Given that the Western economies remain weak and the eurozone is heading for recession, the "advanced economies" are consuming less crude.             The fine print shows, though, that even IEA demand projections, which tend to be under-estimates, show OECD oil use falling just 0.9pc in 2012. Demand among the non-OECD countries, meanwhile, including the emerging giants of the East, is forecast to rise 2.8pc. Total global crude consumption, then, is still set to increase by another 1pc this year, mimicking the trend of 2011.             The "demand destruction" thesis is useful for Western governments desperate for cheaper oil – and it used to be true. Not so long ago, OECD oil use was so important that a Western demand slow-down was enough to lower global crude prices, so helping us recover. But rampant non-OECD demand now accounts for half the world total – and rising. Chinese oil consumption has recently surged at an astonishing 7pc-8pc per annum and the People's Republic is now second only to the US in terms of overall oil use. Misguided Western attempts to print our way out of trouble using QE are also boosting crude demand and pushing up prices, as savvy investors seek an "anti-debasement" hedge.             On the supply side, while attention focuses on geopolitical flare-ups, the important trends relate to geology and finance. Since the 1960s, the discovery rate and size of new oil and gas fields has fallen markedly. More than four-fifths of the world's major fields are beyond peak production. The output of the world's largest 580 oil fields is declining at a 5.1pc annual average. Strategic oil traders now worry aloud about falling pressure at Saudi's Ghawar, Cantarell in Mexico and other giants fields. The credit-crunch, meanwhile, severely cut investment in exploration and well development, which is likely to have long term supply implications.              While there's lots of hype about tar sands and shale fuels, these new technologies often expend more energy than they create, while causing horrendous environmental and water-supply problems. Conventionally-produced crude will remain absolutely critical, and demand for it will spiral, until mankind bans the internal combustion engine, outlaws ammonium-based fertilisers, dismantles the global pharmaceutical industry and learns to live without plastic. I can't see that happening anytime soon.                Geo-political issues are important, of course. A major Gulf conflict would obviously see oil prices spike. But crude is now expensive not due to political argy-bargy but because of the fundamental truths of demand and supply. Meanwhile, Western share prices keep rising.


8 reasons why gas will hit $5 a gallon this year - MSNBC - By Paul Ausick and Douglas A. McIntyre, 24/7 Wall St. - Two warring trends are pushing and pulling gas prices. On the one hand, Americans now drive less than at any time in the past 11 years. On the other hand, gasoline and oil inventories are at very low levels around the world, and traders believe that supply will tighten significantly. The fact that Americans drive much less will not offset an interruption of supply from the Middle East, a decision by refineries to charge more to turn oil into gasoline, or higher demand from emerging economies like China and India.              24/7 Wall St. reviewed the major reasons that gas prices have risen in the past quarter and analyzed whether the causes will improve or worsen. We have estimated how much each factor could increase gas prices. Together, those increases would be enough to push gas prices up by another $1.50.           1)Strait of Hormuz     2)Iran       3) Refiners raising prices     4) Other geopolitical risks         5)The EU may save itself         6) U.S. Economic Recovery          7) Summer          8) Supply Risk


Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling - Forbes - Louis Woodhill - February 22, 2012 - Unfortunately, the talking heads that are trying to explain the reasons for high oil prices are missing one tiny detail. Oil prices aren’t high right now. In fact, they are unusually low. Gasoline prices would have to rise by another $0.65 to $0.75 per gallon from where they are now just to be “normal”. And, because gasoline prices are low right now, it is very likely that they are going to go up more—perhaps a lot more......          In terms of judging whether the price of WTI is high or low, here is the price that truly matters: 0.0602 ounces of gold per barrel (which can be written as Au0.0602/bbl). What this number means is that, right now, a barrel of WTI has the same market value as 0.0602 ounces of gold.           During the 493 months since January 1, 1971, the price of WTI has averaged Au0.0732/bbl. It has been higher than that during 225 of those months and lower than that during 268 of those months. Plotted as a graph, the line representing the price of a barrel of oil in terms of gold has crossed the horizontal line representing the long-term average price (Au0.0732/bbl) 29 times.......            Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke uses a “core CPI index” that excludes food and energy to guide monetary policy. From Big Ben’s point of view, rising gasoline prices are not a problem. For the rest of us, they are becoming a big problem.......      Over the centuries, gold has been “the golden constant”. Eventually, all prices equilibrate with gold. This is why gold represents the best available standard in terms of which to define the value of a monetary unit. Forty-one years ago, when the value of the dollar was defined in terms of gold at $35/oz, WTI was selling for $3.56/bbl..........            During the 1970s, the toxic combination of a weak dollar, high tax rates, and onerous regulations introduced a new word into America’s economic vocabulary: stagflation. Reaganomics banished this word to the history books. Now, President Obama and Fed Chairman Bernanke are teaming up to give stagflation another try. It is not likely that Americans will like it any more this time around than they did 40 years ago.


GE “Forcing” Employees Into Chevy Volts - Gas2.org - Christopher DeMorro - February 20, 2012 - General Motors and General Electric are two companies that have been in the political crosshairs lately. GM stands accused of “crony capitalism,” while GE is under fire for paying no Federal income taxes in 2010. The two companies share more than that though, with GE placing an order for 12,000 Chevy Volts and other hybrid vehicles.               A memo leaked to Green Car Reports lays out GE’s plans for their new fleet of Volts, and as expected, it has some people crying foul.                    The memo, sent to employees of GE Healthcare Americas team explains that all sedan, crossover, and minivan purchases in 2012 will be replaced by the Chevy Volt. Only field engineers are exempt from having to drive a company Volt.                  GE will offer estimates for installation Level 2 Charging Stations, though all-gas use will be allowed when there is no electric option. Any employees who opt out of the Volt program will not be compensated for their expenses. Those who do choose to drive the Volt will be reimbursed for public charging and home charging costs, in addition to gas uses.

  
Lowe's offers buyouts to corporate staff - Company offers buyouts to staffers in Mooresville and Wilkesboro offices - Charlotte Observer - February 25, 2012 - Lowe's Inc., the Mooresville-based home improvement chain, is offering buyouts to corporate staff, as the retailer slows store openings, cuts costs and focuses on the digital aspects of its business. The buyout offer - known as a "voluntary separation program" - applies to corporate staff members at the company's offices in Mooresville and Wilkesboro. Lowe's gave buyout notices to eligible employees on Monday. Employees who take the buyout will receive a lump-sum payment, based on how long they've been with the company.           
The company did not specify how many employees it hopes will take the buyout, but Yenichek said "the majority" of corporate employees are eligible. Lowe's is one of the largest employers in the Charlotte region, with about 5,200 employees working at the Mooresville and Wilkesboro locations. Layoffs could follow if the buyout is not sufficient, Ausura's letter said. Lowe's has seen its earnings fall for three straight quarters, and its performance has lagged that of chief rival Home Depot. In Lowe's most recent quarter, the company's profit fell to $225 million, down from $404 million in the same quarter a year ago. Lowe's reports its fourth quarter and full-year earnings on Feb. 27.           The company has already eliminated about one manager in each of its 1,725 stores to cut costs. The company also announced last year that it was closing 20 underperforming stores, resulting in nearly 2,000 job cuts, and cutting the number of stores it plans to open by half over the coming years.


Roanoke mail processing facility to close - The Roanoke Times (Virginia) - Sheila Ellis - February 22, 2012 - The U.S. Postal Service will close its Roanoke mail processing facility, a union representative said tonight.            Lisa Kirkwood, chief steward for American Postal Workers Union Local 482, said workers were told at a meeting with Postal Service officials tonight that the facility will be shut down. It employs about 500 people. It's not clear when the closing will occur.                    Letters and packages will be sent instead to Greensboro, N.C., to be processed, resulting in slower delivery and the death of the Roanoke postmark.                    The Roanoke processing facility has been in jeopardy since last year, when the Postal Service, citing significant decreases in mail volume and a massive infrastructure, said it was considering closing 250 processing facilities, including those in Roanoke and Lynchburg.      U.S. Postal Service to Cut 35,000 Jobs as Plants Are Shut - By Angela Greiling Keane - February 23, 2012 



Who's announced most job cuts: Uncle Sam - MSNBC - Allison Linn - February 13, 2012 - Msnbc.com asked outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas to compile a list of the employers that have publicly announced the most job cuts from the beginning of 2007 through the end of 2011. Challenger relies on public announcements and news reports to compile its data and checks those against government-mandated layoff notices when available.                  The U.S. government topped the list with 112,800 job cuts announced over the past five years, mainly at the U.S. Postal Service and in the defense sector. The government tops the list in part because it’s the nation’s largest employer. The government employed about 2.8 million workers as of January, so the announced job cuts would have amounted to only about 4 percent of the total.             Even if you don’t want to work for the Post Office or Defense Department, the prospect of making a career with the federal government may be waning. The Labor Department projects that federal government employment will shrink by 372,000 jobs by 2020.



The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury gone rogue? Sounds like it.



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